1. The SNP’s case for separating Scotland from the UK now rests entirely on joining the European Union. The core demographic any future Scotland-Out campaign has to win over are Remain voting Unionists...

2. Convincing these voters that a separate Scotland will be prepared on day one to join the EU will be essential to winning them over. The problem with this is that meeting the EU membership criteria on day one of separation involves establishing a new Scottish currency.

3. The EU will never allow Scotland to join without its own currency. Besides being an incredibly unpopular idea (6% support in Progress Scotland’s 2019 poll), there is no money to finance the £50-£60 billion needed in reserves to support a 1:1 currency peg with the rUK.

4. Therefore, a free-floating Scottish currency is the only option if Scotland wants to join the EU quickly. It’s highly likely the currency will devalue vs Sterling due to: Balance of payments deficit, trade deficit with rUK, capital flight, lack of Scotgov creditworthiness.

5. The new currency could easily devalue by 15%-20%. This would happen while all existing debt contracts – all mortgages, corporate debt, consumer debt, insurance contracts - stay denominated in Sterling while holders of these contracts are paid in a devalued Scottish currency.

6. The SNP have also admitted in the Growth Commission Report that the Scottish government would not be in a position to convert any existing Sterling-based contracts to the new currency. It would probably be legally impossible for them to even try...

7.Scotland has:
- Over 700,000 residential mortgage holders (average mortgage size of £100,000);
- Average household debt including unsecured debt and mortgages of approx. £58,0000 (based on UK stats);
- 700,000 people at risk of or in problem debt (source: Step for Change)

8. Voters can look forward to increased mortgage payments and increased debt values. Any business that does most of its business in Scotland while holding Sterling debt will face a dreadful economic situation. Defaults and financial hardship await for many.

9. The economic cost of separation to each individual in Scotland is now a significant order of magnitude higher than the prospectus offered in 2014. No issue highlights the personal economic cost to each individual in Scotland of separating from the UK than this issue.

10. The challenge for the pro-UK campaign is to make EU membership synonymous with establishing a new Scottish currency and then target the aforementioned groups with clear information on the economic risks to them. This should be easy.

11. The final weeks of a second Scottish referendum would likely involve queues outside every bank in the country, a credit crunch as banks would have no idea what currency they will get paid back in and a moderate-sized financial panic.

12. The logic of the SNP’s Pro-EU separatist pitch mandates a free floating Scottish currency on day one of leaving the UK. This is a glaring weakness in their prospectus and is waiting to be exploited. Very few people tempted by separating from the UK have even considered this.