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233/12 (274/12)
338/17 (460/22)
459/19 (561/29)
564/22 (684/38)
752/26 (833/49)
1020/30 (1013/62)
1312/38 (1231/79)
This model apparently still underestimated the situation. I'll be posting my better-tuned model in the reply.
This model apparently still underestimated the situation. I'll be posting my better-tuned model in the reply.
Here's the better-tuned model projection:
1312/38 (1749/60)
1312/38 (1749/60)
1663/41 (2282/83)
2204/49 (2976/114)
2951/58 (3881/155)
*CDC admits other deaths not counted were found to be results of COVID-19.
This is the first time ever I feel REALLY SAD because of the accuracy of my model's prediction.
God bless America!
*CDC admits other deaths not counted were found to be results of COVID-19.
This is the first time ever I feel REALLY SAD because of the accuracy of my model's prediction.
God bless America!
Here's what the model predicts to 4/20/20 if no dramatic measures are taken:
3774/69 (5060/209)
4661/87 (6596/114)
Slightly adjusted death delay.
Are we slowing it down? One can hope!
Slightly adjusted death delay.
Are we slowing it down? One can hope!
Doing a separate graph for death projection only now:
I also started a model for Utah:
I am going to put all 3 graphs in the same tweet from now on.
6362/108 (8597/155)
6362/108 (8597/155)
Real Data: 3/18/20, 9345/150
Prediction: 3/19/20, 11204/209
Prediction: 3/19/20, 11204/209
Real data: 3/19/20 14250/205
Prediction 3/20/20 14600/279
Did I underestimate the power of the spread?
Did I overestimate the government's prevention?
Or is today just an outlier?
Prediction 3/20/20 14600/279
Did I underestimate the power of the spread?
Did I overestimate the government's prevention?
Or is today just an outlier?
Real data: 3/20/20 19624/260
Prediction: 3/21/20 19024/372
Looks like my model is already one day behind the growth curve. This is so sad!
Wake up people, this means at least 27.5 million people are spreading the virus in the US alone.
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Prediction: 3/21/20 19024/372
Looks like my model is already one day behind the growth curve. This is so sad!
Wake up people, this means at least 27.5 million people are spreading the virus in the US alone.
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Real data: 3/21/20 26747/340
Prediction: 3/22/20 24788/493
My model prediction is already one day behind. That's how much time we lost. Guess I grossly underestimated the current administration's incompetence!
But scale-wise, the model is still valid.
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Prediction: 3/22/20 24788/493
My model prediction is already one day behind. That's how much time we lost. Guess I grossly underestimated the current administration's incompetence!
But scale-wise, the model is still valid.
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
I am just gonna skip a day for confirmed and use that number for prediction.
Real data: 3/22/20 33276/417
Prediction: 3/23/20 42079/652
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Real data: 3/22/20 33276/417
Prediction: 3/23/20 42079/652
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Real data: 3/25/20 69018/1042
Prediction: 3/26/20 93050/1483
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
@GovHerbert @SpencerJCox @DrAngelaCDunn @JennyWilsonUT @slcmayor
Let's be a different trend!!
Prediction: 3/26/20 93050/1483
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
@GovHerbert @SpencerJCox @DrAngelaCDunn @JennyWilsonUT @slcmayor
Let's be a different trend!!
TODAY, AMERICA IS ON TOP OF THE WORLD!!!
Remember this day!
Real data: 3/26/20 85,653/1,290
Prediction: 3/27/20 121,224/1,944
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
@GovHerbert @SpencerJCox @DrAngelaCDunn @JennyWilsonUT @slcmayor
Remember this day!
Real data: 3/26/20 85,653/1,290
Prediction: 3/27/20 121,224/1,944
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
@GovHerbert @SpencerJCox @DrAngelaCDunn @JennyWilsonUT @slcmayor
Real data: 3/27/20 104,463/1,702
Prediction: 3/28/20 157,926/2,545
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
And thank you, Utah leaders, for quick actions to flatten the curve for Utah and save many lives!!
@GovHerbert @SpencerJCox @DrAngelaCDunn @JennyWilsonUT @slcmayor
Prediction: 3/28/20 157,926/2,545
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
And thank you, Utah leaders, for quick actions to flatten the curve for Utah and save many lives!!
@GovHerbert @SpencerJCox @DrAngelaCDunn @JennyWilsonUT @slcmayor
Real data: 3/28/20 124,464/2,191
Prediction: 3/29/20 157,926/3,329
Looks like we gained our day back. So I am not skipping a day in my prediction for confirmed now.
I am really liking the Utah trend!!
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Prediction: 3/29/20 157,926/3,329
Looks like we gained our day back. So I am not skipping a day in my prediction for confirmed now.
I am really liking the Utah trend!!
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Real data: 3/29/20 142,502/2,506
Prediction: 3/30/20 205,739/4,351
I hope my model overestimated, not that we don't have fast enough testing.
Utah is doing great though. Now we just have to convince people to wear masks.
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Prediction: 3/30/20 205,739/4,351
I hope my model overestimated, not that we don't have fast enough testing.
Utah is doing great though. Now we just have to convince people to wear masks.
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Tuned my model because my old model started deviating. Also adding two new graphs (in the reply).
Real data: 3/30/20 164,539/3164
Prediction 3/31/20 190,643/3623
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Real data: 3/30/20 164,539/3164
Prediction 3/31/20 190,643/3623
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
US:
Real data: 4/1/20 216,515/5,119
Prediction: 4/2/20 265,312/5,959
Utah:
Real data: 4/1/20 1,012/7
Prediciton: 4/2/20 1,107/17
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Real data: 4/1/20 216,515/5,119
Prediction: 4/2/20 265,312/5,959
Utah:
Real data: 4/1/20 1,012/7
Prediciton: 4/2/20 1,107/17
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
I am starting a new one for Utah only. So this thread will only be about the US.
Real data: 4/2/20 245,213/5,983
Prediction: 4/3/20 273,263/7,952
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
Real data: 4/2/20 245,213/5,983
Prediction: 4/3/20 273,263/7,952
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
