Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27

@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
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Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-7a92-4135-b4be-d7704fb959aa

However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27

Reflecting the overall regional movements; the West and South maps help up well. In 2016, Clinton easily won #NM01 and #NM03. The 20% Native American purple #NM02 weakened slightly, but stayed blue, and @RepTorresSmall would likely lock it down. 4/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/da6b4423-f4c5-4279-8fd3-97b732bf1c41

NV would have 2 safe D seats. #NV04 is competitive, and probably politically overlaps the real #NV03. It weakened a couple of points, but uniting Carson City and certain Las Vegas burbs kept it blue, unlike @RepSusieLee’s current district. 5/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/2dc13864-3353-4f1e-8946-c5dbb9cc3a13

This CO map uses two R vote sinks: the rural East-West #CO04, and ‘Millennium Falcon’ #CO06. 4 of 5 Dem seats would have stayed safely blue. #CO03’s margin shrunk, but would likely been safe for @RepDMB (assuming Rep John Salazar had not regained it). 6/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/3217bb1f-da25-435c-8299-121e367daca1

Funny thing about this TX map is that there was not a uniform swing. Instead, seats tended to move in directions that reinforced their original lean. The only competitive seat, the Waco-Austin #TX31, solidified into a stronger D seat by 2016. 7/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/759b9c25-9af7-4a68-a40c-0955add40030

One of my most aesthetically pleasing; WA worked as intended. While the northeast Spokane #WA05 slid out of reach; #WA03 remained a swing district – and the swap of Lewis and Klickitat counties for Yakima would likely have let @ElectLong win in 2018. 8/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/c0d9c63d-fc21-4862-9cb1-8c994b59d12f

Another favorite; almost-boringly effective. Trump outperformed *2008* only in safe-R Appalachian #VA06 #VA09. Given the asymmetry of unilateral disarmament; I wouldn’t blame #VAPolitics Dems for gerrymandering while waiting for a national solution. 9/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/a735f4d8-0e0d-4e05-b5ba-98ad6048ea98

A third one of which I am proud. It also showed me how terrifyingly well GA’s polarization and population distribution lends itself to gerrymandering. All the blue districts turned bluer by 2016, solidifying the two most vulnerable – #GA02 and #GA12. 10/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/4bd50c27-3289-48b4-8a7e-15af89002120

TN shifted mostly expectedly. D vote increased in Nashville-Murfreesboro #TN05; and collapsed in the #TN03 ‘lobster.’ But the Memphis-districts diverged: northwest Memphis-Clarksville #TN08 went D+6 to D+2; southwest Memphis-Jackson #TN09 vice versa. 11/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/401f996b-68b7-4d84-a3f3-aafd40ae8aa8

Along with the previous and next maps; SC seems to require a gerrymander just to get a proportional congressional delegation. Inexplicably, #SC02, #SC05, and #SC06 varied more downballot for Senate 2016: 50.8%, 52.6%, and 46.8% respectively. 12/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/e8e89d1c-10fe-45f1-acee-454d47cda1f3

Obviously, some version of this was really the only good option for AR – something all political observers recognized even in 2010, despite @MikeRossUpdates’ optimism. The Delta-Little Rock #AR02 went from D+2 to D+6, as all the others got redder. 13/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/743d5215-45d7-4725-816c-c7cec9a9fc29

The Midwest and Northeast are even more intriguing.

IA is a good example, holding up as well as could be expected. #IA04 is an effective vote sink. This enabled #IA02 and #IA03 to stay Dem, though #IA01 cratered. 2 lean-D are better than 3-lean R. 14/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/6f0f9df8-3486-490e-8c2a-bbb58f98628c

My only indisputable dummymander failed to account for Obama’s neighbour-state bonus. Ironic, since that’s why I suspected splitting Dems across #IL12- #IL13 was a mistake. I overreached with the bloody #IN08 and Fort Wayne #IN03 turning blood red. 15/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7418947-a251-4cba-9570-677686efe1f0

Had I not tried to push it with #IN08 and #IN03, I could have used Terre Haute to shore up #IN01; Elkhart #IN02; and Muncie #IN06; pulling more of Indianapolis into #IN07. 16/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/553a3b1e-a445-46fd-a2f8-4d502fb8f683

I anticipated failure; but *this* ‘blue wall’ seemed to actually hold . Granted, it weakened: #OH05, Appalachian #OH06 (49.6% Obama!) sailed off the playing field. But D seats stayed blue (albeit Youngstown #OH16 if only for @TimRyan’s incumbency). 17/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/63c2f657-b08a-4495-b516-9afbec21c2aa

I think this succeeded. A single R vote sink ( #WI05) enabled 7 strong Obama seats. Clinton still won 4. Plus #WI06 stayed competitive. No way to have anticipated how badly northern Wisconsin could have used another R vote sink without hindsight bias. 18/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/d3f1cf40-629b-4d94-8f15-7969e5dc5b63

Oh, how deceptively complex a single line can be. I wanted to apply ME’s statewide Democratic advantage consistently across both districts. Simple, right? But #ME01 and #ME02 insist on diverging. They reopened a gap between them in 2016. 19/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/23bc0994-796a-4fe2-b88d-07bb04549a43

NJ lends itself to gerrymandering. With #NJ03 and #NJ05 as vote sinks, this map would have secured an equivalent result (8D-2R) to the current delegation, except much earlier (and more securely) than 2019. 20/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/40272825-4660-42e3-9ca6-49708c04e644

Another three of my favorites now. MI exceeded my expectations of how it fared. Just 2 R vote sinks allowed 12(!) D-leaning districts in 2008. Of which, 8 stayed D-leaning in 2016. The other 4 would have been competitive; even safe with D incumbents. 21/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/2c409f9d-edf6-441b-ade9-38aec6028c47

Contrast 2018’s 2D-for-2R flips on the real map with this durable Democratic advantage: 6 of 8 (including @collinpeterson’s #MN08!) gave Obama >57%. 5 would still be D-leaning in 2016; and the #MN08 didn’t crack 50% for Trump – much easier to defend. 22/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/4a30925d-c40e-460e-8195-a73143936f80

Dems’ biggest missed opportunity: 2 R vote sinks to turn the rest blue (albeit some competitive e.g. ‘microscope’ #NY17 'earmuff' #NY26). Fwiw, imo: @repdelgado= #NY23, @RepBrindisi= #NY19; @LTGovhochulNY= #NY26. Katko may still have won bluer #NY24. 23/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/44a1430f-4f78-439b-ad41-10c6f7d3a8be

The previous two have a theme of Dems failing to maximize their partisan advantages. Perhaps they are instinctually fairer / less willing to push the boundaries. And/or, as the next map suggests, maybe they push a counterproductive interpretation of the #VRA. 24/27

Fascinating House-primaries experiment: trade MD’s majority-minority districts for max partisan gain. And yet: more Ds would offer better policy; and dividing black pop by 2016 vote share shows 5 black-majority Dem primaries and 1 black-plurality. 25/27 https://davesredistricting.org/join/4466a699-07dc-4cad-88da-2f32077eabca

Now, to be clear, some of my maps could be tidied up. I also deliberately didn’t concern myself too strictly with state or federal laws (see: MD and the VRA).

Other people have produced interesting, illustrative maps that did – e.g. NC (and others): 26/27

However, the point remains: how powerful #gerrymandering is. It can amplify a D/R majorities’ edge. Or cement unfair majorities in competitive states – despite waves (10-14-18) and shifting political demographics (12-16).

We need @DonBeyer's #FairRepAct for #fairmaps. 27/27

Addendum: missed a couple of maps.

My 2012 FL map did pretty well. The closest, #FL04 (Jacksonville), solidified a 16-10 D delegation.

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I was worried that my 2012 OR map (particularly #OR04) would have buckled under 2016's demographic shifts. But it worked as intended.

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