Brexit predictions for 2020:
* The year will start off calmer as the public think it’s been resolved
* As negotiations start in earnest, exactly the same unresolved issues will reemerge, Irish border, regulatory alignment, European courts, length of transition

* Whether the UK gets free trade without free movement will remain a huge issue
* As time passes, the right of the Conservatives will push against regulatory alignment and free movement
* The Irish border will return to the fore, exactly as before

* Over the year it will become clear that the EU still won’t do the magical things Brexiteers claim it would
* It still won’t let the UK sell into Europe unless it can sell into the UK on equal standards described by the UK-less EU

* It still won’t have deals unless the UK finds a solution to the Irish border
* It won’t be able to break the connections between the four freedoms without causing dissent on the continent

* The British right will start the year claiming everything will work out fine and by late summer will be condemning Europe, saying they’re being stubborn and intransigent for doing precisely what they’ve always said they’d do and the right told everyone they didn’t mean

* And by the end of the year, the trade deal will still not be done because of parliament disagreeing on the terms and the disconnect between what the right claims is possible and what the EU will actually do

* Which will leave the country facing a no deal Brexit unless there is another extension in December 2020
* During all this time, anyone pointing out the problems and inevitability of the whole thing will be branded a remoaner and told to shut up

* The second half of the year will feel exactly like the last couple of years, if not a bit worse because the reality will be clearer
* if I had to put money on it, I’d say it’s slightly more likely that Boris and the Conservatives will balk at a no deal Brexit in Dec 2020

* And that there will be another extension despite everything they’re saying now
* During this time, polling support for Brexit will be roughly steady as a slight minority with probably a 1-3% drift towards Remain and a consistent growth in the sense that the poll was a mistake

* However it remains possible that Boris will take the UK out of the EU without a deal, and I have *no sense* of what that would be actually like, except there would likely be a few immediate obvious problems - trucks at Dover and customs checks ...

... which would probably be blustered through and not immediately catastrophic, with the true implications taking six months to be really felt.

* If there’s an extension, my guess is these fights will end up still going on for another year until a conclusion is made, with years of animosity and frustration afterwards

* If there isn’t, then my guess is even more fights, some incredibly large protests on the streets, and some significant civil unrest once the implications are felt.

* Either way, I’d be *amazed* if the situation was even vaguely resolved within three years, much of which will be divisive fighting at *least* of the level of the last year
* I also think it’s borderline inevitable we’ll see a vote to unify Ireland within ten years

Whether or not I’m right or not I guess we’ll find out in the course of the year. Possibly as the right allege it’ll all be effortless and simple and all the fighting is over. If that’s the case, I will accept I was totally wrong. I don’t think that will happen.

If you’ve managed to get through all of that, I’d love to get your sense. Am I too optimistic or pessimistic or roughly right?