It's worth discussing the intermediate-term investing consequences of #COVID19. Not talking about the masks and vaccine plays, more about how this might outbreak reshape the economy over the next year or two.
So the first impact comes from existing supply-chain disruptions because of China. Those will likely be short-term in nature, perhaps one or two quarters. But we have no real idea yet how deep or impactful they will be, but likely significant in many sectors.
More profound will be any impact from social-distancing and reduced travel. Cruise lines, hotels, airlines, cinemas, casinos, and travel companies will likely all be hard hit if the bug becomes widespread. Transport and autos will be hit too.
So despite rate cuts I expect a world-wide recession, impacting all commodities as well. Banks with exposure to shipping and energy might well get hit too.
Given the seemingly bungled response by the Trump administration to this outbreak I expect Biden to be the next President.
So I think biotech should generally outperform despite being generally a "risk-on" sector. We have very loose monetary policy, zero interest rates, and no real impact from the rest of the economic downturn except some China impact on R&D and supply. Sanders threat likely small
I'm hard-pressed to think of other sectors that should do well. Anything to do with remote working ( $ZM) and online shopping ( $AMZN and $UPS ) should benefit. Utilities should hold up in a weak interest-rate environment. Credit spreads should logically widen.
Interested in responses, criticisms and suggestions for other medium-term long plays here.
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