Read on Twitter
So it seems that
* efforts at containment of covid-19 have failed
* it& #39;s out of China and will soon be everywhere
* r0 may be at the higher end of the range: ~ 5 +
* lethality may be much higher than we hoped
so : feces hitting the fan, medium hard
>>>
#preppertalk
* efforts at containment of covid-19 have failed
* it& #39;s out of China and will soon be everywhere
* r0 may be at the higher end of the range: ~ 5 +
* lethality may be much higher than we hoped
so : feces hitting the fan, medium hard
>>>
#preppertalk
2/
Not as in "ZOMG, end of the world", but as in maybe "ZOMG, maybe gonna hit Spanish Flu levels here in the west, and put a noticeable dent in the baby boomers".
So wife and I are discussing the trigger for if / when we "turtle up" and stop leaving the farm.
Not as in "ZOMG, end of the world", but as in maybe "ZOMG, maybe gonna hit Spanish Flu levels here in the west, and put a noticeable dent in the baby boomers".
So wife and I are discussing the trigger for if / when we "turtle up" and stop leaving the farm.
3/
I mean, maybe we don& #39;t - go about life as normal, have a 50+% chance of catching it, then just suffer fever and vomiting for 2 weeks. We& #39;re young-ish & healthy-ish.
But maybe we try to avoid that and hole up.
Trick is, given latency, you& #39;ve gotta hole up before it& #39;s obvious
I mean, maybe we don& #39;t - go about life as normal, have a 50+% chance of catching it, then just suffer fever and vomiting for 2 weeks. We& #39;re young-ish & healthy-ish.
But maybe we try to avoid that and hole up.
Trick is, given latency, you& #39;ve gotta hole up before it& #39;s obvious
4/
We& #39;ve already got food for a year or two, and savings that let us get by even if our remote gigs go sideways for a month or a year.
So really the only big question is "when to turtle up".
I& #39;m not sure.
It could be as early as 2-3 weeks from now.
Keeping an eye peeled.
We& #39;ve already got food for a year or two, and savings that let us get by even if our remote gigs go sideways for a month or a year.
So really the only big question is "when to turtle up".
I& #39;m not sure.
It could be as early as 2-3 weeks from now.
Keeping an eye peeled.
5/
If we turtled it would be with the goal of making it ~6 months or so, until a vaccine becomes available. https://twitter.com/vermindust/status/1228088913656344577">https://twitter.com/vermindus...
If we turtled it would be with the goal of making it ~6 months or so, until a vaccine becomes available. https://twitter.com/vermindust/status/1228088913656344577">https://twitter.com/vermindus...
6/
I& #39;ve been RTing a lot of it, but
let me dig up some details https://twitter.com/willow_liana/status/1228089146083880960">https://twitter.com/willow_li...
I& #39;ve been RTing a lot of it, but
let me dig up some details https://twitter.com/willow_liana/status/1228089146083880960">https://twitter.com/willow_li...
7/ https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1227812436327055360">https://twitter.com/V2019N/st...
8/ https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1227812437082005504">https://twitter.com/V2019N/st...
9/ https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1227812437807656961">https://twitter.com/V2019N/st...
10/ https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1227812438503878656">https://twitter.com/V2019N/st...
12/
same URL
same URL
13/
R0 (the number of people that each carrier spreads it to) is perhaps in 4.7 - 6.6 range, which is full on "here comes the pandemic" territory. https://twitter.com/LokiJulianus/status/1227694087412813824">https://twitter.com/LokiJulia...
R0 (the number of people that each carrier spreads it to) is perhaps in 4.7 - 6.6 range, which is full on "here comes the pandemic" territory. https://twitter.com/LokiJulianus/status/1227694087412813824">https://twitter.com/LokiJulia...
14/
in line with these
PolioFecal–oral route5–7
RubellaAirborne droplet5–7
MumpsAirborne droplet4–7
much much worse than SARS, HIV, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basi...
in line with these
PolioFecal–oral route5–7
RubellaAirborne droplet5–7
MumpsAirborne droplet4–7
much much worse than SARS, HIV, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basi...
15/
16/
I have very low confidence in my thoughts.
I ** KNOW ** that I don& #39;t know.
Basically I& #39;m looking for hedges in case stuff is bad, not PREDICTING that it is
But...my best guess?
* undeniable "outbreak" in US in < 6 weeks
* r0 of 4-5
* lethality 2% https://twitter.com/lumiferrous/status/1228097526168944640">https://twitter.com/lumiferro...
I have very low confidence in my thoughts.
I ** KNOW ** that I don& #39;t know.
Basically I& #39;m looking for hedges in case stuff is bad, not PREDICTING that it is
But...my best guess?
* undeniable "outbreak" in US in < 6 weeks
* r0 of 4-5
* lethality 2% https://twitter.com/lumiferrous/status/1228097526168944640">https://twitter.com/lumiferro...
17/
I think that with good air quality, low smoking rates, decent health level, good hospitals, rich country with good indoor heat, etc. that deaths will be very low except among the unhealthy / old.
I think that with good air quality, low smoking rates, decent health level, good hospitals, rich country with good indoor heat, etc. that deaths will be very low except among the unhealthy / old.
18/
I have.
If there& #39;s a PARTICULAR arxiv cite you want to reference, feel free. https://twitter.com/lumiferrous/status/1228098764889522181">https://twitter.com/lumiferro...
I have.
If there& #39;s a PARTICULAR arxiv cite you want to reference, feel free. https://twitter.com/lumiferrous/status/1228098764889522181">https://twitter.com/lumiferro...
19/
I& #39;m not EXCITED by it, dude.
I& #39;d far rather not have a pandemic.
And, and far as relevance, I& #39;m quite happy with my no-pandemic life of living on a farm, writing code, and writing novels.
https://twitter.com/PDGumshoe/status/1228130112589062144?s=19">https://twitter.com/PDGumshoe...
I& #39;m not EXCITED by it, dude.
I& #39;d far rather not have a pandemic.
And, and far as relevance, I& #39;m quite happy with my no-pandemic life of living on a farm, writing code, and writing novels.
https://twitter.com/PDGumshoe/status/1228130112589062144?s=19">https://twitter.com/PDGumshoe...
20/
Side thread on fragile systems https://twitter.com/tslaq9/status/1225919047566528512?s=19">https://twitter.com/tslaq9/st...
Side thread on fragile systems https://twitter.com/tslaq9/status/1225919047566528512?s=19">https://twitter.com/tslaq9/st...
21/
Viruses do not evolve towards harmlessness https://twitter.com/browserdotsys/status/1228164137735163905?s=19">https://twitter.com/browserdo...
Viruses do not evolve towards harmlessness https://twitter.com/browserdotsys/status/1228164137735163905?s=19">https://twitter.com/browserdo...
22/
update since yesterday:
update since yesterday:
23/
Note that we& #39;re compounding at 10% per day, day after day after day.
In finance there& #39;s something called "the rule of 72". To very quickly estimate how long something takes to double, divide the number 72 by the percentage increase.
72/10 =~ 7
Note that we& #39;re compounding at 10% per day, day after day after day.
In finance there& #39;s something called "the rule of 72". To very quickly estimate how long something takes to double, divide the number 72 by the percentage increase.
72/10 =~ 7
24/
So based on this data, we can expect total coronavirus cases to double every 1 week.
dcc 1000000000 64437 2 12 ^ * / p
12 weeks / 3 months from today we can expect 25% of the Chinese population to be infected, and ~6 million corpses
So based on this data, we can expect total coronavirus cases to double every 1 week.
dcc 1000000000 64437 2 12 ^ * / p
12 weeks / 3 months from today we can expect 25% of the Chinese population to be infected, and ~6 million corpses
25/
I& #39;m going to assume that US has a low rate of increase - 5% per day, not 10%.
That means our doubling time is 2 weeks, not 1 week.
12 weeks out we have 6 doublings
15 * 2^6 = ~750 cases
I& #39;m guessing that we see a vaccine in < 6 months.
I don& #39;t think US is hit too hard
I& #39;m going to assume that US has a low rate of increase - 5% per day, not 10%.
That means our doubling time is 2 weeks, not 1 week.
12 weeks out we have 6 doublings
15 * 2^6 = ~750 cases
I& #39;m guessing that we see a vaccine in < 6 months.
I don& #39;t think US is hit too hard
26/
China, though? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VRbaVNvSA&t=43m40s">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
China, though? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VRbaVNvSA&t=43m40s">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
27/ https://twitter.com/Bobthewelding1/status/1228328705547800582">https://twitter.com/Bobthewel...
29/
I& #39;m not BETTING on things going absolutely terrible, but reminder: the following is STILL ON THE TABLE
* 200 M dead in China
* 400 M dead in Africa
* 10 M dead in US
* 10 M dead in Europe
I& #39;d bet against this at, say, 20:1 or 30:1
...but it& #39;s within the bellcurve, I think
I& #39;m not BETTING on things going absolutely terrible, but reminder: the following is STILL ON THE TABLE
* 200 M dead in China
* 400 M dead in Africa
* 10 M dead in US
* 10 M dead in Europe
I& #39;d bet against this at, say, 20:1 or 30:1
...but it& #39;s within the bellcurve, I think
30/
RT @SaucercrabZero
I am re-upping my position: Treat this seriously. As of now the Normies are still un-spooked in the US, so there& #39;s no panic. Don& #39;t panic. Just do your basic-bitch prepping, food, water, medicine, toiletries.
RT @SaucercrabZero
I am re-upping my position: Treat this seriously. As of now the Normies are still un-spooked in the US, so there& #39;s no panic. Don& #39;t panic. Just do your basic-bitch prepping, food, water, medicine, toiletries.
31/
I& #39;ve seen assertions both ways.
No opinions yet. https://twitter.com/CornChowder76/status/1228330227656511489">https://twitter.com/CornChowd...
I& #39;ve seen assertions both ways.
No opinions yet. https://twitter.com/CornChowder76/status/1228330227656511489">https://twitter.com/CornChowd...
32/
US doubling every 7 days, vaccine 18 months out, means EVERYONE gets it. 2% death rate (my guess for US) = 6M US deaths
US doubling ever 14 days, vaccine 18 months out, means 3M people get it. 2% death rate = 60k deaths (i.e. 20 days worth of car accidents)
US doubling every 7 days, vaccine 18 months out, means EVERYONE gets it. 2% death rate (my guess for US) = 6M US deaths
US doubling ever 14 days, vaccine 18 months out, means 3M people get it. 2% death rate = 60k deaths (i.e. 20 days worth of car accidents)
33/
so, if r0 and death rate are fixed, then we hope for a slow rate of spread.
14 days doubling time means we barely notice it.
7 days doubling time means people you know die.
so, if r0 and death rate are fixed, then we hope for a slow rate of spread.
14 days doubling time means we barely notice it.
7 days doubling time means people you know die.
34/
Guys, the time to prep is now.
Once the normies start to panic, it gets harder.
https://twitter.com/TacticalMinivan/status/1228333751027060736">https://twitter.com/TacticalM...
Guys, the time to prep is now.
Once the normies start to panic, it gets harder.
https://twitter.com/TacticalMinivan/status/1228333751027060736">https://twitter.com/TacticalM...
35/
Prepping does not have to be either (a) expensive, (b) weird, (c) hard.
Go to http://walmart.com"> http://walmart.com , buy a bunch of rice, pasta, and peanut butter, and get free delivery.
Do you have $200 ? Of course you do. Everyone does.
Prepping does not have to be either (a) expensive, (b) weird, (c) hard.
Go to http://walmart.com"> http://walmart.com , buy a bunch of rice, pasta, and peanut butter, and get free delivery.
Do you have $200 ? Of course you do. Everyone does.
36/
8 lbs of spaghetti ~ $8 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Barilla-Blue-Box-Pasta-Penne-Spaghetti-Variety-Pack-16-oz-Pack-of-8/130874598
20">https://www.walmart.com/ip/Barill... lbs of rice - $12 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Long-Grain-Enriched-Rice-20-lb/10315883
4">https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-... lbs of peanut butter - $4 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Creamy-Peanut-Butter-64-oz/47375932
Free">https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-... delivery for > $100, IIRC.
Un 3 days its all on your front porch
you haul it down to a shelf in your basement.
8 lbs of spaghetti ~ $8 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Barilla-Blue-Box-Pasta-Penne-Spaghetti-Variety-Pack-16-oz-Pack-of-8/130874598
20">https://www.walmart.com/ip/Barill... lbs of rice - $12 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Long-Grain-Enriched-Rice-20-lb/10315883
4">https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-... lbs of peanut butter - $4 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Creamy-Peanut-Butter-64-oz/47375932
Free">https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-... delivery for > $100, IIRC.
Un 3 days its all on your front porch
you haul it down to a shelf in your basement.
37/
A guess, based on death rates in China (see sources earlier in this thread), death rates from US flu, adjusting for our superior cleanliness and medical system, etc. https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1228335864826224642">https://twitter.com/BonbonFor...
A guess, based on death rates in China (see sources earlier in this thread), death rates from US flu, adjusting for our superior cleanliness and medical system, etc. https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1228335864826224642">https://twitter.com/BonbonFor...
38/
Painful in the short term, but my ideology is not pure-Reason-dot-com-homo-economicus.
I think that US must retain global hegemony and also push back on outsourcing to PRC to help Americans (for purposes domestic harmony - give poors jobs). https://twitter.com/notPotus42/status/1228336324446445569">https://twitter.com/notPotus4...
Painful in the short term, but my ideology is not pure-Reason-dot-com-homo-economicus.
I think that US must retain global hegemony and also push back on outsourcing to PRC to help Americans (for purposes domestic harmony - give poors jobs). https://twitter.com/notPotus42/status/1228336324446445569">https://twitter.com/notPotus4...
39/
...and thus, while it would be far far better to not have a pandemic, there are some minor upsides to the economic dislocations (and resulting adaptations) that will result.
...and thus, while it would be far far better to not have a pandemic, there are some minor upsides to the economic dislocations (and resulting adaptations) that will result.
40/
Agree with @TheClarksTale !
I& #39;m not discussing all of this as "OMG, this is definitely going to happen". I& #39;m discussing what is PLAUSIBLE.
I& #39;ve discussed kitchen grease fires with wife, and purchased fire extinguishers.
I& #39;m not BETTING on a fire. https://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228337330831806464">https://twitter.com/TheClarks...
Agree with @TheClarksTale !
I& #39;m not discussing all of this as "OMG, this is definitely going to happen". I& #39;m discussing what is PLAUSIBLE.
I& #39;ve discussed kitchen grease fires with wife, and purchased fire extinguishers.
I& #39;m not BETTING on a fire. https://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228337330831806464">https://twitter.com/TheClarks...
41/
One way to think about odds is to look at events over past periods.
Depending on how you define the data set, we& #39;ve had one or two bad pandemics (Spanish Flue, HIV) in the last century https://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228339055340900353">https://twitter.com/TheClarks...
One way to think about odds is to look at events over past periods.
Depending on how you define the data set, we& #39;ve had one or two bad pandemics (Spanish Flue, HIV) in the last century https://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228339055340900353">https://twitter.com/TheClarks...
42/
so we& #39;ve got a base expectation of maybe 1 plague every 50 years
However...
#20th_century">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics #20th_century">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...
so we& #39;ve got a base expectation of maybe 1 plague every 50 years
However...
#20th_century">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics #20th_century">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...
43/
44/
Can& #39;t dive into this because I need to work, but the way I think about everything is
1) define the scenario
2) the make a list from that https://twitter.com/metadiogenes/status/1228340963376091136">https://twitter.com/metadioge...
Can& #39;t dive into this because I need to work, but the way I think about everything is
1) define the scenario
2) the make a list from that https://twitter.com/metadiogenes/status/1228340963376091136">https://twitter.com/metadioge...
45/
One scenario is "like 1918 - society is still running, but you PREFER to minimize trips to the supermarket, etc."
So stock up on staples you already like to eat - beans, pastas, frozen meats, etc. Find a spare closet in your apartment and fill it with a few walmart orders
One scenario is "like 1918 - society is still running, but you PREFER to minimize trips to the supermarket, etc."
So stock up on staples you already like to eat - beans, pastas, frozen meats, etc. Find a spare closet in your apartment and fill it with a few walmart orders
46/
"Go outside half or 1/4 as often" seems like a plausible plan for a city dweller.
"Go outside half or 1/4 as often" seems like a plausible plan for a city dweller.
47/
The first guy to prep gets to pick anything he wants.
The last 50% of the people who want to prep see this when they go shopping: https://twitter.com/Kenneth_St_Cyr/status/1228342520859496448">https://twitter.com/Kenneth_S...
The first guy to prep gets to pick anything he wants.
The last 50% of the people who want to prep see this when they go shopping: https://twitter.com/Kenneth_St_Cyr/status/1228342520859496448">https://twitter.com/Kenneth_S...
48/
it& #39;s already starting.
via @relicn0cer https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1226474163780583429">https://twitter.com/ISCResear...
it& #39;s already starting.
via @relicn0cer https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1226474163780583429">https://twitter.com/ISCResear...
49/ https://twitter.com/XiXiDu/status/1228349598160302080">https://twitter.com/XiXiDu/st...
50/
1.5% death rate in < 60
5.3% death rate > 60
divide by 2 or 5 or 10 or whatever for western countries because cleaner air, less smoking, better health care https://twitter.com/Fred_Watson_II/status/1228314798053613575">https://twitter.com/Fred_Wats...
1.5% death rate in < 60
5.3% death rate > 60
divide by 2 or 5 or 10 or whatever for western countries because cleaner air, less smoking, better health care https://twitter.com/Fred_Watson_II/status/1228314798053613575">https://twitter.com/Fred_Wats...
51/ https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1228335868202672129">https://twitter.com/MichaelCB...
52/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1228362910185000960">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
53/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1228362912403795973">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
54/
Also, time to re-read @slatestarcodex& #39;s "Thrive vs Survive" essay.
If the pandemic hits the US hard, I expect to see a strong turn away from SJW-ism and internationalism, and towards America-first nationalism. https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/04/a-thrivesurvive-theory-of-the-political-spectrum/">https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/0...
Also, time to re-read @slatestarcodex& #39;s "Thrive vs Survive" essay.
If the pandemic hits the US hard, I expect to see a strong turn away from SJW-ism and internationalism, and towards America-first nationalism. https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/04/a-thrivesurvive-theory-of-the-political-spectrum/">https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/0...
55/
Might as well read the not-great-but-solid John Ringo novel "Centurion".
> In the second decade of the twenty-first century the world is struck by ... a plague to dwarf all previous experiences.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤔" title="Thinking face" aria-label="Emoji: Thinking face"> https://www.amazon.com/Last-Centurion-John-Ringo/dp/1439132917">https://www.amazon.com/Last-Cent...
Might as well read the not-great-but-solid John Ringo novel "Centurion".
> In the second decade of the twenty-first century the world is struck by ... a plague to dwarf all previous experiences.
56/ https://twitter.com/daxidor/status/1228393487734689792">https://twitter.com/daxidor/s...
57/ https://twitter.com/daxidor/status/1228393888609525760">https://twitter.com/daxidor/s...
58/
prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread -->
(I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738">https://twitter.com/unorthodo...
prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread -->
(I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738">https://twitter.com/unorthodo...
59/
Pessimistic thoughts:
R0 could be 11
Mortality rate could be 10% https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/1...
Pessimistic thoughts:
R0 could be 11
Mortality rate could be 10% https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/1...
60/
Good blog post from @shylockh
https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html">https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/t...
Good blog post from @shylockh
https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html">https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/t...
61/
Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%.
http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/">https://avatorl.org/en/novel-...
Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%.
http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/">https://avatorl.org/en/novel-...
62/
My bet remains that
(a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China
(b) it will be around 2% in the west
My bet remains that
(a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China
(b) it will be around 2% in the west
63/ https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230484970168344576">https://twitter.com/BonbonFor...
64/
I had a question from @s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?".
I& #39;ve been pondering this a lot.
I don& #39;t have a good answer.
It depends on a few things:
I had a question from @s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?".
I& #39;ve been pondering this a lot.
I don& #39;t have a good answer.
It depends on a few things:
65/
* inevitability of contracting it (if we& #39;re all getting it eventually, why bother?)
* reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario)
* ability to shelter in place
* inevitability of contracting it (if we& #39;re all getting it eventually, why bother?)
* reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario)
* ability to shelter in place
66/
* alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law?
* ability to work remotely / live off of savings
* tolerance for f2f social isolation
* likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months
* alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law?
* ability to work remotely / live off of savings
* tolerance for f2f social isolation
* likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months
67/
Some of these parameters differ from person to person, and I don& #39;t know your dial settings.
Others are known unknowns.
There are unknown unknowns that - definitionally - I haven& #39;t even listed.
Some of these parameters differ from person to person, and I don& #39;t know your dial settings.
Others are known unknowns.
There are unknown unknowns that - definitionally - I haven& #39;t even listed.
68/
The one think I& #39;m relatively confident about is that choosing the time to bug out / turtle in is going to be very hard to nail down precisely, because it& #39;s going to be - in retrospect - about 2-3 weeks before you realize it& #39;s time.
REEEEEEE
The one think I& #39;m relatively confident about is that choosing the time to bug out / turtle in is going to be very hard to nail down precisely, because it& #39;s going to be - in retrospect - about 2-3 weeks before you realize it& #39;s time.
REEEEEEE
69/ https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230483325359443970">https://twitter.com/BonbonFor...
71/ https://twitter.com/Bobthewelding1/status/1230488333974896640">https://twitter.com/Bobthewel...
72/
On a tangent: I& #39;d love to be a fly on the wall inside Amazon boardroom.
I guarantee you that they see both threat and potential in this. As people shun human contact during the pandemic, they& #39;re well positioned. I& #39;ll bet big money that they& #39;re developing plans for >>>
On a tangent: I& #39;d love to be a fly on the wall inside Amazon boardroom.
I guarantee you that they see both threat and potential in this. As people shun human contact during the pandemic, they& #39;re well positioned. I& #39;ll bet big money that they& #39;re developing plans for >>>
73/
decontamination protocols inside their warehouses and for their delivery trucks, stockpiling respirators for delivery staff, etc etc etc
Giving strong consideration to buying Amazon stock right now, even at the insane P/E
decontamination protocols inside their warehouses and for their delivery trucks, stockpiling respirators for delivery staff, etc etc etc
Giving strong consideration to buying Amazon stock right now, even at the insane P/E
74/
DM from @gaitanalyst
The one thing I would kinda universalize: parents of small kids would be well advised to have a plan for getting their kids out of preschool. I’ve already called all my siblings about this.
Preschool or day care
>>>
DM from @gaitanalyst
The one thing I would kinda universalize: parents of small kids would be well advised to have a plan for getting their kids out of preschool. I’ve already called all my siblings about this.
Preschool or day care
>>>
75/
...Respiratory viruses are more lethal under 4 and wayyyyy more lethal under
<END RT>
...Respiratory viruses are more lethal under 4 and wayyyyy more lethal under
<END RT>
76/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230891002984046599">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
77/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230892647780356099">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
78/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230892649420410880">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
79/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230892650624098304">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
80/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230892651962126336">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
82/
I& #39;ve been saying this a lot. Right now, masks are hard to get, but bleach, ozone generating machines, pallets of peanut butter / pasta / canned sauces ... all of this stuff is available with free 2-day delivery from Walmart.
Tomorrow, though? https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230893418940895234">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
I& #39;ve been saying this a lot. Right now, masks are hard to get, but bleach, ozone generating machines, pallets of peanut butter / pasta / canned sauces ... all of this stuff is available with free 2-day delivery from Walmart.
Tomorrow, though? https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230893418940895234">https://twitter.com/Scholars_...
83/
COV19 panic is going to hit like bankruptcy: "slowly at first, and then all at once".
COV19 panic is going to hit like bankruptcy: "slowly at first, and then all at once".
84/
I saw a news article this morning along the lines of "CDC has declared Covid19 an XYZ, and bureaucratic rules say that that means that only FDA approved tests are official, and there are no FDA approved tests".
So ... measurement errors, I suspect. https://twitter.com/Face_Almighty44/status/1230918475322970114">https://twitter.com/Face_Almi...
I saw a news article this morning along the lines of "CDC has declared Covid19 an XYZ, and bureaucratic rules say that that means that only FDA approved tests are official, and there are no FDA approved tests".
So ... measurement errors, I suspect. https://twitter.com/Face_Almighty44/status/1230918475322970114">https://twitter.com/Face_Almi...
85/
this is fine https://twitter.com/hopeseekr/status/1230143497707061248">https://twitter.com/hopeseekr...
this is fine https://twitter.com/hopeseekr/status/1230143497707061248">https://twitter.com/hopeseekr...
86/
good side thread on how the markets are (or, rather, aren& #39;t) reacting to #Covid19
@jonst0kes doesn& #39;t quite come out and say it, but I think subtext is "this is real, the results will be real, and 99% of people are blind to it for historical reasons" https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1230911959937245192">https://twitter.com/jonst0kes...
good side thread on how the markets are (or, rather, aren& #39;t) reacting to #Covid19
@jonst0kes doesn& #39;t quite come out and say it, but I think subtext is "this is real, the results will be real, and 99% of people are blind to it for historical reasons" https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1230911959937245192">https://twitter.com/jonst0kes...
87/
9 days ago I said https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228342755258175493">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
9 days ago I said https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228342755258175493">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
88/
2 days ago I said https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1230893657282240513">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
2 days ago I said https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1230893657282240513">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
89/
Today panic buying is starting in Europe https://twitter.com/Royal_Creme/status/1231640096094531587">https://twitter.com/Royal_Cre...
Today panic buying is starting in Europe https://twitter.com/Royal_Creme/status/1231640096094531587">https://twitter.com/Royal_Cre...
90/
Frens, I repeat my earlier advice: drop $100 or $200 on staples from Walmart, with free 2-nd day delivery. Food, TP, tissues, basic household meds (cough drops, aspirin - all that stuff) https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228335571178790912">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
Frens, I repeat my earlier advice: drop $100 or $200 on staples from Walmart, with free 2-nd day delivery. Food, TP, tissues, basic household meds (cough drops, aspirin - all that stuff) https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228335571178790912">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
91/
NONE of this will go to waste. Worst case #covid19 is a big nothing burger, and you& #39;ve got a year& #39;s supply of spaghetti and peanut butter.
Heck, maybe #covid19 is a nothingburger but you happen to get a cold in 3 weeks and the stores are out of cough drops. Winning !
NONE of this will go to waste. Worst case #covid19 is a big nothing burger, and you& #39;ve got a year& #39;s supply of spaghetti and peanut butter.
Heck, maybe #covid19 is a nothingburger but you happen to get a cold in 3 weeks and the stores are out of cough drops. Winning !
92/
...and donations to charity are tax deductible ! https://twitter.com/JASutherlandBks/status/1231645610798964736">https://twitter.com/JASutherl...
...and donations to charity are tax deductible ! https://twitter.com/JASutherlandBks/status/1231645610798964736">https://twitter.com/JASutherl...
93/
I don& #39;t expect panic everywhere.
I don& #39;t expect panic most places yet.
But people do panic ; better safe than sorry. https://twitter.com/rwpeterson/status/1231646601740988422">https://twitter.com/rwpeterso...
I don& #39;t expect panic everywhere.
I don& #39;t expect panic most places yet.
But people do panic ; better safe than sorry. https://twitter.com/rwpeterson/status/1231646601740988422">https://twitter.com/rwpeterso...
94/
Two days ago I pulled half of my retirement fund out of S&P500 index funds and moved it into bonds because I predicted panic selling as the impact of #covid19 became clear.
Today: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/business/stock-market-coronavirus.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/2...
Two days ago I pulled half of my retirement fund out of S&P500 index funds and moved it into bonds because I predicted panic selling as the impact of #covid19 became clear.
Today: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/business/stock-market-coronavirus.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/2...
95/
Always trust Morlock Brand™ advice.
Always trust Morlock Brand™ advice.
96/
Over the last two weeks we& #39;ve purchased masks, bleach, hand sanitizer, topped up our food (~ 2 year supply), and moved money out of the market just before it crashed.
Getting very close to buttoning up the farm and staying in til it& #39;s done.
Is Saturday our last day out?
Over the last two weeks we& #39;ve purchased masks, bleach, hand sanitizer, topped up our food (~ 2 year supply), and moved money out of the market just before it crashed.
Getting very close to buttoning up the farm and staying in til it& #39;s done.
Is Saturday our last day out?
97/
It was about 4 weeks ago that I looked at the numbers and said "it& #39;s too late; the pandemic has started".
Glad that the smarter breed of normies have caught up, just a month late.
Sorry that the other 99% still haven& #39;t. https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228086074871865345">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
It was about 4 weeks ago that I looked at the numbers and said "it& #39;s too late; the pandemic has started".
Glad that the smarter breed of normies have caught up, just a month late.
Sorry that the other 99% still haven& #39;t. https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228086074871865345">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
98/
Always trust Morlock Brand™ advice.
#comment-180949">https://morlockpublishing.com/travis-j-i-corcoran/ #comment-180949">https://morlockpublishing.com/travis-j-...
Always trust Morlock Brand™ advice.
#comment-180949">https://morlockpublishing.com/travis-j-i-corcoran/ #comment-180949">https://morlockpublishing.com/travis-j-...
99/
A month ago I tweeted this https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228330023431655430">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
A month ago I tweeted this https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228330023431655430">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
100/
That was my extreme high limit, based on minimal data, and I bet against it at "20:1 or 30:1".
A month later, and we& #39;ve got better data.
Today the CDC estimate for American deaths is " As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/1...
That was my extreme high limit, based on minimal data, and I bet against it at "20:1 or 30:1".
A month later, and we& #39;ve got better data.
Today the CDC estimate for American deaths is " As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/1...
101/
So my extreme high-end estimate was ~ 6x the reasonable high end of the CDC estimate today, a month later.
Very very happy to have reality clock in better than I feared!
So my extreme high-end estimate was ~ 6x the reasonable high end of the CDC estimate today, a month later.
Very very happy to have reality clock in better than I feared!
102/
me, 4 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228334325919289344">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
me, 4 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228334325919289344">https://twitter.com/MorlockP/...
