The whole world thinks we're in a race against time to address climate change. We aren't. The game ended a long time ago, the fossil fuel industry won. I'm 50 years old and time ran out before I was born (~325ppm, 45ppm above pre-industrial).
The faster we reduce emissions the faster the global temp will rise due to the reduction in toxic air pollution that kills millions each year.

This rapid warming will accelerate earth feedbacks such as ice melt and permafrost gases.
If all emissions stopped today, over several years we would experience a ~1°C global rise and more regionally incl US and SE Asia.
The vast amount of CO2 already emitted takes the earth inexorably to a Pliocene-like climate of 3°C+
As a result of lost reflectivity, the continuing retreat and eventual year-round loss of Arctic sea ice will produce the remaining balance of warming equivalent to two-thirds of 1 trillion tonnes of CO2. 1Tn tonnes is equivalent to 25 years of emissions at the current rate.
The process called Arctic Amplification makes the loss of Arctic sea ice unstoppable. The first ice free Arctic is physically possible any year.
Whatever action we take or don't take, we are expected to hit 1.5°C at some point from 2025 to 2031, depending largely on the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the amounts of cooling aerosols (air pollution).
The chance of blasting through 1.5°C by 2025 is at least 10% (Ramanathan). This is truly terrifying.
In 2020, the only real race is to try to prepare for what's coming (incl pandemic, food shortages, societal collapse) and protect children.
The idea that we might be able to stop warming at 1.5C or 2C or any other temperature is the biggest mass delusion in human history.
The whole industrialised world, aided and abetted by the IPCC, has somehow convinced itself that there's a carbon budget, aerosols don't matter, and the Arctic doesn't exist.
Join #ExtinctionRebellion to force govt to help us prepare for what's hurtling towards every living soul like an asteroid.

@XRebellionUK @ExtinctionR @GreenRupertRead @RogerHallamCS21 @SLunnon1 @gailbradbrook
You can follow @MarkCranfield_.
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