I am writing this tweet just as London suffered a terrorist attack, but I still think it is unwise for Macron to characterize #terrorism as the main enemy, especially in the context of #NATO. My reasons in the thread below:

1/Terrorism is 1st a symptom of the weakness of our own societies. It poses a strategic threat only insofar as its psychological impact magnifies its limited physical impact, & is exploited by the extreme right and hostile powers. Describing it as the main threat helps terrorists

2/ Any effective strategy against terrorism must create a wedge between terrorist groups that have a local agenda driven by local grievances and transnational groups that are a real threat. The “terrorism” label makes that distinction more difficult to operationalize.

3/ That confusion is amplified when terrorism is mentioned in the context of NATO. NATO is inevitably associated with the misuse of US power in the Middle East, that has contributed to the expansion of terrorism.

4/ While denying safe havens to transnational terrorism requires military action, much of the fight against transnational terrorism is intelligence and police work, for which NATO is ill-suited.

5/ NATO is a military organization, poorly designed to execute strategies that integrate military action with political and developmental strategies targeting locally-driven terrorists (see Afghanistan...)

6/Lastly, in the context of NATO, comparing the threats of terrorism, Russia and China adds to the confusion. Ranking threats of a different nature does not make sense.

7/ #Russia threat exists through a combination of military intimidation & disruption. #NATO (and increasingly the Europeans if US fades away) has a role to play in making sure that intimidation is ruled out.That doesn’t exclude a political track to revive arms control and CBMs.

8/ #China is not today a military threat for Europeans. But, as the EU commission put it, it is a « systemic rival » that requires a response strategy, ideally coordinated with the US, but not through NATO.