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A 'highly dangerous' planet of unsurvivable heat waves, city-destroying sea level rise, unthinkably destructive storms, and an ever-increasing risk of simultaneous global crop failures & extreme water scarcity is unavoidable scientists say.
When do we hit a 2°C-and-rising world?
When do we hit a 2°C-and-rising world?
Today's 1.3/1.4C world is already highly dangerous for 100s of millions of humans & many species.
As the average global temperature passes 1.5°C (betw 2022- 2034) then 1.6C, 1.7C, etc, the dangers will multiply with ever-increasing (one might even suggest exponential) intensity.
As the average global temperature passes 1.5°C (betw 2022- 2034) then 1.6C, 1.7C, etc, the dangers will multiply with ever-increasing (one might even suggest exponential) intensity.
It is vital to recognise the speed of heating so we can protect everybody:
'A global rise in temperature of just 2C would be enough to threaten life as we know it.
But leading climate scientists think even this universally agreed target will be missed' https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1159218532237893635?s=20
'A global rise in temperature of just 2C would be enough to threaten life as we know it.
But leading climate scientists think even this universally agreed target will be missed' https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1159218532237893635?s=20
Scientists including @AliceClimate @ClimateOfGavin, @piersforster, @Peters_Glen @KevinClimate and @autofac all stated that 2C was inevitable or virtually inevitable back in 2016 or earlier.
Some suggest 2.5- 4C is also unavoidable, as we'll see later. https://theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change
Some suggest 2.5- 4C is also unavoidable, as we'll see later. https://theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change
1.5- 1.9C is going to be a highly dangerous world, and already we see terrifying feedbacks in the Arctic and forests playing out earlier than expected which will exacerbate our predicament.
I think we'll hit 2C by 2029- 2043.
Let's see what scientists have to say...
I think we'll hit 2C by 2029- 2043.
Let's see what scientists have to say...
2C by 2029-2039?
'By 2030, under a business-as-usual scenario, Pliocene-like conditions become the closest match for most land areas'
'Under a moderate climate action scenario, like the lax pledges of the Paris Agreement, that could be extended..to 2040' https://grist.org/article/welcome-to-the-eocene-where-ice-sheets-turn-into-swamps/
'By 2030, under a business-as-usual scenario, Pliocene-like conditions become the closest match for most land areas'
'Under a moderate climate action scenario, like the lax pledges of the Paris Agreement, that could be extended..to 2040' https://grist.org/article/welcome-to-the-eocene-where-ice-sheets-turn-into-swamps/
We were heading for ~2°C by 2036 back in 2014.
Emissions have risen even higher since then, and they're still rising.
@MichaelEMann recently suggested 2C was challenging, but staying below or around 2.5C (terrible calamity) was still achievable. https://theconversation.com/limiting-global-warming-to-2-c-the-philosophy-and-the-science-32074?__twitter_impression=true
Emissions have risen even higher since then, and they're still rising.
@MichaelEMann recently suggested 2C was challenging, but staying below or around 2.5C (terrible calamity) was still achievable. https://theconversation.com/limiting-global-warming-to-2-c-the-philosophy-and-the-science-32074?__twitter_impression=true
'Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030.'
This article is from 4 years ago.
Energy demand hasn't gone down.
(I've seldom seen anyone refer to this report. What do scientists make of it?) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study?__twitter_impression=true
This article is from 4 years ago.
Energy demand hasn't gone down.
(I've seldom seen anyone refer to this report. What do scientists make of it?) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study?__twitter_impression=true
There are different ways of calculating where we are today depending on baselines. Some say 1.2C, others 1.3C or even 1.4C.
If we were to warm 0.3C per decade for 2 decades we'd hit 2C by around 2040.
1.5C by 2030 (if not before) looks very likely to me. https://twitter.com/djspratt/status/1217926087935586304?s=19
If we were to warm 0.3C per decade for 2 decades we'd hit 2C by around 2040.
1.5C by 2030 (if not before) looks very likely to me. https://twitter.com/djspratt/status/1217926087935586304?s=19
This thread contains a number of articles indicating that 3C by 2040 or 2050 is where we're headed (so 2C by 2029-43 I would imagine). https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1142458514490757122?s=20
2.4 - 2.9C by 2070 would suggest 2C by the 2040s as far as I can tell. https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1219778696216629249?s=20
1.5C by 2035 and 2C by 2065 strikes me as being unlikely as I think we're in a period of non-linear change.
Whether we hit 2C in 2029 or 2065, in terms of geological time the rate is utterly dramatic and will have grave consequences for much life on Earth. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1217482161734979599?s=20
Whether we hit 2C in 2029 or 2065, in terms of geological time the rate is utterly dramatic and will have grave consequences for much life on Earth. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1217482161734979599?s=20
James Hansen wanted to call 2C 'highly dangerous' in a paper.
Ice melt, sea level rise, and superstorms:
'evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming is highly dangerous'.
I'd add global food chaos. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/22/we-had-all-better-hope-these-scientists-are-wrong-about-the-planets-future/#click=https://t.co/bxgz8IzOCp
Ice melt, sea level rise, and superstorms:
'evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming is highly dangerous'.
I'd add global food chaos. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/22/we-had-all-better-hope-these-scientists-are-wrong-about-the-planets-future/#click=https://t.co/bxgz8IzOCp
We were at 1.2C around 2015.
We're at 1.3/1.4C today.
1.5C could mean total catastrophe is locked in, nevermind 2C.
In fact 0.5-1C was enough to trigger feedbacks like Arctic ice it would seem.
See thread for details: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1226667685309751296?s=20
We're at 1.3/1.4C today.
1.5C could mean total catastrophe is locked in, nevermind 2C.
In fact 0.5-1C was enough to trigger feedbacks like Arctic ice it would seem.
See thread for details: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1226667685309751296?s=20
This thread has scientists' opinions on whether we can avoid 3- 4C (see also the earlier thread on the latest IPCC climate models).
I'd guess we'll hit unimaginably horrific 3C before 2085, but we'll need to see what happens with emissions this decade. https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1164130930157654025?s=20
I'd guess we'll hit unimaginably horrific 3C before 2085, but we'll need to see what happens with emissions this decade. https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1164130930157654025?s=20
I'm accept that total catastrophe within decades due to feedbacks and climate sensitivity might be unavoidable or else virtually locked in. But I don't have a crystal ball.
Peter Wadhams thinks we'll exceed 4C.
Follow the trail if you dare
: 
https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1160953565806039043?s=20
Peter Wadhams thinks we'll exceed 4C.
Follow the trail if you dare
: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1160953565806039043?s=20
'By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4°C unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now. This is the startling conclusion of a study by the UK Met Office'.
From 2009. It's now much worse. https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1220734961373908993?s=19
From 2009. It's now much worse. https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1220734961373908993?s=19
