Read on Twitter
Sobering report. Standard epidemiological protocol: Isolate virus; contact-tracing & testing of ppl; Quarantine infected #Coronavirus must be seen in terms of State Capacity & Public Health axis. Pointless along authoritarian-democratic axis when set of things done is similar. https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1220904376300163073
Global Cooperation between virologists, health workers thru WHO & China's & US CDC has been a shining example to humanity. Important to take a step back and remember that we are in a forever war w microbes. Many more of them than us... #coronavirus https://twitter.com/russpoldrack/status/1221527296835608577
Fantastic resource: interactive map of #coronavirus infections and deaths around the world. Data from CDCs/WHO.
Created by Center for Systems Science & Engineering, John Hopkins. Updated daily.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Created by Center for Systems Science & Engineering, John Hopkins. Updated daily.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Constraining transport to buy time for CDC is vital. Bar-yam/Taleb on Precautionary principal: It will be costly for ppl, China,
economy in the short run. But failing to do so will eventually cost everything. As w exponential stock of CO2 & climate action. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1221500132337819650
economy in the short run. But failing to do so will eventually cost everything. As w exponential stock of CO2 & climate action. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1221500132337819650
2 weeks after lockdown of cities, rate of new infections slow down. Emergency measures to control outbreak have worked. Whew! https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1225604411390676993
Rate of new infections slow down even further. Thank emergency measures to control outbreak. For the first time in weeks public health ppl are breathing again. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-briefing-to-the-executive-board-on-outbreak-of-2019-novel-coronavirus https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1226311759109201920
Containing coronavirus has been nothing short of a war-effort. Thread on extraordinary times, extraordinary measures. https://twitter.com/paulmozur/status/1228751784111271936
Xi's speech on CCP's war-effort to contain virus is a world-historical document. No aspect of technology, local-centre politics, economy, social control left unadressed. Even 5G makes an appearance! Each sentence a Rorschach test... http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-02/15/c_1125578886.htm
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xinhuanet.com%2Fpolitics%2F2020-02%2F15%2Fc_1125578886.htm
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xinhuanet.com%2Fpolitics%2F2020-02%2F15%2Fc_1125578886.htm
Quarantine has been epidemiological protocol since Renaissance Italy put contagious ships on 40 days of isolation. How to do it in a modern economy where risk of ppl preemptively fleeing lockdown orders is large? Thus spreading it further, faster. Secrecy? https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xinhuanet.com%2Fpolitics%2F2020-02%2F15%2Fc_1125578886.htm
Fascinating, brilliant essay on Coronavirus in the web of life. http://chuangcn.org/2020/02/social-contagion/
Its turtles all the way down.
Its politics all the way down ie what a system chooses or not chooses to prioritize. https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1234048363160592384
Its politics all the way down ie what a system chooses or not chooses to prioritize. https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1234048363160592384
"The first thing is, they said testing is free, treatment is free. Right now, there are huge barriers in the West. You can get tested, but then you might be negative & have to foot the bill. In China,they realized those were barriers to people seeking care" https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
Any country —large or small, poor or rich— can contain an epidemic if they prioritize it. Nigeria contained Ebola in 2014 within months thru contact-tracing. If a country can hunt ppl to the ends of the earth w GPS guided drones, it can contain an outbreak https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1234700060337766400
Singapore's quality of transparent information from Health Ministry is just excellent. "The cost of the scare is worse than the disease itself, so it [is] important for our leaders to be rational and communicate well” https://www.wuhanvirus.sg/ https://twitter.com/RyutaroUchiyama/status/1234616723615166465
That Diamond Princess "quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled". It had 3,711 people on board, 705 tested positive & just six deaths. ht @jeremyfaust https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
For those who thought quarantining Wuhan was just an authoritarian overreaction - Italy extends quarantine to entire country. It was always about public health and state capacity. China bought us time (the month of Feb) that was squandered outside Asia https://www.ft.com/content/21d94d40-6251-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68?shareType=nongift
Exponential growth on semi-logarithmic plot is a straight line. So these show China& SKorea success in slowing spread from what would have happened w/out public counter-measures. Else health systems overload in days & ppl die of other causes not just covid https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112
A dispatch from the front lines in Seattle - America's ground zero. Virologists working around the clock to diagnose cases & reveal routes of transmission. Public health ppl have been alarmed since COVID19 overwhelmed China in Jan and raced to buy time. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00676-3
The Demand for Inpatient & ICU Beds for #COVID19 in US - "Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on Jan 23, the # of seriously ill COVID-19 patients continued to rise,exceeding local hospitalization & ICU capacities for at least a month" ht @mlipsitch @ruoranepi https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42599304
Priority everywhere isnt only social distancing but increasing # of ICU beds & ventilators. Surge of hospitalized ppl sadly inevitable. Patients require ICU to survive but only so many ICU beds. Lifting those two constraints means less Emergency Triage https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1237852375181737984
Testing is severely bottlenecked in US. CDC Director Redfield isn't confident that US labs have an adequate stock of the RNA extraction kits used to extract genetic material from any virus in a patient’s sample. No RNA extraction, no PCR, no 1M tests/wk https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212
Its no longer normal time but timescale set by virus. In 'viral time' each day matters ie #FlattenTheCurve so medical systems don't overload. But 3 bottlenecks -- ICU beds,Ventilators,RNA extraction kits for PCR tests --remain. 
Beds easier, but latter 2 are global public good
Beds easier, but latter 2 are global public good
China isn't out of the woods, but it developed production capacity & expertise since January. In desperate straits, Italy asked China & got 10,000 pulmonary ventilators. G20 countries should organize ICU beds, ventilators & RNA exraction kits for testing. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/akwage/china-is-now-sending-doctors-masks-and-hazmat-suits-to-help-italy-with-its-coronavirus-outbreak
In a radically new 21stC crisis but a mid-20thC analogy —the Berlin airlift. Replace milk & gasoline from US to Berlin with ventilators & RNA extraction kits from China to Rest of the World. And airlifting physicians who operate ventilators.Thats the real blockage in 'viral time'
In 'viral time' where each day matters & hospitalizations surge everywhere its only a matter of days/weeks before there are Seattle Airlifts, Seoul Airlifts, London Airlifts. Almost no other solution to the physical problem of pandemic provisions. https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1237982834226106368
In viral time, delay is extraordinarily costly. It wasn't about narratives (flu or not! lockdowns! authoritarians!) or whether case-fatality-ratio was a single #. It was about 𝘥𝘺𝘯𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘴. Production could have ramped up in Jan & Feb. It still can. https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1238304906219528192
Finally Europe searches for ventilators as cases surge. Italy asked its only ventilator maker to 4X mo. production, deploying armed forces...Germany orders 10,000 ventilators from a domestic supplier. In US, Defense Production Act. https://www.ft.com/content/5a2ffc78-6550-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5 https://twitter.com/RepAndyLevin/status/1238627876339159040
Excellent presentation on learning from pandemic response. Practical recommendations to govt officials as they start to mobilize & requisition sites. Family transmission is common; centralized quarantine is critical. ht @XihongLin https://drive.google.com/file/d/14tGJF9tdv4osPhY1-fswLcSlWZJ9zx45/view https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239229665438568453
Acute necessity of building temporary hospitals ala Wuhan/Lombardy. With schools, gyms, hotels, airports shutting down many can be repurposed as centralized quarantine facilities. ht @XihongLin @HarvardBiostats https://drive.google.com/file/d/14tGJF9tdv4osPhY1-fswLcSlWZJ9zx45/view
Does anybody know whether this plane carrying critical supplies is landing on the West or East coast? Seattle perhaps but could be LA, Boston, NYC. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1239388330405449728
"Ma's donation comes as health workers across the U.S. continue to report difficulties getting ahold of the COVID-19 tests they need, and as many voice concerns about the availability of protective gear for front-line health care workers." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jack-ma-coronavirus-test-kits-chinese-billionaire-alibaba-shipping-masks-supplies-to-united-states-donating/
UK moves to Asian model:"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK &US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over" ht @MRC_Outbreak https://twitter.com/sandyddouglas/status/1239669814920196096 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Sadly more such events as shortage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in US. Healthcare workers in contact w cases & susceptible subjects need more protective suits, goggles, caps, masks & gloves. ht @XihongLin @HarvardBiostats http://hsph.me/27v https://twitter.com/zach_murdock/status/1239706839014653952
Hospitals are creatively adapting to shortages (until supplies come), limiting visitors & non-urgent patients towards tele-medicine. Moving clinicians to COVID treatment is tough. Dispatch from San Francisco
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1240377565837053953
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1240377565837053953
First plane of masks&tests from China arrive in US w little fanfare. In EU von der Leyen: “China hasn't forgotten that in Jan, when it was the centre of the virus outbreak, EU helped...Today we are the centre &we need PPE ourselves"
https://dailymemphian.com/article/11756/jack-ma-donation-corona-virus-test-kits-masks-memphis-airport-fedex https://www.ft.com/content/186a9260-693a-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
https://dailymemphian.com/article/11756/jack-ma-donation-corona-virus-test-kits-masks-memphis-airport-fedex https://www.ft.com/content/186a9260-693a-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
Different countries are developing the necessary rhetoric to accept critical supplies from China until domestic production is ramped up. Could come under strain as covid returns to Asia via imported cases from Europe & US hotspots. https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1240300837068582915
Key to interdependence in 'viral time' (1) no country can cope with sudden surge alone (2) no such thing as containment in 1 country. "According to official data, China IMPORTED 56 million respirators & masks in the 1st week after Jan lockdown of Wuhan" https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1239906783432454144
If you live or work in any college/university town, consider circulating this urgent practical message from Tufts university president in Boston. @yaneerbaryam @zeynep https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/18/opinion/higher-educations-role-fighting-covid-19/
How soon before the hi-organizational part of the American State — the Military — enters to fill dire hospital shortages? It remains the Industrial planning State within the State along w a massive logistics & supply chain reach. https://www.dla.mil/TroopSupport/Medical.aspx
https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1240825539818127360
https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1240825539818127360
A shortage of Swabs (glorified Q-tips) also limit US testing. An Italian MNC is manufacturing them at speed but Fedex cargo planes are disrupted. Enter: US military transport airlifts. Just as Ma's 
donation, all land in Memphis. https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-flew-coronavirus-test-swabs-to-us-from-italy-2020-3
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1240860134034685956
donation, all land in Memphis. https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-flew-coronavirus-test-swabs-to-us-from-italy-2020-3https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1240860134034685956
Places now aware of outbreaks that started weeks ago. "We believe that intl seeding events started to occur in mid-Jan. Thus we have a critical~10 wks from then to late-March to contain these nascent outbreaks before they become sizable"-Trevor Bedford,Feb https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-20?n=9
"No one wanted to say what has now become clear: Feb was our chance...We lost that entire month...we now live in a new era of work stoppages, overwhelmed hospitals, dead elders, & a wrecked economy" #viraltime seen thru virologists Chu & Bedford's eyes https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-are-sick-lost-february/608521/
"Lockdown+mitigation in Wuhan helped reducing R from 3.8 to 1.25 but not good enough. Centralized quarantine + universal screening further helped reduce R to 0.3" - @XihongLin @HarvardBiostats
slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1-rvZs0zsXF_0Tw8TNsBxKH4V1LQQXq7Az9kDfCgZDfE/edit#slide=id.p1
talk:
https://opmed.doximity.com/articles/what-we-must-learn-from-wuhan?_csrf_attempted=yes
slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1-rvZs0zsXF_0Tw8TNsBxKH4V1LQQXq7Az9kDfCgZDfE/edit#slide=id.p1
talk:
https://opmed.doximity.com/articles/what-we-must-learn-from-wuhan?_csrf_attempted=yes
It took almost three months (until March 6) to reach 100,000 cases of COVID-19 in the world. Another 11 days (March 17) to get to 200,000. Then just 4 days to get to 300,000 cases yesterday (March 21). #viraltime
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
We would have been much better prepared if everyone had read & acted on WHO's Feb 24th fact-finding report. Effective interventions, the ICU surge that comes for weeks after cases peak, healthcare workers attrition, PPE... https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1241705907073028097
In #viraltime, urgency of Testing Kits + Ventilators + PPE form a parallel medical "swap line" from E Asia to Rest of the World like Fed's $ ones. Airlifts too decide who lives & who dies; they too are contested geopolitically, nationally & subnationally https://twitter.com/davidrkadler/status/1242142138714017798
Recommendations from ethicists on how to handle life-and-death decisions in absence of sufficient equipment and supplies: "Fair Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in the Time of #Covid19". Scarcity has cascading effect on hospital services used by all.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2005114
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2005114
"China had an oversupply, so we bought 1255 FDA-approved ResMed, Philips & Medtronic ventilators on Friday night & airshipped them to LA."
#Viraltime medical airlifts from East Asia to US are inevitable, urgent yet politically flying under radar. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2020/03/24/elon-musk-ventilators-tesla-coronavirus-covid-19-spacex/2905980001/
#Viraltime medical airlifts from East Asia to US are inevitable, urgent yet politically flying under radar. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2020/03/24/elon-musk-ventilators-tesla-coronavirus-covid-19-spacex/2905980001/
Serological tests for antibodies to the virus (once ironed out) will change the labour market. Those people could become frontline healthcare workers, plasma donors, and essential functions without fearing reinfection. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-blood-test-antibodies
"US urging foreign countries to ramp up production of masks, ventilators, body bags, and seeking to buy any quantities they can spare"
America First meets #ViralTime and gets urgency of need to purchase critical supplies from those who make it @njtmulder https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/u-s-diplomats-urging-nations-ramp-ppe-production-seeking-buy-n1168421
America First meets #ViralTime and gets urgency of need to purchase critical supplies from those who make it @njtmulder https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/u-s-diplomats-urging-nations-ramp-ppe-production-seeking-buy-n1168421
US cables embassies yesterday to emphasize that it is facing “historic surge in patients seeking care... No country can fight COVID-19 alone”. Politics of Medical airlifts from E Asia to Rest of World as explosively geopolitical as Fed's dollar swaplines. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/u-s-diplomats-urging-nations-ramp-ppe-production-seeking-buy-n1168421
Microbes break Modernity's fiction of Nature vs Economy vs Society. They shape us; we shape them.
"The earth is a unity for influenza A virus in a manner not yet found for probably any other parasite" (Hope-Simpson,1979).
L: https://www.historicalclimatology.com/interviews/a-conversation-with-bruce-campbell
R: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/f-lft100118.php
"The earth is a unity for influenza A virus in a manner not yet found for probably any other parasite" (Hope-Simpson,1979).
L: https://www.historicalclimatology.com/interviews/a-conversation-with-bruce-campbell
R: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/f-lft100118.php
Excellent info on why & how masks are so effective. Needs to be a social norm change esp In hotspots with so many asymptomatic carriers. ht @linseymarr Virgina Tech researchers pull together essentials of viral airborne transmission. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P9tBF-1RE5vw5hZyGIZ89Fl8munmLEQS/view
Pandemic boomerang. China hectored countries in Feb when they were restricting flights but now does the same in March. Just one flight per week per country. With exploding cases in US & EU, expect Asian countries to begin slew of travel restrictions soon. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-to-suspend-entry-of-foreigners-with-visas-residence-permits-due-to-coronavirus
What accounts for Trump's U-turn from blaming China to praising China?
Only a guess: the urgency of airlifting provisions (ventilators+PPE+tests) as US hospitalizations surge & needs become desperate in #viraltime. https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1238162125811523586
Only a guess: the urgency of airlifting provisions (ventilators+PPE+tests) as US hospitalizations surge & needs become desperate in #viraltime. https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1238162125811523586
"War-economic production is often conceived of as a natl enterprise. But most war economies in the 20thC were deeply international in their supply lines. The medical mobilization against COVID-19 will have to be similarly global" ht @njtmulder #viraltime https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-war-economy-will-change-the-world/
Medical Airlifts now nonstop in #viraltime @njtmulder. A trickle turns into a flood. Irelands' "Aer Lingus to fly Airbus A330 planes to China 60 times to collect medical supplies" https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1242814082874572800
Away from the sound & fury of politics, medical & scientific workers do what homo sapiens do - learn from each others experience & adapt what works. There's little time to strut and fret. We don't make the time. The virus makes the time. #viraltime https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/24/covid-19-answers-doctors-turn-to-china/
"We find ourselves afraid and lost...caught off-guard by an unexpected, turbulent storm. We have realized that we are on the same boat, all of us fragile and disoriented ... all of us called to row together, each of us in need of comforting the other." https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2020-03/urbi-et-orbi-pope-coronavirus-prayer-blessing.html
George Gao, head of China's CDC, who incidentally specialises in lipid envelope viruses, recommends universal mask wearing. Interview is interesting for frank answers on mis-steps & corrections. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says
"A plane from Shanghai arrived at JFK Airport in New York Sunday morning carrying an extraordinary load: 12 million gloves, 130,000 N-95 masks, 1.7 million surgical masks, 50,000 gowns, 130,000 hand sanitizer units, and 36,000 thermometers." #viraltime https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-airlift-masks-medical-supplies-1d1913bf-744e-41cf-895c-d8934afa2c36.html
The flight is the dramatic start of what might end up being the largest government-led airlift of emergency medical supplies into the US. "We have essentially a flight a day, mostly from Asia" for the next few weeks. #viraltime. https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-airlift-masks-medical-supplies-1d1913bf-744e-41cf-895c-d8934afa2c36.html https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1238099532447133696
FEMA's 2nd "Air Bridge" flight delivers medical supplies from Shanghai to America's 2nd city- Chicago. The next 20 odd flights will be allocated to hospitals across US based on how quickly they run out of N-95 respirators, surgical masks, gloves and gowns. https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2020/03/31/photos-whole-america-response-covid-19
Russian Cargo Plane With Medical Supplies Lands in New York. The plane is carrying “60 tons of medical equipment, ventilators, masks & other protection gear.”
https://www.defenseone.com/politics/2020/04/russian-cargo-plane-medical-supplies-lands-new-york/164293/ https://twitter.com/MarcusReports/status/1245440918779506690
https://www.defenseone.com/politics/2020/04/russian-cargo-plane-medical-supplies-lands-new-york/164293/ https://twitter.com/MarcusReports/status/1245440918779506690
19thC Cholera from Calcutta, out to Bombay's port,then out to rest of the world on ships. Led to greatest public health intervention ever—Clean water piped into homes, shit piped out —& total redesign of cities.
States make Disease; Disease makes the State https://www.academia.edu/2436728/The_Unification_of_the_Globe_by_Disease_The_International_Sanitary_Conferences_on_Cholera_1851-1894
States make Disease; Disease makes the State https://www.academia.edu/2436728/The_Unification_of_the_Globe_by_Disease_The_International_Sanitary_Conferences_on_Cholera_1851-1894
National Academy of Sciences issues rapid expert consultation to White House on bioaerosol spread of Covid19. Concludes virus can spread via normal breathing & on various droplet surfaces. #masksforall https://www.nap.edu/read/25769/chapter/1
If you haven't been reading these daily dispatches from the frontlines of hospitals in New york, please do. Scintillating & deeply human. https://columbiasurgery.org/news/covid-19-update-dr-smith-4220
Remember that testing was delayed by shortage of specialty swabs made by a single Italian MNC? The US Air Force's Air Mobility Command has been busy. "Since March 16, C-17s have delivered three and a half million swabs on seven missions.. #viraltime https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2136285/air-force-to-make-9th-flight-to-deliver-testing-swabs/
To many in the collaborative scientific world, the incoherence of US's catastrophic public health response with its excellent biomedical labs is acute. Vaccine R&D could play as important a biopolitical role as Fed's financial geopolitics ht @adam_tooze
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/us-coronavirus-leading-world-america-first/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/us-coronavirus-leading-world-america-first/
Nice piece on global R&D of multiple vaccine in parallel. The amount of funding --- for what may amount to hundreds of millions of lives in 1-2 years -- sounds trivial when compared to Disney's 2019 revenue of $70B. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6486/14
Rapprochement?
US Ambassador - "No one country can fight this battle alone...our 2 countries will...find ways to jointly cooperate to combat this common enemy that threatens the lives of all of us" https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/ambassador-branstad-moving-forward-together/
China Amb: "Time for solidarity" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opinion/coronavirus-china-us.html
US Ambassador - "No one country can fight this battle alone...our 2 countries will...find ways to jointly cooperate to combat this common enemy that threatens the lives of all of us" https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/ambassador-branstad-moving-forward-together/
China Amb: "Time for solidarity" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opinion/coronavirus-china-us.html
Going back to Xi's Feb 3rd speech and what jumps out is its sense that 𝙖𝙡𝙡 could be lost. That all that is solid could melt into air. The most important thing that has lacked in the West, compared to East Asia, is fear. #viraltime https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1228806928991649793
Michael Pettis thread on the scenes in Beijing: "The social terror and widespread feelings of gloom and pessimism that were common a 5-6 weeks ago in China have evaporated, and will evaporate soon enough in in most other countries". https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1247151156821811204
People in Wuhan out in the streets after so long cooped inside; 76 days since the lockdown began on January 23. A non-viral ode to the city:
The Wuhan I Know — Laura Gao https://www.lauragao.com/wuhan
The Wuhan I Know — Laura Gao https://www.lauragao.com/wuhan
“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” These are some deep truths of science and especially now. Thanks @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1246765144266412035
Weeks after US' bilateral deal, Beijing airlift comes to Berlin. Merkel strikes deal with Xi for German airlift to secure medical supplies from China. #viraltime https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-countries-vie-for-coronavirus-supplies-germany-cuts-deal-with-china-11586372608
Must-read from @danwwang on life in China, both the hammer & the dance.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/life-after-covid-the-view-from-beijing.html
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/life-after-covid-the-view-from-beijing.html
Most of us have a general sense that the Columbian exchange was the most significant crossover event in history. Empire, ecology & economy were fused in ways scarcely believable. Follow (& contribute!) to @natterjee's #10plagues https://twitter.com/natterjee/status/1249614338941423617
Arundhati Roy reads from her haunting new essay ”The Pandemic is a Portal”.
We long for a return to 'Normality'. We try to stitch our future to our past...& refuse a chance to rethink the Doomsday machine we have built for ourselves
https://www.ft.com/content/10d8f5e8-74eb-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca
We long for a return to 'Normality'. We try to stitch our future to our past...& refuse a chance to rethink the Doomsday machine we have built for ourselves
https://www.ft.com/content/10d8f5e8-74eb-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca
China bought PPE/vents etc in Jan from everyone. It blocked exports; then ramped up production. US & European companies and charities sent it to them at hour of its greatest need. Both moral & self-interest to contain in 1 country. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/us-sent-millions-of-face-masks-to-china-early-this-year-ignoring-pandemic-warning-signs/2020/04/18/aaccf54a-7ff5-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1240656985567252480
The chaos of numbers obscures a simple fact: "Capitalist globalization now appears to be biologically unsustainable in the absence of a truly international public-health infrastructure".
ht Mike Davis (who has literally written the book on pandemics.) https://newleftreview.org/issues/II122/articles/mike-davis-in-a-plague-year
ht Mike Davis (who has literally written the book on pandemics.) https://newleftreview.org/issues/II122/articles/mike-davis-in-a-plague-year
The first flight carrying Medical supplies from Shanghai landed in NYC on March 29th.
Since then, SIXTY-EIGHT flights nonstop from Asia carrying more than 57 million N-95 masks & 11,000 ventilators have landed across US #viraltime
https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1587486963429-b69186b00049e85cc62d253d31905faa/4_16_21_ByTheNumbers.jpg.png
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1244300150253727744
Since then, SIXTY-EIGHT flights nonstop from Asia carrying more than 57 million N-95 masks & 11,000 ventilators have landed across US #viraltime
https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1587486963429-b69186b00049e85cc62d253d31905faa/4_16_21_ByTheNumbers.jpg.png
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1244300150253727744
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
Feb. 21: 0 deaths
Mar. 21: 323 deaths
Apr. 21: 45,042 deaths
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://twitter.com/glennwsmith/status/1252057980964610050
Feb. 21: 0 deaths
Mar. 21: 323 deaths
Apr. 21: 45,042 deaths
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://twitter.com/glennwsmith/status/1252057980964610050
"A purified inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus vaccine candidate confers complete protection in non-human primates [rhesus macaques] against SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating worldwide"- Sinovac
Fingers crossed for Clinical trials! https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04352608?term=sinovac+covid19&draw=2&rank=1 https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252939460129538048
Sinovac Fingers crossed for Clinical trials! https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04352608?term=sinovac+covid19&draw=2&rank=1 https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252939460129538048
US declared coronavirus a national emergency on Mar 14th. Since then
Mar. 14th: 14 deaths
Apr. 14: 25,000 deaths
Apr. 24: 50,000 deaths
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
Chilling graphic https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html
Mar. 14th: 14 deaths
Apr. 14: 25,000 deaths
Apr. 24: 50,000 deaths
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
Chilling graphic https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html
"Source said they are cargo flights carrying medical supplies.
5-6 flights each day from Beijing to New York
4 flights each day from Beijing to Los Angeles
These "China-US Express" flights are scheduled everyday at least in the next 3 days." #viraltime https://twitter.com/ChinaAvReview/status/1254055340368261120
5-6 flights each day from Beijing to New York
4 flights each day from Beijing to Los Angeles
These "China-US Express" flights are scheduled everyday at least in the next 3 days." #viraltime https://twitter.com/ChinaAvReview/status/1254055340368261120
Peaks & decline as happened in China or S Korea, didn't just happen. We have to actually do what they did. We can stop the virus. Thread. https://twitter.com/propublica/status/1253351877787467779
Almost at 58,220 covid US deaths. Weekly death tolls match yearly tolls during Vietnam war. Last week was 1968.
Meanwhile, from the first case in January, Hanoi has taken no chances. Vietnam has had ~300 cases and no deaths. Fig ht @bwbensonjr. @nickturse https://theintercept.com/2020/04/27/in-just-months-the-coronavirus-kills-more-americans-than-20-years-of-war-in-vietnam/
Meanwhile, from the first case in January, Hanoi has taken no chances. Vietnam has had ~300 cases and no deaths. Fig ht @bwbensonjr. @nickturse https://theintercept.com/2020/04/27/in-just-months-the-coronavirus-kills-more-americans-than-20-years-of-war-in-vietnam/
2020 US Elections will shift blame on China.
GOP issues talking points to politicians -"This is China's fault...Because China lied about the extent of the virus, our public health officials acted late".
Biden's ad: "Trump rolled over for the Chinese" https://www.newsweek.com/dont-defend-trump-attack-china-gop-memo-says-beijing-becomes-bludgeon-both-campaigns-1500270
GOP issues talking points to politicians -"This is China's fault...Because China lied about the extent of the virus, our public health officials acted late".
Biden's ad: "Trump rolled over for the Chinese" https://www.newsweek.com/dont-defend-trump-attack-china-gop-memo-says-beijing-becomes-bludgeon-both-campaigns-1500270
Trump's 'Wuhan virus' creates a primitive space. Its a civilization vs nature trope deployed to "exonerate liberal-capitalist civilization, & its imperatives of technical, & economic power, denying its share of complicity". https://ctjournal.org/2020/04/29/in-the-shadows-of-coronavirus/ https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1248618481479634946
LEGO propaganda is funnier than just plastering the word February over and over again. https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1255734356728922113
Plateau of 1000s of infections & deaths a day is not acceptable. Hunkering down & hoping for 'testing testing testing' is not a strategy. Eradication is the goal. To do that, cases must be found, isolated, and their contacts traced & isolated comfortably. https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/its-not-too-late-to-go-on-offense-against-the-coronavirus
The first flight carrying Medical supplies from Shanghai landed in NYC on 29th Mar. Since then, 117 flights nonstop, largely from Asia, have landed.
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/images/187907
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1244300150253727744
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/images/187907
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1244300150253727744
"Factors associated with COVID-19 hospital deaths from e-health records of 17 million adult NHS patients". Hazard ratios are adjusted for covariates, esp age & gender, so throw up surprises... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf
https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1258378643979620353
https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1258378643979620353
"You have a 30% chance of dying if you end up in a British hospital with COVID-19. That’s about the same overall mortality rate as for Ebola in 2014 in W Africa.
They got me, I've devoted my life to fighting viruses & finally, they get their revenge" https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19
They got me, I've devoted my life to fighting viruses & finally, they get their revenge" https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19
States that eradicated virus did it by community participation. Social democracy is about collectively solving new problems. "Taming a pandemic & rapidly building out a massive safety net is fundamentally about the relation of the state to its citizens" https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-virus-social-democracy-and-dividends-for-kerala/article31370554.ece
My go to for past few weeks has been @youyanggu's ML model. It's projections have been remarkably accurate for #COVID19 in 40 countries & US states. Brazil, India, Mexico, Canada & Russia are surging next couple months. https://covid19-projections.com/
S Korea doesn't do #FlattenTheCurve defeatism. Both State & society learnt from 2015's MERS outbreak to #StampItOut. This is what Test+Trace+Isolate alongside disease surveillance at border looks like to keep new cases down. Thread https://twitter.com/michaelvkim/status/1258987354934538248
https://twitter.com/michaelvkim/status/1258987354934538248
A stunning stat: More reported covid deaths in New York than ALL of Asia.
If you tell ppl in US/EU that "we have 1 of the worst responses of any country" most refuse to believe it. Idea of a Sri Lanka or Vietnam doing better doesn't fit. ht @Comparativist https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-region
If you tell ppl in US/EU that "we have 1 of the worst responses of any country" most refuse to believe it. Idea of a Sri Lanka or Vietnam doing better doesn't fit. ht @Comparativist https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-region
The UK had developed a test as early as 10 January. It was contact tracing in February. But what went wrong in pursuing the Test + Trace + Isolate strategy? Substantial inquiry by Lawrence Freedman (of Chilcot Report). https://www.iiss.org/-/media/iiss/home/publications/survival/2020/survival-global-politics-and-strategy-junejuly/survival---strategy-for-a-pandemic.pdf
One reason why UK&US didnt pursue #TestTraceIsolate was belief that effort reqd would be overrun i.e futile. It looked at E Asia w its 1000s of teams of epidemiologists, tracing 1000s of contacts a day, thorough isolation in hotels w follow-up, & balked. https://www.iiss.org/-/media/iiss/home/publications/survival/2020/survival-global-politics-and-strategy-junejuly/survival---strategy-for-a-pandemic.pdf
There is no shortcut to #TestTraceIsolate state capacity. UK/US switch in March from eradicating to mitigating virus was defeatist. Ppl won't go back to work without TTI. And when 2nd wave comes, the lockdown will be revealed insufficient. ht @devisridhar https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/12/tories-lockdown-social-distancing-testing-second-wave-coronavirus
In Hong Kong, it wasn't state capacity, but bottom-up civic mobilization w 2003 SARS burnt into collective memory, that contained Covid. "Hong Kong’s health authorities openly credited the near-universal mask wearing among the people for avoiding a surge" https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1260209574751199232
Even after terrible past 3 months, just 5% of France has been infected (~10% around Paris). 90-95% are still naive to the virus and therefore fuel for fires of 2nd wave. There is no herd immunity shortcut to #TestTraceIsolate public health infrastructure. https://twitter.com/hsalje/status/1260606369805320195
It shouldn't still be a surprise, but age & gender conditional probabilities of infection, hospitalization & death is so stark. In France, 3.6% of infected go to hospital. Young recover after illness (sometimes debilitating);10% of elderly die, men more so https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517
"On 20 January,KK Shailaja phoned one of her deputies. She had read online about a dangerous new virus spreading in China.“Will it come to us?” she asked. “Definitely, Madam”. And so the health minister of the Indian state of Kerala began her preparations" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/the-coronavirus-slayer-how-keralas-rock-star-health-minister-helped-save-it-from-covid-19
Delay is extremely costly in an exponential outbreak. @Yaneerbaryam @normonics @nntaleb urged social distancing & travel restrictions on January 26th. Anything you do early sounds alarmist; anything late, horribly insufficient. https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1261075742021963777
"If you read the western press, truly successful countries like Vietnam, South Korea, & Taiwan are only held up as oriental curiosities, never as just human nations that could be learned from. They might as well be on Mars" ht Indi Samarajiva https://medium.com/@indica/germany-is-a-coronavirus-failure-7e2a58f5b4fe
The country has decided its open again. The virus has decided it has prey again. Good time to revisit classic Predator-Prey model ht @kjhealy @Kumar_EconIneq
Real time data on mobilty, commutes & contacts https://covid19.gleamproject.org/mobility
Real time data on mobilty, commutes & contacts https://covid19.gleamproject.org/mobility
E Asian CDC public health guidance to prevent outbreaks: Avoid the 3C's
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation 2. Crowded places with many ppl nearby 3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000619576.pdf https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1262130133135052800
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation 2. Crowded places with many ppl nearby 3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000619576.pdf https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1262130133135052800
Xi's speech at the 73th World Health Assembly. Highlights:
Cheap vaccines; set up pan-Africa CDC; Debt service suspension; global medical stockpiles; assessment of what went wrong by WHO after epidemic is suppressed.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xinhuanet.com%2F2020-05%2F18%2Fc_1126001593.htm https://twitter.com/ZichenWanghere/status/1262333584075079680
Cheap vaccines; set up pan-Africa CDC; Debt service suspension; global medical stockpiles; assessment of what went wrong by WHO after epidemic is suppressed.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xinhuanet.com%2F2020-05%2F18%2Fc_1126001593.htm https://twitter.com/ZichenWanghere/status/1262333584075079680
Whether Corona or Coal, its becoming more & more clear, that the fate of the world turns on the China Question. How would things be now if epidemic control strategy in Xi's pivotal February 3rd speech was widely read & acted upon in other countries? https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xinhuanet.com%2Fpolitics%2F2020-02%2F15%2Fc_1125578886.htm
Amazing that so many countries -- large & small, poor & rich -- have built their #TestTraceIsolate system alongside border surveillance to nearly stop the virus. 45 and counting! ht @yaneerbaryam @EndCoronavirus https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries
Put this out on Mar 25th when corona was surging and going to hell in a handbasket in so many places & got pushback. Now, nearly 50 countries have beat back the virus with focused #TestTraceIsolate effort. https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1242999029996359680
“The world has come into this moment with divisions among its great powers& incompetence at the highest levels of government of terrifying proportions. We will pass through this, but into what?”
Martin wolf questions US/UK ability to mimic E Asian states. https://www.ft.com/content/d5f05b5c-7db8-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
Martin wolf questions US/UK ability to mimic E Asian states. https://www.ft.com/content/d5f05b5c-7db8-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
The first flight carrying Medical supplies from Shanghai landed in NYC on 29th Mar. Since then, 151 flights nonstop, largely from Asia, have landed. https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/images/188179
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1244300150253727744
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1244300150253727744
Even after terrible 3 months, w over 200K lives in Europe, just ~5% have been infected (higher in large cities). 90-95% are still naive to virus. There is no deadly herd immunity shortcut to building #TestTraceIsolate health system. https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1263246859054641152
Delayed action -> virus plateaus in US/EU at horribly high levels
Brazil, Mexico, India, Russia, S Africa have surging infections. Their path without #TestTraceIsolate is 10 TIMES more deaths by August.
Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Mumbai: Time to act is now.
https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections
Brazil, Mexico, India, Russia, S Africa have surging infections. Their path without #TestTraceIsolate is 10 TIMES more deaths by August.
Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Mumbai: Time to act is now.
https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections
Latin America accounted a third of cases reported this week. São Paulo, the largest city in Brazil & the W Hemisphere, is sliding to the catastrophe of NYC. https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1259849075295424515
India's mad, bad & dangerous lockdowns began March 24th. Modi ignored scientists who advised #TestTraceIsolate ala Kerala. Ignored bureaucrats who advised PDS foodgrains for all in cities regardless of papers. Thread on cascading economic & health crisis https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1242479304744763394
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1242479304744763394
"If we locked down 1 week later,we would have had about a sixfold increase in infected cases & a 16-fold increase in deaths. If we locked down 4 weeks later, the number jumps to over 30 million infected cases,& over 3 million deaths" #viraltime @adam_tooze https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/house-was-fire-top-chinese-virologist-how-china-and-us-have-met-pandemic
In an exponential outbreak, timescale is set not by us but by the virus' generation time or time btw h-to-h infections. Time has ticked ferociously fast since December. In #viraltime, delay, from unknown to known, known to reaction, is extremely costly https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/house-was-fire-top-chinese-virologist-how-china-and-us-have-met-pandemic
Delay in US was due to governance. Specifically, political veto points in NYC and Seattle. Powerful organized actors in Seattle (Boeing, Amazon,unions, schools) got on board early with public health depts lockdown & #TestTraceIsolate. Those in NYC didn't. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not
Virologist @trvrb in Seattle whose Jan post was like a bomb: "This genomic data represented one of the 1st...indications of sustained epidemic spread. As this became clear to me, I spent the week of Jan 20 alerting every public health official" #viraltime
https://bedford.io/blog/genomic-epi-for-ncov-response/
https://bedford.io/blog/genomic-epi-for-ncov-response/
New York Times memoriam front page for May 24 as US death toll 100,000
"There is a problem with numbers: They are the same whether counting grains of sand, or people. Complexity is a better measure. Each person is an incredibly complex and irreplaceable treasure." - @yaneerbaryam
"There is a problem with numbers: They are the same whether counting grains of sand, or people. Complexity is a better measure. Each person is an incredibly complex and irreplaceable treasure." - @yaneerbaryam
Nice thread on how Japan's cluster response team formed 3C rule:
Avoid:
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation
2. Crowded places
3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
Role of rapid learning & citizens' changed behavior.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000619576.pdf https://twitter.com/HironoriFunabi1/status/1241734715175993345
Avoid:
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation
2. Crowded places
3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
Role of rapid learning & citizens' changed behavior.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000619576.pdf https://twitter.com/HironoriFunabi1/status/1241734715175993345
