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/THREAD/Next up in my #2020PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Ian Happ, OF
Chicago #Cubs
25 years old
Drafted: 2015, Round 1; Pick 9
2019 Stat Line:
58 G
156 PA
140 AB
.264/.333/.564
11 HR
25 R
30 RBI
2 SB
.368 wOBA
127 wRC+
1.5 WAR
9.6 BB%
25.0 K%
(Also batted .242 w/ 16 HR & 9 SB in 359 AB in AAA)
58 G
156 PA
140 AB
.264/.333/.564
11 HR
25 R
30 RBI
2 SB
.368 wOBA
127 wRC+
1.5 WAR
9.6 BB%
25.0 K%
(Also batted .242 w/ 16 HR & 9 SB in 359 AB in AAA)
After being taken as the 9th overall pick in 2015, Happ debuted in 2017 & made an immediate impact.
He blasted 24 HR w/ an .842 OPS & 114 wRC+ in 413 PA.
This seemingly cemented him into an everyday role w/ the Cubs. And it did.
Until the following season.
He blasted 24 HR w/ an .842 OPS & 114 wRC+ in 413 PA.
This seemingly cemented him into an everyday role w/ the Cubs. And it did.
Until the following season.
In 2018 Happ began the season strong, registering an .832 OPS w/ 11 HR over his first 280 PA.
Then, as they say, things went to
2nd half: Hit .196 w/ an 80 wRC+ (reminder: that is 20% below league avg) while lowering his SLG% to .340.
But the worst thing? A 37% K rate
Then, as they say, things went to
2nd half: Hit .196 w/ an 80 wRC+ (reminder: that is 20% below league avg) while lowering his SLG% to .340.
But the worst thing? A 37% K rate
That 2nd half performance, combined w/ a poor Spring Training in 2019, forced CHC to demote Happ to the minors & work on his swing/approach.
One thing they wanted him to work on was being more aggressive. Seeing too many 2-strike counts was having a negative impact.
One thing they wanted him to work on was being more aggressive. Seeing too many 2-strike counts was having a negative impact.
Minor league hitting coordinator Chris Valaika wanted to implement an “A” swing & a “B” swing for Happ.
“A” swing would have more loft & was intended to elevate the ball early in the count.
“B” swing was flatter, but allow him to make consistent contact on 2-strike counts.
“A” swing would have more loft & was intended to elevate the ball early in the count.
“B” swing was flatter, but allow him to make consistent contact on 2-strike counts.
The idea was to cut down on his whiff rate & make more consistent contact.
Bjt even though results were not immediate, he was able to lower his K% by nearly 10%, all while maintaining his power stroke.
This forced the Cubs to test Happ’s new approach by promoting him in July.
Bjt even though results were not immediate, he was able to lower his K% by nearly 10%, all while maintaining his power stroke.
This forced the Cubs to test Happ’s new approach by promoting him in July.
There were some growing pains early, but Happ was able to heat up down the stretch:
July:
13 AB
.154/.421/.154
.310 wOBA
89 wRC+
Aug:
66 AB
.242/.296/.545
.344 wOBA
111 wRC+
Sept/Oct:
61 AB
.311/.348/.672
.410 wOBA
155 wRC+
July:
13 AB
.154/.421/.154
.310 wOBA
89 wRC+
Aug:
66 AB
.242/.296/.545
.344 wOBA
111 wRC+
Sept/Oct:
61 AB
.311/.348/.672
.410 wOBA
155 wRC+
Happ did far better down the stretch as you can see, but will these changes stick?
He cut his K rate to 25%, which is still not ideal, but a definite improvement.
It should be noted that as the summer went on, his K%
, even w/ more production.
Let’s take a closer look.
He cut his K rate to 25%, which is still not ideal, but a definite improvement.
It should be noted that as the summer went on, his K%
, even w/ more production.Let’s take a closer look.
2019 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 14.7%
Contact: 71.7%
Swing: 51.9%
O-Swing: 34.0%
Z-Swing: 75.3%
O-Contact: 54.1%
Z-Contact: 82.1%
These numbers, if taken by themselves, are not great.
In fact, all contact metrics are below league avg.
BUT they are an improvement.
SwStr: 14.7%
Contact: 71.7%
Swing: 51.9%
O-Swing: 34.0%
Z-Swing: 75.3%
O-Contact: 54.1%
Z-Contact: 82.1%
These numbers, if taken by themselves, are not great.
In fact, all contact metrics are below league avg.
BUT they are an improvement.
Happ was able to set new career bests in:
SwStr%
Contact%
Z-Contact%
O-Contact%
All while being more aggressive at the plate. In fact, he is now attack pitches in the zone 7% higher than league average, while raising his contact in the zone by 12%.
SwStr%
Contact%
Z-Contact%
O-Contact%
All while being more aggressive at the plate. In fact, he is now attack pitches in the zone 7% higher than league average, while raising his contact in the zone by 12%.
Happ struggled upon his promotion in July as he worked to implement his new swing & approach.
But he was able to make significant progress down the stretch, giving hope that these adjustments could be long lasting.
It would be great to see further discipline improvement though.
But he was able to make significant progress down the stretch, giving hope that these adjustments could be long lasting.
It would be great to see further discipline improvement though.
You may be asking yourself:
“I wonder if Happ was able to improve on 2-strike counts.”
No. Still awful.
But most hitters are in that situation.
However, he was able to take advantage of his aggressive approach early in the count & THAT is where he was able to do some damage.
“I wonder if Happ was able to improve on 2-strike counts.”
No. Still awful.
But most hitters are in that situation.
However, he was able to take advantage of his aggressive approach early in the count & THAT is where he was able to do some damage.
2019 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 15.8%
GB - 42.6%
FB - 41.6%
Pull - 35.3%
Middle - 37.3%
Opp - 27.5%
Hard - 34.3%
Med - 50.0%
Soft - 15.7%
Exit Velocity - 89.3 mph
Barrel % - 13.7
Launch Angle - 15.5
LD - 15.8%
GB - 42.6%
FB - 41.6%
Pull - 35.3%
Middle - 37.3%
Opp - 27.5%
Hard - 34.3%
Med - 50.0%
Soft - 15.7%
Exit Velocity - 89.3 mph
Barrel % - 13.7
Launch Angle - 15.5
Happ carried a top-30 Barrels PPA after already being in the top-10% of the league in 2017 & 2018.
So it’s good to see “flattening his swing” did not have an adverse effect.
Tbh, I don’t see evidence of Happ flattening his swing at all. It’s entirely possible he scrapped that.
So it’s good to see “flattening his swing” did not have an adverse effect.
Tbh, I don’t see evidence of Happ flattening his swing at all. It’s entirely possible he scrapped that.
Seriously.
The aggressive early count approach was definitely working in his favor, & while it’s possible Happ used “Swing B” when behind in the count, it sure doesn’t show up in the numbers.
Modest changes to BB profile can be written off due to sample size.
The aggressive early count approach was definitely working in his favor, & while it’s possible Happ used “Swing B” when behind in the count, it sure doesn’t show up in the numbers.
Modest changes to BB profile can be written off due to sample size.
The fact remains that Happ produced 27 HR & 11 SB between AAA/MLB in 2019.
The fact that, just two years ago, he was able to produce a similar 30/10 line makes it all the more believable of what he can accomplish over 162.
Which brings me to the next point.
Let him play 162!
The fact that, just two years ago, he was able to produce a similar 30/10 line makes it all the more believable of what he can accomplish over 162.
Which brings me to the next point.
Let him play 162!
Under Joe Maddon, like many, Happ was not given the opportunity to player everyday.
Thus making it difficult for him to find a groove or truly grow as a hitter.
Sure, platooning works, for the team. Not the player. Most players struggle when not given consistent ABs.
Thus making it difficult for him to find a groove or truly grow as a hitter.
Sure, platooning works, for the team. Not the player. Most players struggle when not given consistent ABs.
The upside?
15.5 launch 
41.6% fly ball rate
22.6% HR/FB
If you give Ian Happ full-time at-bats he is going to hit 30-40 HRs w/ those metrics.
15.5 launch 41.6% fly ball rate 22.6% HR/FBIf you give Ian Happ full-time at-bats he is going to hit 30-40 HRs w/ those metrics.
Happ still struggles against LHP, but was able to add 30 points to his batting average against them in 2019.
wRC+ increased from 69 to 96
This is another reason why Happ needs the ABs. Practice makes perfect, & the switch-hitter needs to practice.
wRC+ increased from 69 to 96
This is another reason why Happ needs the ABs. Practice makes perfect, & the switch-hitter needs to practice.
So will those 2nd half results stick in 2020? Maybe.
Happ is a streaky hitter & you have to take the good times w/ the bad.
His 2019 was aided by a 1.719 OPS (328 wRC+) over his final 27 ABs.
But this also shows how lethal he can be at the same time.
Happ is a streaky hitter & you have to take the good times w/ the bad.
His 2019 was aided by a 1.719 OPS (328 wRC+) over his final 27 ABs.
But this also shows how lethal he can be at the same time.
The important thing to remember is that Happ is a very talented player who made improvements across the board after making a tangible change.
He intentionally identified a weakness, worked it out in the minors, & brought the results to the majors.
He intentionally identified a weakness, worked it out in the minors, & brought the results to the majors.
Bottom Line: Happ is only 25-years-old & has proven that he has the ability to make some noise at the MLB level.
The beauty part is that he is absolutely free in all fantasy drafts, currently being taken as the 85th OF (314.40) in NFBC DC leagues.
The beauty part is that he is absolutely free in all fantasy drafts, currently being taken as the 85th OF (314.40) in NFBC DC leagues.
What to expect from Ian Happ in 2020:
450 AB (yep)
.249
25 HR
65 R
70 RBI
8 SB
He is going to play (Almora is awful)
I also expect his batting avg to be higher than most given his xBA (.256) & BABIP regression (.286).
Happ makes a great investment w/ no risk.
450 AB (yep)
.249
25 HR
65 R
70 RBI
8 SB
He is going to play (Almora is awful)
I also expect his batting avg to be higher than most given his xBA (.256) & BABIP regression (.286).
Happ makes a great investment w/ no risk.
