Been watching a version of @Jesse_Livermore's GTT strategy for 1-2 years.

Mine looks at full set of indicators from http://philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/ , adds UE trend ( http://philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/) & needs 2 (vs 1) signals to turn on timing.

For 1st time, timing is ON with >recession prob.

Meaning if the S&P 500 drops below the moving avg, the strategy would suggest selling US equities.

Currently we'd need to see another ~7% drop depending on what SMA you use.

So no need to sell yet, but

With friday's closing price + latest industrial production & personal income readings, the model now says sell your stocks!

Almost forgot about this thread I started what seems like 10 years ago.

Industrial production actually turned back slightly positive in March. But after employment figures released today, we again have two recession indicators triggered & are below trend.

So it's saying SELL!