I am increasingly of the opinion that a WTO-only Brexit is a certainty, not only because the UK doesn’t want to align with EU rules (LPFs) on goods, but also HMG has a much more radical domestic ambition that goes way beyond Brexit.

If anything Brexit is a means to another end. https://twitter.com/mdouganlpool/status/1231981940883980291

I also worry a little, that we on the EU side are maybe misjudging what HMG wants.

Our assumption that HMG wants an FTA (which mainly covers goods) might be entirely wrong.

Therefore, idea that, like with backstop, HMG will back down and sign the dotted line, may prove wrong.

What if HMG doesn’t care about an FTA? It mainly covers goods, not services-which is 80% of UK GDP

HMG has not been in a hurry to do an FTA with US either.

Or at v least, what has HMG to lose by putting us on backfoot?

Either they get skinny tariff/quota free FTA or blame EU?

The weakness in HMG’s “project”, for want of better word, is the Union. For one, Scotland & Northern Ireland depend much more on manufacturing than England, for another Northern Ireland is covered by the protocol in withdrawal agreement. But if HMG doesn’t care about the Union...

I would like to stress that I am bouncing an idea, not a conviction. I am not fully clear on HMG’s worldview or “plan”, if even one.

But David Frost’s recent speech, for example, should maybe be taken more at face value than assumed?

Most of all, this is not article 50 anymore

PS since HMG has a majority of 80 for the next 4 years that leaves a lot of room for the executive to do what it wants in the UK system.

If HMG wants to pursue an even more services and high-technology focused economy, based on “regulatory autonomy”, now is its best chance...

Some will surely object: “the damage WTO-only would do to UK manufacturing, and in turn “red wall” votes”???!!

But if HMG doesn’t see that much a future in manufacturing, then FTAs not so important.

HS2 would actually meld the North to services-London economy...

...while the immigration plan also driven by “value-added” services, private services not public.

Throw in big investment in advanced technologies, with low interest rates...and a certain coherence suggests itself.

Plus, the free executive can in meantime attack BBC & judges.

End of a pretty random set of ideas, in the hope of making some coherent sense...but I am probably miles off...

As I said earlier, I am bouncing ideas, not a conviction. And am very grateful for the interaction on Twitter, as it really helps sharpen my thinking, thank you :-)

PPS final thought:

Don’t underestimate power of an executive with large parliamentary majority in UK system.

There is no written constitution.

EU will operate based on force of law. HMG will operate based on the law of force (not military per se, but coercion) if it has to.

In other words, I am not sure the Brexiteers in HMG have a plan, but I suspect they have an idea...which is probably worse.