Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

The Mainland China data from the last 5-6 prints:

1. Can be modeled essentially perfectly
2. Corresponds exactly to a change in the reported mortality rate starting on Jan. 27
3. That reported mortality rate has been lowered to seek 2.20% on a -0Day basis

Closer look at mortality rates calculated at -0, -3, -5, -7 Days.

Since the virus takes between 7-10 Days to kill people, achieving steady state in the -0 Day mortality rate is only possible if a dramatic reduction in mortality occurred.

Feb. 2 Mainland China #coronavirus:

17,205 Cases, 361 Deaths

Since the data being reported is essentially perfect, we predicted within 129 cases (0.75%) and 7 deaths (1.9%).
Thus, the Mortality Rate calculated on a -0 Day basis is being maintained within 1/10th of 1% from 2.10%
If I were a Chinese propagandist tasked with maintaining a narrative the data suggests was adopted 7 days ago, I'd post these #coronavirus results for Mainland China tonight:

Cases: 20,346 (+3,141)
Deaths: 427 (+66)

Hopefully I'm wrong.
This is a notable statement for the #coronavirus narrative coming from China, so adding it to this thread for reference
Did @evdefender crack the underlying #coronavirus reporting function?

Time will tell.
You no longer need to be dead to receive a complimentary cremation.

" at the moment "

Updated with today's Mainland China "data". Note that the R^2 for the last 4 data points from the mode... er, um actual contracted cases rounds to 1.0000.

Will post what tomorrow's numbers should be if they maintain narrative.

A finer point on what is happening:

China is a country of 1.4 Billion with 10s of Millions in lockdown in cities & entire regions. Schools are closed for months; work stoppages for weeks.

China posts #coronavirus #s daily for at least 31 provincial divisions in the Mainland.
The #coronavirus expansion is extremely complex with many moving parts... even including mandatory cremations.

Yet, I have been able to predict their reporting within an extremely narrow band since early in the outbreak expansion (around 4500 cases / 100 deaths).
Thread became disconnected and a few corrections were made, so I will re-attach today's #coronavirus numbers.

Apologies for the confusion for those following along.
If I were a Chinese propagandist tasked with maintaining a narrative the data suggests was adopted 8 days ago, I'd post these #coronavirus results for Mainland China tonight:

Cases: 24,029 (+3,589)
Deaths: 500 (+75)

Hopefully I'm wrong this time
Last 8 points fit a quadratic with an R^2 of ~0.9999.

Let's ignore a scenario where China would be over-reporting the #coronavirus numbers.

If the reports were indeed from a model and the actuals were higher... the game is to let the quadratic run until it outpaces the actuals.
The problem with taking this approach (obviously) in the early phase of an exponential system occurs if your corrective actions aren't effective enough to get you onto the other side of the model before you are found out.

Changes in trend become obvious & alarming.

Look closer at the Hubei Province (1 of 31) data. You can make out the subtle changes in the reporting model a little more clearly.

It should therefore be more difficult to predict. I will try anyway - Feb 4:

Cases: 16,064 (+2,542)
Deaths: 492 (+78)

Feb 4: Hubei Province

Cases: 16,678 (+3156) A spike in the model
Deaths: 479 (+65) A drop in "-0" day mortality rate

We should have therefore under-predicted the cases for the Mainland, data drops in 90min

A bit above trend (+24%) in new cases reported in Hubei shows an acceleration, which I think marks an adjustment in the model. This should mean we've under-predicted the Mainland cases.

Feb. 4 Mainland China #coronavirus:

24,324 Cases, 490 Deaths

Subtle shift in narrative today seems to be a lift in the cases reported with an attempt to seek 2.0% on the mortality rate calculated using day for day numbers.
Fortunately, my biggest miss yet (295 cases) proves I'm not running propaganda for China.

Unfortunately, reported cases in the mainland have accelerated a bit which increases numbers for the coming days.

Will post updated predictions for tomorrow.

Ahem... The narrative.

The logic driving the narrative behind #coronavirus reporting from Mainland China follows a simple grift.

First: prioritize headline #s, which to them is clearly the mortality rate calculated on a day/day ('-0 day') basis.

Nearly pinned for 8 days (+20,000 cases) seeking 2.0%
From the Feb. 4 data, Hubei (1/31 regions) had 69% of "confirmed" Mainland #coronavirus cases.

Yet, Hubei model adjusts more than the full Mainland: harder prediction. 🤔

I'd post these for Hubei tonight to maintain narrative:

Cases: 20,218 (+3540)
Deaths: 562 (+83)
Editor's Note:

I'm being optimistic for Feb 5 Hubei #coronavirus deaths. Application of yesterday's Hubei day/day mortality rate of 2.87% would lead to a prediction of 581 deaths (+102) vs. the 562 (+83) above.

I believe the goal of the narrative is to work this % down.
Tonight's Mainland #CoronaVirus numbers posted 11 hours before the release if I were in charge of maintaining the narrative and leaning on the optimistic side as stated previously.

Let's hope I'm high this time.

Cases: 28,678 (+4,354)
Deaths: 578 (+88)
I've reached propaganda saturation levels I didn't know were even achievable & this is but a narrow glimpse over the past 3 hrs.

Between $tsla & #coronavirus, I must now consider the possibility we are in a simulation meant to target me specifically.

Yet somehow... R^2 = 1.0000
We finally overshot the Hubei #CoronaVirus predictions by a bit:

Feb. 5 Hubei Province

Cases: 19,665 (+2987)
Deaths: 549 (+70)

This marks the narrative's first reported decrease in daily acceleration.
Feb. 5 Mainland China #CoronaVirus: A New Narrative!

Cases: 28,018 (+3694)
Deaths: 563 (+73)

The Good?:
Finally overshot a bit as it's the 1st time new cases less than previous day!

The Bad?:
It's all a goal seek on (-0Day) Mortality = 2.01%
A major observation here is the mortality rate calculated on a day/day or (-0 Day) basis, which is wound very tightly around 2.01% regardless of fit on # of cases.

It has also been very steady with a slight decline seeking 2.0% since the narrative change Jan 27.

Tomorrow is Important:

Today marks the 1st day in the last 10 where I can't simply explain the point by a pre-determined quadratic.

It is therefore their 1st attempt at introducing some variability into the model or a shift in the narrative to begin a rollover.

Welcome to the Feb. 6 2020 #CoronaVirus Narrative Watch.

Next few days are important and a little tricky as I believe the narrative needs to show a rollover after so much extreme intervention

Whatever the # of cases reported (actual or not), they should maintain the CFR at 2.0%
Today I've adjusted the curve fits back to Jan.27, which I believes marks a notable point in the data suggesting it's driven by an underlying model.

I'd post these for Hubei tonight to stay high of what may be the new narrative:

Cases: 23,108 (+3443)
Deaths: 631 (+82)
Feb 6 2020 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Similar to Hubei: I'm using a curve regressing to 0.9999 on the last 10 prints (Jan.27) while estimating that a narrative shift will make these high.

Cases: 32,180 (+4,162)
Deaths: 647 (+84)

Report in ~10.5 hrs.
Narrative Alert.
Midday Editor's Note:

This has been one of the highest volume propaganda days I've seen during #coronavirus and I'm having trouble finding anything to suggest the numbers behind the model are valid.

Leaving the numbers since we're predicting narrative and not actual anyway.
Many want to attribute the data to a limiting function such as #coronavirus test capability coming online.

True that this should be a non-zero contributor to the data set. It would also mean that 'confirmed' cases are saturated and would accelerate as capability came online.
The number of reported new cases daily to take a closer look at this. This is also why I've noted the next few days are pretty important.
Since we've got 10 well formed data points, I plotted mainland #coronavirus case levels predicted by various polynomials through Monday as an experiment (since it may not be an actual system). Today's expectation is really tight across the fits.
🚨 Narrative Alert.

If the 'actuals' are really above the 'reported' that seems to be modeled, catching up will be relatively apparent in the model now.
I vote we skip today's numbers...
I described yesterday as a turning point in #CoronaVirus narrative regardless of news.

Feb. 6 Hubei Province

Cases: 22,112 (+2447)
Deaths: 619 (+69)

This is 540 fewer cases than they posted yesterday and marks a definitive turn from trend.
Hubei Province better illustrated in the daily 'reported' 'confirmed' new #coronavirus cases.

A decisive enough deviation from tightly regressed trend that it'd be pretty cruel if it were to shoot up.

Also surprising that propaganda is opposite & they aren't chest beating.
Unless cases/deaths have increased outside of Hubei, we should have overpredicted the CCP numbers for the Mainland as well.

If this continues, then we would have marked a change in trend starting yesterday that the CCP will start using to declare "mission accomplished"
No commentary from them on Hubei yet, although there should be given the changes I've flagged above.
Feb. 6 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 31,161 (+3143)
Deaths: 636 (+74)

The rollover shown in the Hubei data carries over to Mainland China and confirms the change in narrative that I discussed yesterday.
A very minor lift in the CFR calculated on a 0day basis to 2.04%. Expect 2.0% mortality to continue to be the main headline along with a potential reversal in increase of new cases.

# of reported new #coronavirus cases 'confirmed' per day for Mainland China

Note the narrative change that began yesterday. CCP is under heavy financial pressure to restore things to order.

I'd watch the next few prints closely to see if we're simply on a new predictable trend
No spiking of the football yet, but brace yourself for 'mission accomplished'
Editor's Note:

I study fraud. I'm good at it. The latest build of the chart below isn't some run away quadratic or doomsday exponential for #coronavirus intended to stoke fear.

I simply unpack data to see if points are more likely to be real or engineered.
China's actions really don't square with the numbers shown below. I haven't been trying to predict the entire data set, which may be logistic, or forecast months away

A change occurred Jan.27 to Feb.4 in which the points fit a very tight quadratic predictable in a narrow band
You're free to believe whatever you want. I re-engineer narratives. Based on the reported data, a trend change occurred yesterday and we'll study the logistic aspect.

Based on the news reports? Well, it's hard to square it.

Glimpse at the new #CoronaVirus narrative coming from the CCP regarding control measure effectiveness I told you was coming when the Feb 5 data dropped.
Feb. 7 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 24,297 (+2185)
Deaths: 680 (+61)

Hard to imagine seeing a reversal in the new narrative, so I'd post results similar to these tonight for Hubei.
Feb. 7 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 34,022 (+2861)
Deaths: 696 (+59)

Similarly, am expecting to see them report more confirmation on the new Mainland trend. This is pretty vital to get things back to normal after the extreme containment measures.
As usual, I'd keep an eye on the mortality rate being reported, which has been a very consistent part of the #coronavirus narrative since the Jan 27/28 reporting.
As long as you aren't chained in your home, you are free to believe whatever you want.

By necessity, there must be a roll off. Should it be this well behaved? Are the magnitudes of the reported numbers correct?

You'll find experts arguing both sides.
No commentary, I just find the timing interesting for reference.
Missed one. Will Feb. 7 be "CV Day"
In this dumb chart I try to illustrate the number of 'confirmed' #coronavirus cases vs. the estimated number of people in lockdown.

It's about 0.00779%

" No Inflection Point in Sight "
CCP hedge: 3 hrs and 25 min apart
Uh... No it didn't.

Meet my friend "Mild".

Mild allows you to spike the number of 'confirmed' cases while playing with the to date fixed mortality rate in order to help set the coming phase of the #coronavirus narrative.
Here is another dumb chart:

Current estimate for percentage of humans on all of planet Earth in lock down for #CoronaVirus?

6.44 %

<ps: buy stonks>

Feb. 7 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 24,953 (+2841)
Deaths: 699 (+80)

We had 10 prints of essentially perfect data for case expansion followed by two consistent days of slowdown, now a bit up.

I've been noting the split narrative today.
If I had to guess, I'd bet the meeting to discuss the narrative occurs in this window.

Feb. 7 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 34,568 (+3407)
Deaths: 722 (+85)

The Bad:
Spike in cases/deaths from Feb. 6 means new narrative in question & I underpredicted.

The Good:
1st ripple adds variance, but that's bad also since it's up
Daily 'reported' new cases & mortality rates (-0 to -7 days) for the Mainland. Not suggesting 7 days, just not plotting further here.

You can see the ripple with yesterday's rise, but that didn't get in the way of the '-0' CFR of maintaining 2.1% +/- 0.1% for 12 days.
In my experience studying instances where >6% of the human species is in lock down to prevent the spread of a virus that has infected ~35,000...

It's important to keep it short. Regardless of the real numbers, we had hoped the reported trend yesterday would hold.

A look at that "Headline" fatality rate.

Not my best chart, but face it: most humans (save you) won't get it anyway.

Note the virus sought out 2% on the Jan 27/28 change I noted & never looked back. A critical 'headline' #coronavirus # that even comes with it's own red flag 🇨🇳
If you believe the #coronavirus numbers, the level of overreaction cannot be expressed in words.

Infected: 34,568
Population: 1,437,156,454

% Infected: 0.002405%


> 6%
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