1. ZIMBABWE’S PROSPECTS FOR 2020 - Happy New Year to all friends and followers here. To add to the many good wishes you have already received, I hope 2020 will bring to you peace, healing and happiness. For many whatever 2020 brings will be shaped by development in our motherland

2. It is thus important to reflect on Zimbabwe’s prospects for the next 12 months, with the hope that we can plan for the year ahead. I think there are three interrelated factors that shape Zim’s outlook for 2020 - (a) threat of drought (b) poor economic recovery and (c) politics

3. DROUGHT - the threat of a severe drought looms. Many regions of the country have received significantly below average rainfall, with many communities behind with their planting. Even the president’s own maize crop was showing signs of distress a few weeks ago.

4. The looming drought comes after another bad season, many communities are already food insecure, lost financial wealth to hyperinflation throughout 2019 and livestock to the drought. Resilience to a poor 2020 harvest is already low. The food security situation is extremely bad!

5. ECONOMY - The drought adds to an already fragile economy. Poor harvest will affect incomes and depress demand - affecting domestic businesses. We are likely to see many closures. Depressed agriculture exports will reduce forex availability when the country needs to import food

6. This will add to the pressure on the struggling ZWL - it’s value should continue to tumble throughout 2020 unless there is a bailout of some sort. A tumbling ZWL will fuel already high inflation, further eroding the value of whatever little people have left.

7. Overall, economic fundamentals will remain weak with shortages of electricity & fuel, and depressed domestic demand continuing to hold back recovery in the non-agriculture sectors - there is zero prospects for recovery of jobs market. Unemployment and low earning will persist!

8. POLITICS - the looming food shortages & continued weak economy will present political challenges for Govt. But my view is the main “political dynamic” will be within ZANU-PF. Without some negotiation for a GNU, only the ZANU controlled Army will shape Zim’s political outcome

9. It is likely we will see new factions emerging in ZANU-PF. There will be serious jostling to control the army, but whoever loses that contest may look at other means to counter their military disadvantage. This is where Zim’s long term stability gets into serious trouble!!

10. What are the options for the ZANU faction that loses control of the army? The police? Nov 2017 showed the police cannot stop a military led “political process” (it was called). The only other force that seem stronger than the police are the so called MaShurugwi.

11. The risk is high MaShurugwi will be roped into internal ZANU-PF politics. These are young man with nothing to lose, who I understand are already controlled by various ZANU-PF formation. Zim could easily become another Sierra Leone or Liberia if this not handled carefully.

12. CONCLUSION - my hope is none of the above scenarios I forecast will play out. I LOVE ZIMBABWE. But if truth be told 2020 is unlikely to be a year of prosperity. It will be one of extreme socioeconomic difficulty (2007/08 scale) with potential for serious violent conflict

13. I sincerely hope Zimbabweans come together to deal positively with the serious challenges facing the country. If not, we will lose the country we all love @MlamboProf @demetician @SaltLight74 @ChidoP2 @OpenParlyZw @Wamagaisa @daddyhope @Busisa74 @BusinessTimesZW @TrevorNcube