How deadly is coronavirus?

Thread on #coronavirus #covid19 #SupplyChain

I saw this thread last night That led me to do some back of the envelope math ( the only kind I can understand) about the coronavirus.

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1231196376731656192?s=21 https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1231196376731656192

I present the following not as an alarmist, but as someone who thinks that the coronavirus is going to be another hazard that we will have to navigate for the foreseeable future.

First, I take it as a given that the data coming out of China is uhm massaged just a tiny bit.

For that reason, I don't really give it any credence when it comes to how contagious and deadly covid19 really is.

I do feel reasonably confident in saying that the numbers being reported outside of China from open democratic societies is more or less accurate.

Meaning, there are errors, but I don't think that there is a systemic effort to suppress or inflate cases.

So let's dive in...

According to

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

As of 1030AM CST 2020/02/23 There are 76,936 cases in mainland China with 2,415 dead. Giving a mortality rate of 3.13%.

Outside of China, the number of reported cases is 1,887 with 21 dead, giving a mortality rate of 1.12%.

For comparison the mortality rate from the flu is 0.5%, SARS 14.5%, & ebola 40%.

But wait! The RMS just released a study

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

that says, based on their analysis of air travel out of Wuhan, we have missed an estimated 2/3's of all cases outside of China.

Read that again:

WE HAVE MISSED AN ESTIMATED 2/3's OF ALL CASES OUT OF CHINA.

So if this analysis is generally correct, estimated total cases outside of China is actually 3132. (total known cases + 66% of total known cases or 1887 *1.66 = 3132)

Assuming the non mainland China mortality rate of 1.12%, then we should see 35 deaths. We know of 21.

If this goes pandemic, and all evidence points to a non trivial chance of that happening, then we could be looking at deaths in the tens of millions.

That's not a prediction; that's simply what the math shows if 7 billion humans are exposed to a highly contagious virus while the carrier is asymptomatic.

Corrections welcome.

@niubi @EpsilonTheory @WRGuinn @OphirGottlieb @shellykittleson

#Coronavirus #SupplyChain #China #Amazon #spx

"Thou­sands of Ama­zon.­com Inc. sell­ers who built their busi­nesses us­ing Chi­na’s cheap and ef­fi­cient man­u­fac­tur­ers are on the spot as the coro­n­avirus shuts fac­to­ries there." https://www.wsj.com/articles/out-of-stock-coronavirus-in-china-threatens-amazon-sellers-11582713005?emailToken=b1b1cbb633102f0ccaa25be726b489c00ke3zSDVRwHSKkA3ekIcSBEO553SlX94s6xnxcuq9rBz2fCO/W/jmd7USzFUYEjoFJGgQduNxBnnvkQAizbFh/sS6cwdQOyG7bUMWFnBtxGk5NQEouPlk/lm4GNJyvkA&reflink=article_copyURL_share

"I don’t think the Ama­zon plat­form has seen such a mas­sive amount of in­ven­tory prob­lems as we are about to see,” said Patrick Maioho, a Mi­chigan seller of kitchen prod­ucts who also ad­vises oth­ers on man­u­fac­tur­ing in China.

Mr. Maioho said a sup­plier in south­ern China warned him that even if the lo­cal gov­ern­ment al­lows its fac­tory to re­open, it will be short-staffed for weeks while work­ers from other prov­inces self-quar­an­tine.

He re­cently ran out of two prod­ucts that ac­count for 30% of his monthly rev­enue, and said his prod­uct rank­ings are drop­ping on Ama­zon.