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How deadly is coronavirus?
Thread on #coronavirus #covid19 #SupplyChain
I saw this thread last night That led me to do some back of the envelope math ( the only kind I can understand) about the coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1231196376731656192?s=21 https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1231196376731656192
Thread on #coronavirus #covid19 #SupplyChain
I saw this thread last night That led me to do some back of the envelope math ( the only kind I can understand) about the coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1231196376731656192?s=21 https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1231196376731656192
I present the following not as an alarmist, but as someone who thinks that the coronavirus is going to be another hazard that we will have to navigate for the foreseeable future.
First, I take it as a given that the data coming out of China is uhm massaged just a tiny bit.
First, I take it as a given that the data coming out of China is uhm massaged just a tiny bit.
For that reason, I don't really give it any credence when it comes to how contagious and deadly covid19 really is.
I do feel reasonably confident in saying that the numbers being reported outside of China from open democratic societies is more or less accurate.
I do feel reasonably confident in saying that the numbers being reported outside of China from open democratic societies is more or less accurate.
Meaning, there are errors, but I don't think that there is a systemic effort to suppress or inflate cases.
So let's dive in...
According to
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
So let's dive in...
According to
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
As of 1030AM CST 2020/02/23 There are 76,936 cases in mainland China with 2,415 dead. Giving a mortality rate of 3.13%.
Outside of China, the number of reported cases is 1,887 with 21 dead, giving a mortality rate of 1.12%.
Outside of China, the number of reported cases is 1,887 with 21 dead, giving a mortality rate of 1.12%.
For comparison the mortality rate from the flu is 0.5%, SARS 14.5%, & ebola 40%.
But wait! The RMS just released a study
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
that says, based on their analysis of air travel out of Wuhan, we have missed an estimated 2/3's of all cases outside of China.
But wait! The RMS just released a study
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
that says, based on their analysis of air travel out of Wuhan, we have missed an estimated 2/3's of all cases outside of China.
Read that again:
WE HAVE MISSED AN ESTIMATED 2/3's OF ALL CASES OUT OF CHINA.
So if this analysis is generally correct, estimated total cases outside of China is actually 3132. (total known cases + 66% of total known cases or 1887 *1.66 = 3132)
WE HAVE MISSED AN ESTIMATED 2/3's OF ALL CASES OUT OF CHINA.
So if this analysis is generally correct, estimated total cases outside of China is actually 3132. (total known cases + 66% of total known cases or 1887 *1.66 = 3132)
Assuming the non mainland China mortality rate of 1.12%, then we should see 35 deaths. We know of 21.
If this goes pandemic, and all evidence points to a non trivial chance of that happening, then we could be looking at deaths in the tens of millions.
If this goes pandemic, and all evidence points to a non trivial chance of that happening, then we could be looking at deaths in the tens of millions.
That's not a prediction; that's simply what the math shows if 7 billion humans are exposed to a highly contagious virus while the carrier is asymptomatic.
Corrections welcome.
@niubi @EpsilonTheory @WRGuinn @OphirGottlieb @shellykittleson
Corrections welcome.
@niubi @EpsilonTheory @WRGuinn @OphirGottlieb @shellykittleson
#Coronavirus #SupplyChain #China #Amazon #spx
"Thousands of Amazon.com Inc. sellers who built their businesses using China’s cheap and efficient manufacturers are on the spot as the coronavirus shuts factories there." https://www.wsj.com/articles/out-of-stock-coronavirus-in-china-threatens-amazon-sellers-11582713005?emailToken=b1b1cbb633102f0ccaa25be726b489c00ke3zSDVRwHSKkA3ekIcSBEO553SlX94s6xnxcuq9rBz2fCO/W/jmd7USzFUYEjoFJGgQduNxBnnvkQAizbFh/sS6cwdQOyG7bUMWFnBtxGk5NQEouPlk/lm4GNJyvkA&reflink=article_copyURL_share
"Thousands of Amazon.com Inc. sellers who built their businesses using China’s cheap and efficient manufacturers are on the spot as the coronavirus shuts factories there." https://www.wsj.com/articles/out-of-stock-coronavirus-in-china-threatens-amazon-sellers-11582713005?emailToken=b1b1cbb633102f0ccaa25be726b489c00ke3zSDVRwHSKkA3ekIcSBEO553SlX94s6xnxcuq9rBz2fCO/W/jmd7USzFUYEjoFJGgQduNxBnnvkQAizbFh/sS6cwdQOyG7bUMWFnBtxGk5NQEouPlk/lm4GNJyvkA&reflink=article_copyURL_share
"I don’t think the Amazon platform has seen such a massive amount of inventory problems as we are about to see,” said Patrick Maioho, a Michigan seller of kitchen products who also advises others on manufacturing in China.
Mr. Maioho said a supplier in southern China warned him that even if the local government allows its factory to reopen, it will be short-staffed for weeks while workers from other provinces self-quarantine.
He recently ran out of two products that account for 30% of his monthly revenue, and said his product rankings are dropping on Amazon.
