Bot operation all tweeting "If you think about it, there's almost no one who caught the coronavirus, right? Lol
Rumors are a hell of a drug!" in Japanese. h/t @AmelieinTokyo

The government has been so mind-blowingly, malevolently negligent, I have no idea wtf is going on. https://twitter.com/AcademySteroid/status/1231781713769947136
How do you even start to explain this?
At this point it doesn't even matter whether covid is dangerous or not. The jp government wouldn't act any different if they were trying to shoot themselves in the foot, then shoot everyone else in the foot. https://twitter.com/MarikaKatanuma/status/1231440197721526273?s=09
https://twitter.com/jakeadelstein/status/1231891040866463744?s=19
We're doing our best over here, to... mmm... Start a riot https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1232847899840667650?s=19
Unsurprisingly, Japan lags way behind in tests per capita. All we can say is that hospitals aren't overwhelmed right now, so hopefully the social distancing measures have been working https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1238562151251533826?s=19
This belongs to this thread, as an archive for myself for when I wonder what went wrong, when.
Memo: today the head of the Olympics committee announced he got covid and the games are still not cancelled. https://twitter.com/HirokoTabuchi/status/1239726829033918468?s=19
And this as an example of what local governments did well. Honestly local governments have been way more level headed than the central government and they tried to do a good job. https://twitter.com/sina_lana/status/1239944511456833538?s=19
https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1240096996750495744?s=19
https://twitter.com/chemasarri/status/1240100220743979008?s=19
This flu curve is the most powerful argument in favor of "actually Japan is going to be ok" I've found.
Despite the numerous indications that the worst could yet be coming, this graphs does give me hope. https://twitter.com/GearoidReidy/status/1240575276267929600?s=19
https://twitter.com/NathalieStucky/status/1241135950593290240?s=19
https://twitter.com/jakeadelstein/status/1241354062055890945?s=19
Official government advice says you should avoid the *combo* of closed space, crowds, and chatty people.
Technically doing this ↓ is complying with govt policy, because it's an open space. Crowded trains also compliant if people don't chat. https://twitter.com/tara/status/1241265216261779456?s=19
Who could have expected that? Oh, just about anyone actually. This has to be the less surprising news of the month. https://twitter.com/UnseenJapanSite/status/1241362020949094400?s=19
Testing early and a lot is important, says everyone: https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-20

America is drowning from its failure to test: https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1241372383795183617?s=19
Meanwhile in Japan, for whatever mind-blowing, logic-defying reason: https://twitter.com/sina_lana/status/1239842292820611072?s=19
You wept at the insanity of the cult in Korea that infected a whole neighborhood through their untimely promiscuity. Behold, a stadium in the prefecture to the North of Tokyo, yesterday night. People call me paranoid, but what do you call this? https://twitter.com/tatsuyakay/status/1241595781997420544?s=19
How many of these careless people will hop on a crowded train this morning, elbow to elbow, mask used as a chinstrap, and cram themselves in open offices in all corners of Greater Tokyo and its 38 MILLIONS inhabitants, many of whom are elderly smokers? https://twitter.com/Tak89891/status/1241623768297947142?s=19
Japan only releases pneumonia numbers once every three years. The fact that we're in the middle of a pandemic that the government refuses to track isn't going to change that, apparently. https://twitter.com/jakeadelstein/status/1241900224685019139?s=19
Wakayama governor's ally in the fight? Osaka's governor, the guy who released live on TV a secret memo from the central government warning of explosive infection rates in the Kansai region. Transparency is the way to gain the trust of the people. https://twitter.com/UnseenJapanSite/status/1241362020949094400?s=19
Now that Canada and Australia have kicked the anthill and declared they would not send their teams to the Tokyo Olympics if they aren't reported, we might be headed for proper response to the crisis. https://twitter.com/jakeadelstein/status/1241979901013405696?s=19
Summarized translation: "While many famous places in the world are now empty, here in Japan there's still people walking outside. This makes us the SAFEST country. Why aren't TVs showing that?" https://twitter.com/PeachT_japan2/status/1242315267327197184?s=19
Next time that there's a tsunami warning I'm going to run right up to the beach, look at the advancing wall of water and say: "the fact that I'm here demonstrates that I'm tsunami-resistant. Why is no one acknowledging me?"
Me: maybe Japan is doing well because there's 4x as many hospital beds as Italy
Tokyo Governor: "Tokyo only has 118 beds ready for coronavirus patients" https://twitter.com/chocolat_psyder/status/1242399504390709249?s=19
Unnamed official: "Were not going to try to contain the infection and anyways it's too late. Plus, what's the point of telling people that they're infected?"

How to lose public trust and make everyone contaminate their grandpa in a nutshell.
People are now pissed because yesterday, 1 day after the official announcement of the report of the Olympics, Tokyo suddenly recorded its highest number of Covid cases (41); today 45. They find the timing suspicious (personally I don't think it's related) https://twitter.com/nhk_seikatsu/status/1243075171797401601?s=19
The timing is unfortunate for the government, but they didn't ramp up the number of tests so they're not more motivated to (not) track cases now than they were before.
But now the situation is so bad that the "no tests" strategy can't hide it anymore.
Tonight's presser:

"The capacity of Tokyo's hospitals is 118 beds in total; with 41 cases yesterday and 47 cases today, does it mean that we're already at capacity?"

Answer: "Well, for now everyone has a bed..." 🥴
Despite the (weak) call by Tokyo's Governor to limit unecessary risks, today the Prime Minister's wife was caught having a big picnic under flowering cherry trees. TV encouraged people to go out and picnic. Who is supposed to take anything seriously? https://twitter.com/motokorich/status/1243161854999818241?s=20
I hesitated to share this, but I think it's more credible than whatever the government is pretending to do or what fantasies outside journalists pass as facts.
It was clearly written by people who live here.
It's convincing, and very grim. https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/1243189503109607426?s=19
Imagine what should happen in terms of policies if this was true. Now imagine if it was wrong. Do you believe that the cost of acting now and being proven wrong is worth the cost of not acting and making this crisis exponentially worse?
3 weeks ago when I rescued a woman who collapsed on the train, other passengers recoiled in horror and ignored my pleas for help. She was wearing a mask. So was I.
Ironically, attitudes might change if we see a social meltdown here https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1243144205167362048?s=19
This weekend Tokyo is under a "request to stay home", on a voluntary basis. Weak measure? It's the strongest we've heard so far. I'm not out but hearing reports that people are still out and about and many shops are open. One chain of theaters closed, as well as 3 parks.
I'm torn between the bizarre hope that yes, despite gross mismanagement by the government, maybe Japan *is* special and magically immune and things will be fine.

And the idea that OF COURSE we're just like the other countries that didn't act and are now collapsing.
This is so encouraging. Now a storm is coming and tommorow, we'll have snow. So people will stay in.
2 days of reduced activity followed by a regular work week won't change the numbers much, but it will change people's perception of the crisis. https://twitter.com/Mulboyne/status/1243744119224020998?s=19
With numbers of positive cases growing everyday in Tokyo (yet number of tests stable at<100 per day?), the public opinion seems to be shifting from "we're fine because we're different from other countries" to a sense of proximity "we're in the same situation as NY on March 11"
Indeed it seems that at that point NY wasn't testing much either and had a similar number of cases.
Lots more conspiracy theories either, eg "the state covered the number of cases to protect their Olympics organization" (my take on this: https://twitter.com/sina_lana/status/1244100273443758080?s=19
Worryingly, people are starting to emphasize the baffling percentage of foreigners in reported positive cases, without taking note that the ministry publishes the number of positive foreigners but not the ratio of *tested* foreigners vs Japanese. Panic xenophobia here we come
Of course the worst people didn't wait until conveniently massaged statistics to kick foreigners out. (The majority of cases were already Japanese at the time, including one dude who went to infect bar goers on purpose after learning he was positive.) https://twitter.com/345triangle/status/1238776189482754048?s=19
Has anyone out of Japan heard about the "3 densities"? 3つの密.
The government has been repeating that as long as these 3 conditions are not overlapping you're not at high risk, and recommending to open windows in crowded trains and classrooms. https://twitter.com/JPN_PMO/status/1244231002257383424?s=19
The issue is, I haven't heard much about this from international sources, and it's unclear to me how much that is supposed to help. All I've found is one non peer reviewed paper from Hokkaido.
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