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I don't know how many ways I can tell you my political analyses have been validated by last night. Actually I can...
#thread #sorrynotsorry
#thread #sorrynotsorry
Most fundamentally, I wrote in May that the Democratic electorate titled moderate, and the activist left was misreading it https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/14/joe-biden-2020-226872
Though before then, back in 2017, I explored the potential of a Biden candidacy based on "anti-populism" https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/23/joe-biden-president-2020-anti-populism-215638
Not that I completely discounted Bernie. In fact in my '17: "Why 2020 Will Be the Year of the Woman," I ended by noting unless voters consolidated around a single woman, we'd get a Biden-Bernie race https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/24/2020-year-of-woman-democrats-post-weinstein-kamala-harris-klobuchar-gillibrand-warren-215860
I was deeply skeptical of Beto-mania in 2018 https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/20/beto-orourke-2020-president-campaign-analysis-222639
I was deeply skeptical of Pete's ability to use Iowa as an launchpad to win the black vote, back in Sept. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/12/pete-buttigieg-fundraising-money-pit-228066
I warned Warren that "ideas" candidates rarely win https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/01/elizabeth-warren-is-winning-the-ideas-primary-thats-bad-news-for-her-226760
I was deeply skeptical of Pete's ability to use Iowa as an launchpad to win the black vote, back in Sept. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/12/pete-buttigieg-fundraising-money-pit-228066
I warned Warren that "ideas" candidates rarely win https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/01/elizabeth-warren-is-winning-the-ideas-primary-thats-bad-news-for-her-226760
In Dec. I discussed how both Buttigieg and Warren most likely needed to make some kind of pivot to move beyond their "wine-track" bases https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/12/12/democratic-candidates-2020-advice-buttigieg-warren-083981
In November I argued why South Carolina is more important than Iowa, because of its impact on the rest of the South https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/11/25/which_matters_more_iowa_or_south_carolina_141806.html
And in Jan. I argued, "Iowa Matters Less Than Ever." https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/09/iowa-caucus-democrats-2020-096337
And here we are.
And in Jan. I argued, "Iowa Matters Less Than Ever." https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/09/iowa-caucus-democrats-2020-096337
And here we are.
Could Biden still blow this thing? I suppose. But if so, it will be because of *performance* and not ideology. Bernie attacking him from the left will only show that he is still misreading the Democratic electorate (or would rather fight-and-lose than risk diluting his movement.)
But please go back and read (or re-read) this pieces. I am confident you will get something out of them. This ends this self-promotional thread.
KAMALA VP BONUS THREAD
Ranked #1 for Politico: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/04/why_kamala_harris_is_the_do_no_harm_choice_for_vp_143103.html
Kamala is the "Do No Harm" choice (for RCP): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/04/why_kamala_harris_is_the_do_no_harm_choice_for_vp_143103.html
Kamala is the Joe Biden of #veepstakes: https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1254041425190281216?lang=en
Ranked #1 for Politico: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/04/why_kamala_harris_is_the_do_no_harm_choice_for_vp_143103.html
Kamala is the "Do No Harm" choice (for RCP): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/04/why_kamala_harris_is_the_do_no_harm_choice_for_vp_143103.html
Kamala is the Joe Biden of #veepstakes: https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1254041425190281216?lang=en
