cw: coronavirus, pandemic, death.

Coronavirus real talk time. Within 3 weeks, we will be seeing videos of overwhelmed hospitals in the US, with hundreds of deaths.

Here’s the director of one of the country’s busiest hospitals sounding the alarm. Thread 👇🏼
Y’all remember that I was active in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria in 2017.

EVERYTHING the Trump administration did to your fellow citizens in Puerto Rico, he’s doing again with coronavirus — to all of us.

The lying. Lack of preparedness. Blaming the victims. The corruption.
Hong Kong and Vietnam have done an incredible job at limiting the progress of #COVID19. Remarkable, given their proximity to, and travel with China.

They rapidly deployed the WHO’s recommended testing kit for widespread testing, with self-quarantine.

The US? We really messed up
The fact that the US relied for weeks on mere travel screening, rather than widespread testing and self-quarantine, is why the US about to have a major crisis.

Officials in Washington state just raised their coronavirus toll to 16 deaths, 15 of them elderly patients.
Today, more than 4000 new cases of COVID-19 infections were detected worldwide.

It's the most that have ever been reported in a single day, if we exclude the day when China retroactively changed their case definition.

We’re in the exponential growth phase, exactly as predicted. https://twitter.com/Datagraver/status/1236437122527133696
Current estimates of the impact of #COVID19 in the US do vary, but several models broadly agree with:

- 480,000 deaths
- 1,900,000 ICU admissions
- 4,800,000 hospitalizations

This is NOT the flu. The countries who have successfully slowed coronavirus have socialist health care. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1236196862157377537
The Italian government today announced a mass quarantine of the entire northern region of Lombardy.

10 million people. One sixth of Italy’s population.

Lombardy’s intensive care units are on the brink of collapse. Healthcare collapse is the greatest danger with #COVIDー19. https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/status/1236430756412567559
Trump’s administration botched their response to Hurricane Maria. Over 3,000 US citizens died in the aftermath.

Not trying to score political points. You cannot rely on this administration for accurate info. Here is Singapore’s health minister instead.
Why did I mention socialist healthcare in a thread about #COVIDー19?

Because we are 3-4 weeks away from experiencing the full, devastating impact of our completely-unique-in-the-world American for-profit model of precarity healthcare.

Watch this video.
Graphs of new #COVIDー19 cases per day in Belgium, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland.

Note the huge spikes on the right side of each graph corresponding to today and yesterday. Exponential growth.

These are countries which HAVE THE ABILITY TO TEST FOR THE VIRUS.

The US DOES NOT.
. @JeremyKonyndyk (follow him) wrote last week that we now know we’ve had community transmission of coronavirus in for weeks in WA state (16 deaths) —undetected.

We can’t test. The death toll in WA is higher than 16.

It means #COVIDー19 is spreading in your community already. https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1234180123244580864
In healthy adults, #COVIDー19 symptoms tend to be mild. You’ll have a highly contagious flu-like disease and then recover.

If you get even a little sick, you HAVE TO SELF-ISOLATE. Stay home!!!

Do NOT go to the hospital unless you’re extremely ill. They can’t test you anyways.
If you’ve been waiting for more coronavirus news in your city before putting your plans into effect

Stop waiting. Coronavirus is in your city.

But it’s not a zombie apocalypse. We’re not going to lose electricity, the water system will be fine.

Your biggest risks? 👇🏼
Forget this doomsday prepper stuff with coronavirus. You’ll have electricity and working toilets and clean water.

Here’s what I’d plan for:

1. Self-quarantine for 4 weeks.

Get some shelf stable food. Tap water is fine. Get 1 month of prescriptions filled (pay cash if u gotta).
2. Plan on you & immediate family being ill with #COVID19.

In healthy adults, plan for a bad flu with lots of coughing and potential for diarrhea.

Tylenol
Nyquil (sleep)
Tissues
Imodium (diarrhea)
Flushable wipes (your ass says 🙏🏼)
Powdered Gatorade

Anything to keep fluids in.
3. Short-term financial stress and lack of childcare with #COVID19.

If you’re an hourly employee or contractor & you can’t work from home, plan for having a 3-4 week cash crunch where money’s not coming in.

I absolutely PROMISE you that schools will shut down within the month.
4. Most schools will close due to #COVID19.

If you’re like most parents, school is a big part of your childcare strategy. You need to develop a fallback plan.

Talk to your family & friends. Work out a plan now.

Make a contingency plan for YOU being too sick to get out of bed.
5. The elderly, the chronically ill, and immunocompromised are at the greatest risk for severe illness or death from #COVID19.

Chemotherapy patients, transplant recipients, those taking immunotherapy for Crohn’s, MS, rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, etc. Also HIV+ with low CD4 count
6. I don’t know a nice way to say this.

Elderly people in institutional care settings are at GRAVE RISK from #COVID19.

In the Kirkland, WA nursing home: of 120 total residents, 26 (20%) have died since Feb 19 and many more are sick.

Of 170 staff, 70 (40%) showing symptoms.
7. Panicking and hoarding behavior.

People have a tendency to panic-buy and hoard stuff when they’re scared.

YOU DO NOT NEED TO HOARD.

The infrastructure isn’t collapsing.

Healthy adults are not dying from #COVID19 in large numbers.

Even in Wuhan, stores stayed open.
8. Travel, events, offices and #COVID19.

I’m absolutely GOBSMACKED that anyone running a conference or event in the US between now and June hasn’t cancelled it by now.

I’m sorry, I know it’s people’s livelihoods.

But Italy’s gov’t. just quarantined 1/6th of their population.
9. Events and #COVID2019

You can NOT trust event coordinators or your local governments to make good cancellation decisions.

LA just held its LA Marathon on Sunday. 25,000 runners from across the globe: sweating, coughing, spitting water.

They haven’t cancelled Coachella yet!
10. Misinformation and #COVID19

It’s important that you get reliable information about the pandemic.

The federal govt, under this administration, is not being forthcoming.

Watch out, also, for conspiracy theories. Don’t get sucked in by those WhatsApp groups.

Follow @zorinaq.
11. #COVID19 cooperation.

Even in pandemics, you gotta communicate and cooperate with your neighbors & community.

Share a Google Sheet with your trusted neighbors: everyone list primary, emergency, and medical contacts.

Talk to your elderly neighbors. Document their needs too.
12. The previous point is so important.

When #COVID19 hits, it’s your elderly neighbors who will need YOU.

If they know and trust you, tak to them. Get their contact info, their family’s contact info, and have them document their med history in an envelope on their fridge door.
13. Neighbor care.

From what I have seen, when the elderly get sick with #COVID19, they are basically incapacitated.

They might be bedridden and literally unable to talk.

So use that contact info to call/email/text them twice a day for a check-in.

No response? Worry.
14. #COVID19 disinformation, panic.

Remember: the goal of disinformation research isn’t to tell you not to worry — it’s to calibrate your reactions with reality.

Sometimes, countering disinformation means telling people they SHOULD worry.

#COVIDー19 is one of those cases.
15. #COVID19 disinformation, panic.

By 31-Mar-2020, the US will have between 1000-3000 coronavirus deaths. Mostly elderly patients.

The no. of hospitalizations will be much higher, stressing hospitals in some cities to breaking point.

The graph shows underreporting in the US👇🏼 https://twitter.com/Datagraver/status/1237013923800416256
16. Today’s #COVID19 chart by @zorinaq showing deaths per day is more informative than the cumulative charts on the news.

Look at the huge spike on the far right side showing last 24 hours. 245 deaths. This is a record (discount the one day where China corrected underreporting).
17. #COVID19 mental health

As with any major disaster (9/11, earthquakes, hurricanes), this pandemic brings potential for emotional & psychological trauma for us and our kids.

Watch your information intake — especially videos.

Take regular breaks from media. Talk to your kids.
18. #COVID

Data scientists and epidemiologists agree.

RIGHT NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR LIFESTYLES. Not tomorrow. Not next week. Not when the news gets bad. https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1237047880214392832?s=21 https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1237047880214392832
19. #COVID19 What to expect here.

The US is 2 weeks behind Italy in our progression of the pandemic.

Here are 2 chilling threads from two different Italian emergency room doctors. (major trigger warning).

They both describe the calm before the storm. 1: https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933820122890241
20. #COVID19 what to expect here.

Another thread from a different, senior Italian A&E physician (A&E is Accident & Emergency medicine, aka the folks who lead the ER).

Major trigger warning. Another doctor describing the calm before the storm, followed by complete overwhelm. https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538
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