[ Thread on the #Libya- #Turkey “continental shelf” signed by the #GNA on Nov 27. ]

#Turkey 1st asked the #GNA to sign this very deal in Autumn 2018. Why didn’t #Tripoli sign then?

Reason is: #Serraj govt knew full well it’d alienate important #EU states such as #Greece & #Cyprus. Also—1 yr ago—the #GNA had much greater hope #France & #US would help it survive.

#Turkey’s military intervention in support of #GNA-aligned forces greatly diminished in breadth and intensity roughly 8 wks ago.

#Turkey’s recession combined w/ growing #Russian presence made #GNA desperate to “bet the ranch” in an attempt to revive #Ankara’s engagement.

Now the #GNA has crossed the rubicon by signing w/ #Turkey, the #EU is going to heap opprobrium on it.

From now on, #Greece & #Cyprus will veto everything in the #EU when it comes to assisting the #GNA.

They will also rush to bolster their diplomatic & economic support for #LNA

How interested the #US in this regard?

#Washington is deeply committed in supporting the #Egypt- #Israel- #Greece bloc in #EasternMed.

Thus, the #Americans will not at all appreciate the maritime #MoU that #Serraj signed. He just gave them another reason to sympathize w/ #Haftar.

Does #Turkey intend on enforcing the accord? No; not really.

#Ankara needs the deal mainly for rhetorical, doctrinal & *legal* purpose.

Amid #Turkey’s growing isolation in the #Med, the #Libya deal helps it make a case for its own interpretation of territorial-water conventions