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#Coronavirus
Thread on effect of corona virus on economy, social stability, jobs n stature of China. Also brief review of effect on world.
China is 60% urbanized. Major economy is concentrated in big cities n 100 km of coastline
Thread on effect of corona virus on economy, social stability, jobs n stature of China. Also brief review of effect on world.
China is 60% urbanized. Major economy is concentrated in big cities n 100 km of coastline
Due to threat of corona virus nearly all major cites r shutdown, quarantinedRail, road, air transport has come to a halt, so also industrial productionChina is worlds largest energy consumer from 2009. Decreased demand will lower fuel prices globally till normalcy returns
China is already facing biggest bad debts. Its banks r in unbearable stressSectors of Chinese economy affected due to shutdown: industry, tourism industry, merchant navy, transport, real estate, meat industry, fish products
All the above sectors r very huge in China, generating enormous revenues n employing croresAny business has certain fixed costs, be in normal or shutdown mode. Shutdown will hit there profit marginsTo cut losses they may not pay employees or do layoff
With no work businesses will fail to repay to banksLayoff will create unprecedented social unrest in China. There will be chaos, loot of food itemsToday is not 1989, Chinese police/army's patience will be tested handling own people
Fearing spread of virus in all animal China was already banned consumption n destruction of meatChina's food import bill is highest at $ 105 bn. They import 64% of required vegetablesShifting from non veg to veg will require huge import of vegetables
India has golden opportunity in attracting China bound tourist n huge agriculture marketChina already had biggest unsold home units. Couple of yrs ago they had 50 ghost cities. New cities built up for 1 milling people with all amenities, but empty
Widespread layoff, wage cuts, business in loss will make life hell for real estate sectorInflation high due to isolation of market n supply cut Every chance overstressed banks will collapse due to massive failure of repayment. Even after situation normalize liquidity
crunch will be there
China is the biggest trading country in world
Industrial supply chain will be very badly affected as companies nowdays doesn't maintain more than couple of day inventory
China is the biggest trading country in worldIndustrial supply chain will be very badly affected as companies nowdays doesn't maintain more than couple of day inventory
China's opaque manner of handling sensitive things affecting global economy will not be taken lightly by companies sourcing spares from themEvery chance global giants will see it at reliable source of supply chain than cheap but unreliable source. Will hurt China badly
Sectors in India badly hit n operating at reduced capacity due to dumping of cheap goods from China has good chance to utilize its full capacity to meet the shortfallCascading effect of all these things can push China into utter chaos
Great nations emerge stronger after setbacks. Precondition for it is, a nationalistic society n leader with integritySadly China lacks both, so I see a very rough road ahead for them. Only miracle save them
Some may say Chinese society is nationalist, no they r very selfishOne point miss. CPEC/BRI uses Chinese workforce. No country will allow Chinese workers till the situation normalizes n host countries r sure about it. Already unviable projects further hit
Weak nations bullied by China can come together, especially the west African countries where China steals fish of $ 15-20 bn annually. Same can be followed by othersWeakening of China will impact Pak n an important opposition party in India. There situation will worsen
With China trying to sort out its own mess, Pak can't expect any help from ChinaChina was Pak's last hopeTubelight leaders favourite item in speech was China economy, goneIndia should shrewdly make most of the situation n work things to our advantage
With 10% decrease in China's fuel consumption, fuel price decreases by 16% during last 15 daysChinese growth rate in first quarter projected to 2% less than earlier projectedAnnual growth rate projection reduced from 6% to 5.6%, hoping condition doesn't worsen further
Things moving in China as predicted earlier in thread https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/chinese-companies-say-they-can-t-afford-to-pay-workers-right-now
Coronavirus threat now serious in Iran, Japan, S Korea n ItalySchools/colleges/businesses shut down. Air services to these countries curtailedAll these countries have huge business/tourist visitors plus large no of immigrants from different countries working in tech secto
From now onwards it will be very difficult to monitor such floating population. Huge cost for any countryInternational tourism is nearly dead this yr10% of people work in tourism sectorWorld economy will be badly hit, exports hit, domestic consumption will drive nation
No colour n pichkari import this yr from China. China dumps 20% of our Holi requirementAs said earlier GOI should come with clear cut facility n encourage Indian business with SEZ like sops to fill the void created by destruction in Chinese supply chain.
China knew the economic cost of coronavirus, resultant reduction in its economic power n geopolitical effects.
Did China hide coronavirus in the initial stage so that it spreads worldwide n losses can be shared. Equal loss is very beneficial to China, it maintains status quo.
Did China hide coronavirus in the initial stage so that it spreads worldwide n losses can be shared. Equal loss is very beneficial to China, it maintains status quo.
Chinese threat to stop export of essential drugs/masks/equipment's to other countries if Huawei is banned.
Already said on 6th Feb world will take note of dependence on Chinese supply chain.
Henceforth no nation will trust China.
Already said on 6th Feb world will take note of dependence on Chinese supply chain.
Henceforth no nation will trust China.
Happening as predicted in Feb, 8 cr job loss. To absorb them China is encouraging street vendor economy.
Hope China doesn't close big shops n malls to sustain it.
3rd big U turn for China. Till Jan 20 China hate street vendors n would evict them. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3087770/china-turns-street-vendor-economy-help-manage-unemployment?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=article&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1591362178
Hope China doesn't close big shops n malls to sustain it.
3rd big U turn for China. Till Jan 20 China hate street vendors n would evict them. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3087770/china-turns-street-vendor-economy-help-manage-unemployment?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=article&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1591362178
First U turn was stoppage of killing sparrows 2 increase food grain production.
Second was population control officials begging parents to have second child. Same officials would put parents in jail n snatch second child.
This is one reason for #LAC standoff, diversion.
Second was population control officials begging parents to have second child. Same officials would put parents in jail n snatch second child.
This is one reason for #LAC standoff, diversion.
Chinese Premier says 90% of companies will go bankrupt. With banks on merge of collapse due to bad debt how will they manage. Millions jobless. B&RI work will stop, bringing back millions of Chinese back in China. Biggest flood on. China screwed. https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1277943217242148865?s=20
