professor gato here with this morning's thought experiment:

every year, a pandemic of flu and colds spreads through the world.

there is no plausible method by which we can stop this spread to every country.

trying to guess who brought flu to your city would be a fool's errand.

so, if as some of our more alarmed friends are claiming, COV-19 is more infectious than flu, just what are we trying to accomplish here?

we could NEVER "contain" influenza. no way, no how.

so how can we do so with something that is allegedly so much more contagious?

we can't.

so just what are we playing at here?

why all this panic and outlandish reaction? it's not going to achieve anything. this virus has already been running around the US for 6-8 weeks. if this is like the flu, there is literally no way to put that genie back in the bottle.

here's the dirty secret: people panic and want to keep panicking because panic feels good.

panic feels like doing something and when something scares us, we all want to feel like we're doing something.

but panic rarely leads one to do the right thing.

it helps you drown.

it also opens you up to demagogues and the perpetually panicked. it's how you wind up following some guy around old salem town with torches and pitchforks looking for witches to burn instead of realizing that maybe you ate some bad bread and are tripping like hunter s thompson.

many of you have never listened to an epidemiologist before

i have

please allow me to impart some insight:

epidemiologists are the permabears of bioscience. they're a triple paranoid version of zerohedge in a white coat

they have predicted 200 of the last 0 ends of the world

it's what they do.

as investors, think back to the first time you stumbled on a compelling permabear.

remember how scary it was?

remember how compelling it seemed?

remember thinking how does no one see this?

remember how much money you would have lost had you listened?

this is not any different. epidemiologists love epidemics.

they root for them because they want to watch and want to study.

they amplify the terror because that's where the grant money to do what they love comes from.

like anyone else: where you stand depends on where you sit

getting one to go on TV and predict pandemic is like getting a guy from boston to yell "GO SAWKS!!!" behind a newscaster on location.

seriously. try and stop them.

this is the moment permabears wait for: the crash that proves that missing 6 years of rally was "being early".

this is not to say they are always wrong, but their track record is pretty dismal. zika, dengue, ebola, we could go on and on.

in many, they outright got their facts wrong. (see: micro-encephalitis)

the track record of folks telling you to panic should be assessed.

these "experts," have you heard them speak before? what were they claiming last yr or 5 yrs ago?

you'd never invest in a fund w/out seeing a past perf.

you'd assume a manager on CNBC was talking his book.

why does a lab coat eliminate scrutiny?

(says the cat in a lab coat)

lots of stuff looks wild/compelling when you first see it

remember that

consider that this is your first exposure to epidemiologists

you have no developed resistance

99% of you are "that guy" who just read his first equities newsletter and thinks he's now in the know

develop your own opinions here, but do it critically.

remember this is all new material for most of you.

remember that you do not know these "experts".

remember than panic is often more dangerous that the original danger.

this is a panicky time.

trade safe. stay safe.