Most people have seen the scary math on how unprepared humanity is for #COVID2019, particularly US medical infrastructure (e.g. masks, hospital beds, HT @LizSpecht). But I don’t think most people realize that this crisis, and S&P 500 drop, was entirely foreseeable. A thread. 1/11
The first layer of the onion is that we knew a global pandemic was coming. For just one example, in a 2015 discussion with @EzraKlein, @BillGates said a deadly flu-like pandemic is the most predictable disaster in the history of the human race ( https://www.vox.com/2015/5/27/8660249/bill-gates-spanish-flu-pandemic).">https://www.vox.com/2015/5/27... 2/11
This perfect storm has been obvious for years: wild animal trade and factory farms to transfer diseases to humans—often with antibiotic resistance, dense urbanization and low sanitation to incubate an outbreak, mass travel to spread it, and a lack of government preparation. 3/11
The second layer is that the international community could have easily began #COVID19-specific preparation in January. The first reported symptoms were on Dec 1, and observers had a general sense of its trajectory within 1-2 months of that (e.g. ~7 day doubling, R >> 1). 4/11
There are strong incentives that drive all sorts of institutions to lag. This isn& #39;t a context where efficient markets thrive. If authorities act as soon as there is evidence for, say, a 30% chance of outbreak, they face big repercussions when nothing happens 70% of the time. 6/11
Of course authorities won& #39;t drag their feet until the issue is obviously severe, but that& #39;s too late in the context of pandemics. We need to act even when severity is not assured, and that& #39;s just not something that can happen in the current socio-political system. 7/11
The final layer of this deadly onion is the public and the shortsighted news cycle. I know many people who still haven& #39;t done any sort of preparation. I see many men still not washing their hands in public restrooms, even when others are already quarantined here in New York. 8/11
People struggle immensely with the nature of exponential growth. Coronavirus might not peak in the US until May or later. We will get bored. We won& #39;t take the desperate measures that might be needed, e.g. mass production/distribution of ventilators and oxygen concentrators. 9/11
Worse, after this pandemic ends, there probably won& #39;t be sustained public and activist pressure to reform this broken socio-political system. We don& #39;t need to live in constant fear, but we need a general shift in resources away from tomorrow and towards the distant future. 10/11
#COVID19 is not the last and certainly not the worst crisis we face in the 21st century. This is why I& #39;m grateful for groups like the Future of Humanity Institute and Center on Long-Term Risk. We need a long-term, global outlook to take on the existential risks we now face. 11/11
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