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A controversial take that lacks a robust enough sample to be said with any real conviction:
I think, when projecting college WRs to the NFL level, that contested catches are not only overrated, but that "being an elite contested catch receiver" might be an overall negative
I think, when projecting college WRs to the NFL level, that contested catches are not only overrated, but that "being an elite contested catch receiver" might be an overall negative
Basically, if you’re racking up contested catches, you’re probably not getting open a lot, which I think is probably way more important
And if you're not consistently getting open in college, you're definitely going to struggle to separate in the NFL
And if you're not consistently getting open in college, you're definitely going to struggle to separate in the NFL
"We'll repeat it again and again during draft season, but
downfield separation is the true separator for lack of a
better word at the receiver position. If you can't do that,
you better be elite at a number of other things." - PFF Draft Guide
downfield separation is the true separator for lack of a
better word at the receiver position. If you can't do that,
you better be elite at a number of other things." - PFF Draft Guide
Some of the top contested catch receivers (contested catches per total catches) over the past three NCAA seasons:
- JJ Arcega-Whiteside
- Marcell Ateman
- Kelvin Harmon
- Javon Wims
- NKeal Harry
- Riley Ridley
- JJ Arcega-Whiteside
- Marcell Ateman
- Kelvin Harmon
- Javon Wims
- NKeal Harry
- Riley Ridley
I don't know that the reverse of that stat is necessarily a pure positive (maybe being able to win in both areas is more important), but I certainly like the opposite end more:
- Hollywood Brown
- Calvin Ridley
- Steven Sims
- Diontae Johnson
- Andy Isabella
- Parris Campbell
- Hollywood Brown
- Calvin Ridley
- Steven Sims
- Diontae Johnson
- Andy Isabella
- Parris Campbell
In this class, this might mean being wary of a Denzel Mims (26%) or *maybe* even Tee Higgins (20%)
That's not JJAW levels (39%) but no one else really came close to that
Marcell Ateman was 27%. Hakeem Butler was 26%. NKeal Harry was 22%
Compare that to, say, Brandon Aiyuk (3%)
That's not JJAW levels (39%) but no one else really came close to that
Marcell Ateman was 27%. Hakeem Butler was 26%. NKeal Harry was 22%
Compare that to, say, Brandon Aiyuk (3%)
But again, my sample only goes back to 2017
WRs tend to underperform in rookie seasons, so JJAW and Harry still have a lot of NFL yet to play. Way too early to write them off just yet
Though Laquon Treadwell / Josh Doctson def would have been on this list with a larger sample
WRs tend to underperform in rookie seasons, so JJAW and Harry still have a lot of NFL yet to play. Way too early to write them off just yet
Though Laquon Treadwell / Josh Doctson def would have been on this list with a larger sample
