We all know that defensive matchups are IMPORTANT.

So, why aren't we more worried about it when it comes to college prospects?

I took a deep dive into the top RB prospects.

Stay patient with me, it's a lot of numbers - can get confusing, but I promise it is GOOD information.
I went through every game for each top RB prospect and looked at the run defensive ranking for each team played. I then averaged out the strength of schedule that each RB faced in 2019.

I used y/c allowed to determine ranking (only included gms vs FBS teams)*

See results below.
Lower # = Harder DEF Matchups

JK Dobbins = 41.7
Jonathan Taylor = 46.1
CEH = 53.1
Zack Moss =60.7
Cam Akers = 60.7
Ke'shawn Vaughn = 62.8
Eno Benjamin62.8
D'Andre Swift = 63.2

Dobbins faced the hardest run DEFs schedule, while Swift played vs the softest run DEF schedule.
It is important to recognize the % of their total rushing yards came against BOTTOM 25 run defenses in the FBS...

Cam Akers - 39.2%
Ke'shawn Vaughn - 31.7%
Eno Benjamin - 23.6%
Clyde EH- 21.8%
D'Andre Swift- 19.6%
Jonathan Taylor - 19.5%
J.K Dobbins - 13.3%
Zack Moss - 6.2%
While it is important to notice that 39.2% of Akers yds came against BOTTOM 25 DEFs (yeah, let's only worry about the line, & not recognize that schedule), it is also important to look at the # of games played against bottom/top defense.

Because you can't control your schedule.
Obviously if a player played 15% of their games vs bottom 25 defenses, they SHOULD have gained 15% of their total yards in those same games.

So we want to look deeper into who produced so much more than the % of games played vs these BAD defenses.

See below for results.
Higher # = Produced much of their production vs BAD run defenses.

Lower # = Stats are not skewed by BAD run defenses.

Cam Akers = 11.9%
Ke'shawn Vaughn = 11.7%
CEH= 6.4%
Eno Benjamin = 5.4%
Jonathan Taylor = 5.2%
D'Andre Swift= 1.4%
J.K Dobbins = -1%
Zack Moss = -2.9%
Now to look at the opposite end... Who played against the hardest run defenses?

# = % of games played vs top 25 defenses.

Jonathan Taylor = 50%
J.K Dobbins = 42.9 %
Cam Akers = 36.4%
CEH= 30.8%
Eno Benjamin = 27.3%
Ke'shawn Vaughn = 20%
Zack Moss = 18.2%
D'Andre Swift = 18.2%
Who did the best/worst vs top 25 defenses?

Elite:
J.K Dobbins

Good:
CEH

Decent:
D'Andre Swift
Zack Moss
Eno Benjamin
Jonathan Taylor

Real bad:
Ke'shawn Vaughn
Cam Akers

See below for explanations for each...
You expect RBs to do worse VS top run defenses - it just is what it is, but it is important to look to see just HOW BAD they were.

If an RB plays 30% of their games vs top 25 defenses, you would hope that 30% (or close) of their total rushing yards also came in those same games.
JK Dobbins played 42.9% of his games vs top 25 run defenses, & gained 52.4% of his total rushing yards vs those 25 run defenses.

That is FANTASTIC.

Difference between games played against top 25 defenses VS. production = +9.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire played 30.8% of his games vs top 25 run defenses and gained 32.4% of his total rushing yards vs to 25 run defenses.

That is very good, it is still a POSITIVE GAIN.

Difference between games played against top 25 defenses VS. production = +1.6%
D'Andre Swift played 18.2% of his games vs top 25 run defenses and gained 16.9% of his total rushing yards vs those top 25 run defenses.

That is respectable, it is a reasonable difference.

Difference between games played against top 25 defenses VS. production = -1.3%
Zack Moss played 18.2% of his games vs top 25 run defenses and gained 16.4% of his total rushing yards vs those top 25 run defenses.

That is respectable. It is a reasonable difference.

Difference between games played against top 25 defenses VS. production = -1.8%.
Eno Benjamin played 27.3% of his games vs top 25 run defenses and gained 25.2% of his total rushing yards vs those top 25 run defenses.

That is respectable; it is a reasonable difference.

Difference between games played against top-25 defenses VS. production = -2.1%
Jonathan Taylor played 50% of his games vs top 25 run defenses and gained 46.4% of his total rushing yards vs those top 25 run defenses.

That is respectable; it is a reasonable difference.

Difference between games played against top-25 defenses VS. production = -3.6%
Ke'shawn Vaughn played 20% of his games vs top 25 run defenses and gained 11.6% of his total rushing yards vs those top 25 run defenses.

That is not good... that is a BIG difference.

Difference between games played against top-25 defenses VS. production = -8.4%
Cam Akers played 36.4% of his games vs top 25 run defenses and gained 27.8% of his total rushing yards vs those top 25 run defenses.

That is not good, that is a BIG difference.

Difference between games played against top 25 defenses VS. production = -8.6%
Film is important.
Stats are important.
Team is important.
Defensive Matchups are important.

Look at the whole picture.

#NFL #NFLCombine
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