Read on Twitter
Video purportedly showing Turkish-backed rebels firing a MANPADS that downed a Syrian Mi-17 helicopter in Idlib on Tuesday. An increased MANPADS threat will make it more difficult for the Syrian and Russian Air Force to conduct air strikes in the region.
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/28253
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/28253
So it looks like another Syrian Mi-8/17 helicopter was shot down by a MANPADS, presumably from Turkish forces or Turkish-backed rebels. Russia could still drop PGMs from Su-34 and stay out of MANPADS range but not Syrian aircraft or Russian helos.
https://t.me/warjournal/5170
https://t.me/warjournal/5170
An Anna News video showing three destroyed Turkish ACV-15 (reportedly transferred from Turkey to rebels) and several other vehicles during a failed attack near Kafr Halab. 3/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1333680
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1333680
What do you do when MANPADS make operating helicopters and dropping barrel bombs too dangerous? You bring in TOS-1A MLRS. 5/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=photo-123538639_457440595%2Falbum-123538639_00%2Frev
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=photo-123538639_457440595%2Falbum-123538639_00%2Frev
The Russian MoD posted a video taken from a Forpost UAV showing what they claimed were Turkish artillery striking SAA targets in support of a rebel offensive today in Idlib. Russia said that Turkish artillery fire ceased after Russia called them. 6/
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/2020220227-RlV3i.html
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/2020220227-RlV3i.html
Russia's Center for the Reconciliation of Opposing Sides said that Russia Su-24M attack aircraft destroyed a tank, 6 IFVs, and five techincals with large-caliber guns in Kminas-Nairab after a request from Syrian forces to prevent a rebel breakthrough. 7/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1339601
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1339601
Geolocation of the Turkish artillery position. 8/ https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1230502982308986881
A video also emerged that reportedly showed a MANPADS fired at one of the Russian Su-24M attack aircraft, though it missed. Vedomosti reports that Turkish-supplied Stinger MANPADS were used to down the 2 Syrian Mi-8/17 helos shot down this month. 10/
https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2020/02/20/823537-rossiya-vpervie-obvinila-turtsiyu
https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2020/02/20/823537-rossiya-vpervie-obvinila-turtsiyu
That Vedomosti source says that Russian aircraft will stay above 5k meters altitude to avoid the threat posed by MANPADS, and that Turkey has provided hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks, artillery pieces and MLRS to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham over the past few months. 11/
Reportedly video of the MANPADS launch yesterday directed at a Russian Air Force Su-24M attack aircraft over Idlib. It appears that a Turkish Kirpi MRAP is in the lower right corner at the beginning of the video. 12/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1341518
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1341518
More screenshots of that T-90A tank being used by rebels in Idlib. 13/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1340716
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1340716
Photo of Russian KAMAZ-6350-376 trucks with 152mm towed 2A65 Msta-B howitzers. 14/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343421
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343421
Video from yesterday showing two Russian Orlan-10 UAVs overhead as air strikes and artillery hit targets in the town of Al-Bara, Idlib. One of the strikes lands near two Turkish Kirpi MRAPs. 15/
Screenshots of what looks like an artillery strike near a pair of Turkish Kirpi MRAPs and other vehicles in Al-Bara, Idlib, from yesterday. 16/
Video from yesterday showing two Russian Orlan-10 UAVs overhead as air strikes and artillery hit targets in the town of Al-Bara, Idlib. 17/
Russian SOF, presumably SSO, near the front lines in Idlib. Looks like a sniper team with suppressed sniper rifles, likely Steyr SSG 08. 18/
https://t.me/Oleg_Blokhin/3153
https://t.me/Oleg_Blokhin/3153
Video of Russian and SAA forces inspecting an HTS bunker north of Aleppo. 20/
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/20202201730-UnnGd.html
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/20202201730-UnnGd.html
Screenshots of Russian Tigr and Rys vehicles entering the HTS bunker north of Aleppo. 21/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1346726
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1346726
Video of Syrian MiG-23 and Russian Su-34 aircraft popping plenty of flares over Idlib in response to the elevated MANPADS threat. 23/
https://t.me/milinfolive/58991
https://t.me/milinfolive/58991
A Russian Air Force Tu-214R reconnaissance aircraft was also reportedly spotted flying over Idlib yesterday. 24/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=photo-123538639_457443139%2Fwall-123538639_1346903
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=photo-123538639_457443139%2Fwall-123538639_1346903
A Turkish official told the Anadolu news agency that at least 29 Turkish soldiers were killed and another 36 wounded in an airstrike in Idlib. 25/ https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/29-turkish-soldiers-martyred-in-regime-airstrike-in-idlib-syria/1747513
The Turkish MoD released footage of strikes on BM-21 Grad MLRS, artillery, and other vehicles. Sources said that Turkey has destroyed 55 tanks, 3 helicopters, 18 armored vehicles, 29 howitzers, 21 vehicles, 4 Docka AA guns, six depots, and 7 mortars over the past 17 days. 27/
Another video of Turkish servicemen launching a Turkish-produced version of the Stinger MANPADS by Rokestan at a Russian Air Force Su-24M attack aircraft over Idlib last week. 28/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-123538639_456258245%2Fb961525b7246a8bd8d%2Fpl_wall_-123538639
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-123538639_456258245%2Fb961525b7246a8bd8d%2Fpl_wall_-123538639
Important to emphasize that on the same day that a Russian or Syrian (highly likely Russian) air strike killed at least 33 Turkish soldiers in Idlib, Turkish servicemen conducted another joint patrol with Russian forces in northeast Syria. 30/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1233067803982356482
More presumably UAV footage released by the Turkish MoD of recent air strikes on Syrian regime artillery, tanks, armored vehicles, and positions. 31/
https://t.me/warjournal/5367
https://t.me/warjournal/5367
More footage, presumably taken from UAVs, released by the Turkish MoD of recent air strikes on Syrian regime artillery, tanks, armored vehicles, and positions. 32/
https://t.me/warjournal/5367
https://t.me/warjournal/5367
More footage, presumably taken from UAVs, released by the Turkish defense ministry of recent air strikes on Syrian regime artillery, tanks, armored vehicles, and positions. 33/
https://t.me/warjournal/5367
https://t.me/warjournal/5367
Turkey has reportedly begun blocking Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and WhatsApp after yesterday's airstrike. This could be to prevent videos of Turkish military movements and reinforcements from being published on social media. 34/ https://www.gazeta.ru/tech/news/2020/02/28/n_14093209.shtml
The Russian MoD released a statement stating that the Turkish servicemen who came under fire were located in the formations of terrorist groups, and they were fired at by Syrian troops. It said Russian Air Force aircraft were not involved in the strike.35/ https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/7857747
The statement said that Russia has constantly asked Turkey for the coordinates of its forces in Idlib, and that Russia immediately coordinated a ceasefire after learning about the Turkish casualties and helped ensure their safe evacuation. 36/ https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/2020228838-ZMUnb.html
The Russian MoD statement also said, "according to the coordinates transferred by the Turkish side to the Russian Center for Reconciliation there weren't any Turkish military units in the area of Behun and should not have been any" 37/ https://www.interfax.ru/world/697022
The big question is whether Turkey's leadership will continue with the fantasy that it is only fighting against SAA forces in Idlib and not Russian forces too. Even if the airstrike was conducted by Syria, which is doubtful, the SAF is receiving targeting support from Russia. 38/
Russia has sent the BSF's Admiral Makarov and Grigorovich frigates equipped with Kalibr-NK missiles to the Mediterranean where they will join their sister ship, the Admiral Essen. So all 3 of the Russian Navy's Project 11356 frigates will be together. 39/ https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/7857965
Photos of the Black Sea Fleet's Admiral Makarov and Grigorovich frigates leaving Sevastopol on their way to join the VMF's Mediterranean Squadron. I believe this is the 1st time all 3 Project 11356 frigates will be together on an operation/exercise. 40/ https://twitter.com/Capt_Navy/status/1232953175818342400
The Admiral Grigorovich launched Kalibr missiles at targets in Syria in 2016. With the 3 Project 11356 frigates and the Stary Oskol and Krasnodar diesel submarines, Russia will have at least 5 Kalibr-equipped ships/subs off the coast of Syria (and likely some corvettes too). 41/
Russia's forces in Syria have been structured for a CT fight but less suited to fight a peer adversary. They've normally had dozens of helos; 4-12 Su-24, Su-25, and Su-34 each; and ~4 Su-30SM and Su-35S fighters. In addition to naval assets and 1 half-strength S-400 regiment. 42/
So the addition of two more Project 11356 frigates will augment Russia's air defenses in Syria, and provide more long-range PGMs, which would be less affected by future Turkish air defense reinforcements. They will also strengthen Russia's military deterrent in Syria. 43/
Something to note, Turkey's decision to introduce MANPADS to Idlib meant that most air strikes will have to be done by Russian Air Force aircraft, which possess better countermeasures and PGMs (which can be dropped with accuracy from higher altitudes than dumb bombs). 44/
The Syrian Air Force with helo barrel bombs and other dumb bombs can't operate effectively around MANPADS. This meant it became more likely that Russian aircraft would be used for air strikes to support the SAA, increasing the risk of Russia striking Turkish troops directly. 45/
More UAV footage of Turkish strikes on SAA forces, particularly SAA artillery systems. 46/
Another video from UAV footage of Turkish strikes on SAA targets, including tanks, armored vehicles, and infantry in the open. Pretty clear in this clip that the UAV taking the video did not drop the munitions on many of these targets. 47/
More UAV footage, reportedly showing air strikes last night in response to the air strike on Turkish forces (I'm not so sure it was all from yesterday). 48/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350981
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350981
More UAV footage reportedly showing air strikes on SAA forces in response to the air strike on Turkish forces yesterday. The sheer number of SAA tanks, artillery, vehicles, and fighters destroyed/killed in these videos (over the past 17 days) is crazy. 49/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350981
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350981
If true that means Syria lost another Panstir-S system (Israel has destroyed at least 3 I believe) and a Buk-M1-2 medium-range air defense system. Regardless, it is pretty clear that the Turkish response over the past two weeks has been substantial. 50/ https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1233313897207205888
UAV footage of Turkish forces destroying an SAA tank. 51/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-123538639_456258272%2Ff6007cc89f02a83f43%2Fpl_wall_-123538639
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-123538639_456258272%2Ff6007cc89f02a83f43%2Fpl_wall_-123538639
Photos of the Black Sea Fleet's Admiral Makarov and Admiral Grigorovich Project 11356 frigates passing through the Bosporus on their way to the Mediterranean Sea. 52/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1351417
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1351417
It appears SAA forces in Idlib are also using a # of T-72B3 tanks transferred from Russia. Compared to earlier versions, the T-72B3 has better night vision capabilities with the Sosna-U sight with a thermal imager and can fire Svir/Refleks ATGMs. 54/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1351321
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1351321
Sergei Lavrov said that President Erdogan and Putin held a phone conversation today regarding the situation in Idlib. 55/ https://tass.ru/politika/7860281
Video of Russian Air Force Su-34 and Syrian MiG-23 aircraft striking targets in Idlib. 57/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1351905
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1351905
Video of a Turkish Anka-S UAV reportedly flying over Taftanaz in Idlib. 58/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-123538639_456258294%2Fb301e51c1c1622a3d3%2Fpl_wall_-123538639
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-123538639_456258294%2Fb301e51c1c1622a3d3%2Fpl_wall_-123538639
