Read on Twitter
Incredible.
Last week I called out a journalist who I thought was writing a piece that would be a disservice to public health.
Unfortunately, my concerns proved well-founded. Recode’s virus piece ignores WHO & CDC, gets the science wrong…and focuses on handshakes!
Thread:
Last week I called out a journalist who I thought was writing a piece that would be a disservice to public health.
Unfortunately, my concerns proved well-founded. Recode’s virus piece ignores WHO & CDC, gets the science wrong…and focuses on handshakes!
Thread:
As context:
- WHO has declared a global public health emergency
- Director of Mayo Clinic vaccine research: "basically at a pandemic now"
- CDC: virus may “take a foothold in the US”
- Fmr FDA commissioner: pandemic "likely"
That’s the grave reality of the current situation.
- WHO has declared a global public health emergency
- Director of Mayo Clinic vaccine research: "basically at a pandemic now"
- CDC: virus may “take a foothold in the US”
- Fmr FDA commissioner: pandemic "likely"
That’s the grave reality of the current situation.
But this isn't reflected in the article. Instead it has:
- clickbait lede
- wrong science
- author w/o domain expertise
- bad faith request for comment
- outrage at assuming bad faith
- article that proves assumption of bad faith right!
See for yourself: http://archive.is/EPGK6
- clickbait lede
- wrong science
- author w/o domain expertise
- bad faith request for comment
- outrage at assuming bad faith
- article that proves assumption of bad faith right!
See for yourself: http://archive.is/EPGK6
The article contains many statements that are false or omit so much context they mislead readers. Let's go claim by claim.
RECODE:
"cases...have been contained to those who have recently traveled to Wuhan and their direct family members"
FACT CHECK:
False, according to CDC/WHO
RECODE:
"cases...have been contained to those who have recently traveled to Wuhan and their direct family members"
FACT CHECK:
False, according to CDC/WHO
RECODE:
"chances are...low that you would come into contact at work or in a public setting"
CONTEXT:
- Confirmed transmission at conferences
- One person spread to N people
- Hundreds quarantined due to 1 attendee
- Major conference canceled
- Contagion means risk is increasing
"chances are...low that you would come into contact at work or in a public setting"
CONTEXT:
- Confirmed transmission at conferences
- One person spread to N people
- Hundreds quarantined due to 1 attendee
- Major conference canceled
- Contagion means risk is increasing
RECODE:
"reducing handshakes...not specifically [recommended] for coronavirus"
FACT CHECK:
False, according to CDC
"Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through...close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands"
![RECODE:"reducing handshakes...not specifically [recommended] for coronavirus"FACT CHECK:False, according to CDC"Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through...close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands"](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQxS6twX0AYkWMu.jpg "RECODE:\"reducing handshakes...not specifically [recommended] for coronavirus\"FACT CHECK:False, according to CDC\"Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through...close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands\"")
"reducing handshakes...not specifically [recommended] for coronavirus"
FACT CHECK:
False, according to CDC
"Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through...close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands"
RECODE:
fecal transmission "still unclear"
CONTEXT:
- Related SARS virus spread through feces at Amoy Gardens
- Infected 300+ people, 42 deaths
- #SARSCoV2 has been discovered in feces
- Patients have diarrhea
- Multiple scientists now implicate fecal transmission
fecal transmission "still unclear"
CONTEXT:
- Related SARS virus spread through feces at Amoy Gardens
- Infected 300+ people, 42 deaths
- #SARSCoV2 has been discovered in feces
- Patients have diarrhea
- Multiple scientists now implicate fecal transmission
RECODE:
Quotes non-med/biotech expert on "paranoid fear about disease"
CONTEXT:
"Zuckerberg SF General is prepared with 50 isolation rooms that will keep patients from transmitting the virus to others."
"hospital staff plans to treat patients while wearing protective gear"
Quotes non-med/biotech expert on "paranoid fear about disease"
CONTEXT:
"Zuckerberg SF General is prepared with 50 isolation rooms that will keep patients from transmitting the virus to others."
"hospital staff plans to treat patients while wearing protective gear"
RECODE:
Implies Beijing has no outbreak, and that virus is distant and far away
FACT CHECK:
False, 370+ cases in Beijing according to JHU dashboard
Also, NPR reports Beijing is building another 1000-bed instant hospital to prepare for predicted uptick in coronavirus cases.
Implies Beijing has no outbreak, and that virus is distant and far away
FACT CHECK:
False, 370+ cases in Beijing according to JHU dashboard
Also, NPR reports Beijing is building another 1000-bed instant hospital to prepare for predicted uptick in coronavirus cases.
RECODE:
Implies it's paranoid to cancel Lunar New Year to prevent contagion
CONTEXT:
Wuhan: wanted to cancel events
New York: canceled events
Miami: canceled events
If Wuhan, NYC, Miami all wanted to cancel events…shouldn’t SF have done so out of abundance of caution?
Implies it's paranoid to cancel Lunar New Year to prevent contagion
CONTEXT:
Wuhan: wanted to cancel events
New York: canceled events
Miami: canceled events
If Wuhan, NYC, Miami all wanted to cancel events…shouldn’t SF have done so out of abundance of caution?
RECODE:
Quotes SF officials assuring people of "no public health risk" without challenging them
CONTEXT:
- SF strewn with feces, urine, syringes
- NPR: SF like "dirtiest slums in the world"
- Berkeley prof: "once fecal matter dries it can become airborne releasing viruses"
Quotes SF officials assuring people of "no public health risk" without challenging them
CONTEXT:
- SF strewn with feces, urine, syringes
- NPR: SF like "dirtiest slums in the world"
- Berkeley prof: "once fecal matter dries it can become airborne releasing viruses"
RECODE:
Implies #covid2019 only "scary" to "public" because "new"
CONTEXT:
Omits
- NEJM, Lancet papers on sheer severity
- Caijing’s courageous reporting on severity
- Math of tail risk for a pandemic
- Fact that many qualified PhDs/MDs, both in SV & outside, have voiced concern
Implies #covid2019 only "scary" to "public" because "new"
CONTEXT:
Omits
- NEJM, Lancet papers on sheer severity
- Caijing’s courageous reporting on severity
- Math of tail risk for a pandemic
- Fact that many qualified PhDs/MDs, both in SV & outside, have voiced concern
RECODE:
Implies flu is a "greater threat"
CONTEXT:
Omits
- Columbia's Ian Lipkin: "I reject that soundly"
- 100X increase in Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]
- 100X increase in *non*-Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]
- Again, pandemic threat is based on math of tail risk
![RECODE:Implies flu is a "greater threat"CONTEXT:Omits- Columbia's Ian Lipkin: "I reject that soundly"- 100X increase in Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]- 100X increase in *non*-Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]- Again, pandemic threat is based on math of tail risk](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQxS9EuWkAA2EXi.jpg "RECODE:Implies flu is a \"greater threat\"CONTEXT:Omits- Columbia's Ian Lipkin: \"I reject that soundly\"- 100X increase in Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]- 100X increase in *non*-Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]- Again, pandemic threat is based on math of tail risk")
Implies flu is a "greater threat"
CONTEXT:
Omits
- Columbia's Ian Lipkin: "I reject that soundly"
- 100X increase in Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]
- 100X increase in *non*-Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU]
- Again, pandemic threat is based on math of tail risk
RECODE:
Calls tech "terrified" and "paranoid"
CONTEXT:
Omits in-depth discussion of:
- Sheer scale of Chinese quarantine
- Hospitalization & fatality rates
- Contagiousness estimates
- 100X growth in non-China cases across 25+ countries
- Confirmed transmission at conferences
Calls tech "terrified" and "paranoid"
CONTEXT:
Omits in-depth discussion of:
- Sheer scale of Chinese quarantine
- Hospitalization & fatality rates
- Contagiousness estimates
- 100X growth in non-China cases across 25+ countries
- Confirmed transmission at conferences
RECODE:
Also does not discuss:
- tech the Chinese are using to fight virus
- hardware implications of supply chain disruption
- what biotech is doing: antivirals, vaccines, diagnostics
This obvious omission was *also* predicted in advance! https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1225862128168570887
Also does not discuss:
- tech the Chinese are using to fight virus
- hardware implications of supply chain disruption
- what biotech is doing: antivirals, vaccines, diagnostics
This obvious omission was *also* predicted in advance! https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1225862128168570887
It's 2000+ words. I could go on. But there's a point.
- I assumed bad faith, as I had context
- Not just on this piece, but on tech journalism in 2020
- Some lacked context & didn't understand why I called it out
But as you can see, it was indeed a piece about handshakes!
- I assumed bad faith, as I had context
- Not just on this piece, but on tech journalism in 2020
- Some lacked context & didn't understand why I called it out
But as you can see, it was indeed a piece about handshakes!
Why was I right? Contra one comment, I’m not a psychic. I just have a mental model that correctly predicts the actions of many tech journalists.
The sad truth is they are incentivized to produce clickbait. This is partly tech's fault too: social media created these incentives.
The sad truth is they are incentivized to produce clickbait. This is partly tech's fault too: social media created these incentives.
Again, this article is something of a rubicon for tech journalism, as it crosses the line into a hazard to public health.
More later, but for now:
- Take virus seriously, WHO/CDC are
- Don’t take unserious journalists seriously
- And avoid handshakes!
https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1227471118233219072
More later, but for now:
- Take virus seriously, WHO/CDC are
- Don’t take unserious journalists seriously
- And avoid handshakes!
https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1227471118233219072
CITATIONS
Twitter didn't have space to link these inline, but I compiled all the references in this thread into a Medium post.
Here it is! https://medium.com/@balajis/citations-for-the-recode-handshake-debunking-b2751adc7e69
Twitter didn't have space to link these inline, but I compiled all the references in this thread into a Medium post.
Here it is! https://medium.com/@balajis/citations-for-the-recode-handshake-debunking-b2751adc7e69
BACKGROUND
I'm not big on credentialism. Need multidisciplinary effort vs virus. But since some deem it relevant, my bio:
- Taught bioinformatics at Stanford
- Papers in clinical/microbial genomics
- MIT TR35
- Cofounder/CTO of biotech co sold for $375M https://www.technologyreview.com/lists/innovators-under-35/2013/entrepreneur/balaji-srinivasan/
I'm not big on credentialism. Need multidisciplinary effort vs virus. But since some deem it relevant, my bio:
- Taught bioinformatics at Stanford
- Papers in clinical/microbial genomics
- MIT TR35
- Cofounder/CTO of biotech co sold for $375M https://www.technologyreview.com/lists/innovators-under-35/2013/entrepreneur/balaji-srinivasan/
