THREAD: The person Shanghai is trusting to keep the city safe from the Wuhan #coronavirus raised a few eyebrows while speaking to media today. So who is he, and what did he say? 1/ http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005144/leading-expert-on-epidemic-outcomes%2C-psychological-intervention

His name is Zhang Wenhong, a leading infectious disease expert at the Fudan University-affiliated Huashan Hospital. He did his postdoc at Harvard’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and focuses on pathogenesis, specifically of viral hepatitis and tuberculosis. 2/

What did he say? 1st: that people shouldn’t freak out over the spike in confirmed infections. This doesn’t necessarily mean the virus is infecting more people, but rather that hospitals’ detection capabilities are improving, with #2019nCoV test kits now more readily available. 3/

2nd: that the novel coronavirus is extremely virulent — more than twice as easily transmitted as Ebola, and nearly on par with HIV. If left uncontrolled, the virus would spread “very fast,” Zhang said. *However* … 4/

… Zhang disagrees with some of the more “pessimistic” epidemic projections based on mathematical modeling because these don’t take “external factors” into account — such as citywide lockdowns, extended holidays, and emergency “grid management” in local communities. 5/

3rd: that it’s critical to contain the coronavirus outside of Hubei. If it mutates and can no longer be traced to Wuhan or people who’ve been there, then screening efforts have to go far beyond people with travel histories to Wuhan to encompass anyone who’s feeling feverish. 6/

4th: that “psychological intervention” is useful, if not essential, for preventing panic. By this Zhang means having psychiatrists and other support staff at hospitals to keep patients calm and make sure they have someone to talk to who can explain what’s going on. 7/

5th: that he has no qualms with sending Party members to the front lines of the epidemic, saying essentially: “Party members swore an oath to put the public welfare first. Now it’s time for them to step up.” (see viral video @cowboyInNY mentioned earlier) 8/

6th: that, the way he sees it, there are 3 possible outcomes to the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic. A win: It is brought under control within 2-3 months (an admittedly optimistic scenario). 9/

A hold: The epidemic is partially controlled, with continued infections but at a mild rate. Under this scenario, the duration would be 6 months to a year, similar to SARS. 10/

And finally, failure: The coronavirus evolves to become a recurring seasonal scourge — an outcome Zhang called “very dangerous.” 11/

Final quote: “What we want to do is erase the virus from the human realm, driving it back into nature, back to the wild, back into its cave. When can we manage to do that? It’s hard to tell. At present, we can only hear the clock ticking without knowing what time it is.” 12/end