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Coronovirus statistics have a tipping point that media is missing.
What happens when the number of infected start overwhelming state capacity for healthcare?
Eg., if you have 100 hospital beds available in a town and all get occupied, what will happen to the 101st patient?
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What happens when the number of infected start overwhelming state capacity for healthcare?
Eg., if you have 100 hospital beds available in a town and all get occupied, what will happen to the 101st patient?
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All current data around loses significance at this point.
The marginal patient and the marginal fatality rate of the untreated patient is key.
China seems to have hit that tipping point, and we have ZERO information of what happens when patients can’t access hospitals.
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The marginal patient and the marginal fatality rate of the untreated patient is key.
China seems to have hit that tipping point, and we have ZERO information of what happens when patients can’t access hospitals.
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That seems to be one of reasons for citywide lockdowns. There is no capacity available to handle the infected and hence rather than risk state-wide chaos, impose curfew.
Still to see a sensible media analysis of the situation on the ground in China.
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Still to see a sensible media analysis of the situation on the ground in China.
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India has very low healthcare capacity if it comes to hit us hard.
We need contingency planning and resources allocated.
Hope the warm weather protects us. #coronavirus
We need contingency planning and resources allocated.
Hope the warm weather protects us. #coronavirus
The playout in these Italian towns could become the way it plays out. https://apnews.com/cc5d1db9353b21297d987ef594f0facc?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow
20% of cases require intensive care.
https://twitter.com/who/status/1231111663375380481?s=21 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1231111663375380481
https://twitter.com/who/status/1231111663375380481?s=21 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1231111663375380481
https://twitter.com/helenbranswell/status/1231273722096553985?s=21 https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1231273722096553985
https://twitter.com/marykinva/status/1231256572229230592?s=21 https://twitter.com/marykinva/status/1231256572229230592
Coronavirus patients need a month or more on mechanical ventilators, and that's putting a strain on hospitals
https://twitter.com/business/status/1231720406635159552?s=21 https://twitter.com/business/status/1231720406635159552
https://twitter.com/business/status/1231720406635159552?s=21 https://twitter.com/business/status/1231720406635159552
India needs to start preparing. Now.
The 2% “fatality rate” is misleading at best. It’s a function of “hospitalisation rate”...where we will be inadequately resourced. https://www.indiaspend.com/covid-19-we-have-been-lucky-so-far-but-this-may-not-last/
The 2% “fatality rate” is misleading at best. It’s a function of “hospitalisation rate”...where we will be inadequately resourced. https://www.indiaspend.com/covid-19-we-have-been-lucky-so-far-but-this-may-not-last/
https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640?s=21 https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640
Italy’s healthcare system overwhelmed by the virus:
https://twitter.com/kobotic/status/1235053033488171008?s=21 https://twitter.com/Kobotic/status/1235053033488171008
https://twitter.com/kobotic/status/1235053033488171008?s=21 https://twitter.com/Kobotic/status/1235053033488171008
If 1% of Mumbai gets it we may need 1500 ventilators that we don’t have.
Italy’s healthcare system on breaking point, prompting NATIONWIDE lockdown, even as China heads to normalcy. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/virus-spread-pushes-italian-hospitals-toward-breaking-point
Every nation seems to have overestimated their capacity to handle Covid and underestimated what China did.
China digitally tracked citizens and imposed protocols and access controls at *individual* level.
Tough to do elsewhere.
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China digitally tracked citizens and imposed protocols and access controls at *individual* level.
Tough to do elsewhere.
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Frankly WHO should have spent sharing the extreme, almost invasive, measures it observed in China and raised an alarm and declared a pandemic sooner.
They should have announced protocols for nations versus just repeating handwashing protocols for people.
It’s a scramble now
They should have announced protocols for nations versus just repeating handwashing protocols for people.
It’s a scramble now
This tells you what WHO should have been doing:
https://twitter.com/gcaw/status/1237016344790532099?s=21 https://twitter.com/gcaw/status/1237016344790532099
https://twitter.com/gcaw/status/1237016344790532099?s=21 https://twitter.com/gcaw/status/1237016344790532099
24 Million people, 50 days, 120 specifical decisions and Taiwan is a case study in how to handle Covid.
Lessons for every city/state in India. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689
Lessons for every city/state in India. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689
One of our key priorities should be safety of our healthcare professionals ( docs, nurses, ambulance staff) who are handling Covid potentials.
Viral load matters and I don’t see them in Hazmat suits or other protective gear.
Viral load matters and I don’t see them in Hazmat suits or other protective gear.
A cold, sobering read on why social distancing to slow down the virus is not enough. It has to be severe containment. https://link.medium.com/e8OTFOAEQ4
