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Morales gave his resignation speech from his base in the coca-leaf-producing area of Chapare, where he became a union leader. Hard to imagine a safer place for him, not only in Bolivia but in the world. Then, why did he ask for asylum and leave the country? /1
Over the 14 years that Morales was in power, the Chapare has been celebrated as a successful example of ‘social control’. The area is under the territorial and political control of coca-leaf growers from the 6 federations that Morales still leads. /2 https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/eu-backed-coca-project-success-bolivia/
Coca-leaf growers monitor the production of coca, while law-enforcement presence in the area is limited. In some instances, the police were actually forced to escape when attempting to carry out criminal investigations. /3 http://www.la-razon.com/index.php?_url=/nacional/seguridad_nacional/Cochabamba-policias-salvan-linchados-Chapare_0_2199380101.html
While other forms of violence remain, one of the often-cited measures of success of the social control model is that state violence has basically disappeared.
Now, why did Morales leave the country if he was already in this fortress? /4 https://www.stabilityjournal.org/articles/10.5334/sta.440/
Now, why did Morales leave the country if he was already in this fortress? /4 https://www.stabilityjournal.org/articles/10.5334/sta.440/
It would be unfair and dehumanizing to question Morales fearing for his life. Once the police mutinied on November 9th and 10th, Morales disappeared from public view. In Mexico, he claimed that a member of his security team was going to turn him in. /5 https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/en-video-evo-morales-agradece-amlo-por-salvarle-la-vida
Also, as colleagues pointed out, before Morales resigned a mob looted his sister’s house while the MAS govt had lost its capacity to contain violence. He accepted new elections on November 10th from a military base in El Alto and then flew to Chapare. /6 https://twitter.com/GabrielHetland/status/1199814179907133440?s=20
However, fear alone may not explain his departure to Mexico. The articles below provide insights on the negotiations that took place between opposition and officialism on November 11th, apparently in part at Morales' request. /7 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/24/world/americas/how-an-unknown-female-senator-came-to-replace-the-bolivian-president-evo-morales.html
Salvatierra, senator of the MAS, demanded a safe pass for Morales so he could leave the country as a pre-condition to accepting the constitutional succession. Then, negotiators convinced a doubtful military to let a Mexican airplane enter the country. /8 https://www.paginasiete.bo/nacional/2019/11/17/la-historia-no-contada-de-la-salida-de-evo-morales-la-sucesion-de-anez-237603.html
It seems that negotiators felt that the constitutional succession, set to fall on Añez, was under threat due to increasing violence on the streets, mainly from MAS supporters. Due to the power vacuum and increasing chaos, the military could have justified taking over power. /9
There were pros and cons for Morales to leave the country. Among the pros, he gained an international platform from which to denounce ‘the coup’. This would have been much harder to do from Chapare, especially after the MAS lost control of state media outlets. /10
His departure also played out neatly with the narrative of exile and a repressive regime that was after him. He denounced an arrest warrant against him right after resigning, but the police commander appointed by the MAS during the mutinies denied it. /11 https://www.telesurtv.net/news/bolivia-policia-niega-orden-aprehension-evo-morales-20191111-0001.html
So far, the government has not issued an official arrest warrant against Morales, though the General Attorney has opened investigations against him for terrorism. This action reminds us of the worst version of former MAS minister Juan Ramón Quintana. /12 http://lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20191122/lanchipa-ordena-investigar-oficio-evo-terrorismo
On the downside of Morales leaving the country, by doing so, he gave the opposition the opportunity to argue that he had abandoned the presidency. It seems the MAS planned to either reject Morales’ resignation in congress /13 https://erbol.com.bo/nacional/declaraci%C3%B3n-del-tc-de-2001-abri%C3%B3-paso-la-sucesi%C3%B3n-ipso-facto-de-a%C3%B1ez
or to extend the power vacuum by sabotaging the transition. They did not foresee that the opposition would use article 170 of the constitution to appoint Añez.
Finally, those opposed to Morales benefit from keeping him abroad because the MAS and its social organizations /14
Finally, those opposed to Morales benefit from keeping him abroad because the MAS and its social organizations /14
have lost a key source of cohesion. Different factions within the MAS are already denouncing those who surrounded Morales. This senator, for instance, accuses them of reifying, misleading and allowing him to go too far. http://bit.ly/37JNflf
A new article on the negotiations that led to #Morales departure. By Bolivian journalist Susana López https://twitter.com/jderpic/status/1200625221113450496?s=20
