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The @NJPolicy office is officially closed today, but I’ve got a brain worm on #climatechange that’s been bugging me. Thinking out loud here to invite thoughts by others bc these are large & difficult to grasp issues that we absolutely have to figure out. So... 1/
Essentially everyone understands that there's going to be significant, life-altering levels of sea level rise along the Jersey shore. Not just the shore, but also urban areas like JC, Hoboken, Newark, and more. Here's a great piece on NJ's coastal risk. 2/ https://njcoastalrisk.com/
According to that incredible report by @rhodium_group, "the expected avg annual loss from hurricane-related wind & flood damage today is likely $670 million to $1.3 billion higher than it would have been if sea levels and hurricane activity in the 1980s remained constant." 
3/
3/
Superstorm Sandy cost NJ approximately $29.4 billion according to then-Gov Christie, and the cost for NY state & NJ eclipsed $70 billion. So we're already talking big figures for major events, but NJ can't even afford costs for annual damage as of now. 4/ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-sandy-costestimate/nj-governor-estimates-sandy-will-cost-state-at-least-29-4-billion-idUSBRE8AN01920121124
So, if we know that sea level rise is going to worsen significantly, we should probably figure out the domino effects that will take place. Mainly, at what scale & in which direction will people migrate away from the shore? Can we even figure that out? 5/
Assuming we can figure out the scale & direction of migration away from the shore - ostensibly a climate refugee crisis - can we determine which counties & towns/cities people will likely migrate to?
That sounds really tough to project, BUT... 6/
That sounds really tough to project, BUT... 6/
Research on migration due to climate change is advancing pretty quickly. Since 2010 there's been about 100 publications a year looking into this issue, so there's a lot of methodology to glean some ideas & info. This piece is from @IOM_GMDAC 7/
https://migrationdataportal.org/themes/environmental_migration
https://migrationdataportal.org/themes/environmental_migration
So, if we can possibly figure out the scale & direction of migration AND generally figure out which counties and/or towns migrants will end up in (due to resources/lifestyle/employment/etc), can we do the most important thing that will be necessary for adaptation... 8/
Can we figure out the investments that will be necessary in housing, transportation, education & energy for those counties/towns to successfully absorb pending population increases? This, I assume, is the most difficult piece to project...but it'd be incredible if we could. 9/
We're learning a lot about costs re: damage from sea level rise, but the other side of that coin is the costs of successful mitigation & adaptation. NJ, for being a coastal state, hasn't done nearly enough thinking on this front. The 
is ticking. 10/ https://assets.floodiq.com/2019/02/9ddfda5c3f7295fd97d60332bb14c042-firststreet-floodiq-mid-atlantc-release.pdf
is ticking. 10/ https://assets.floodiq.com/2019/02/9ddfda5c3f7295fd97d60332bb14c042-firststreet-floodiq-mid-atlantc-release.pdf
The costs of damage are going to hit certain counties particularly hard - specifically Hudson, Bergen & Cape May. But when taking into account size of economy, Cape May & Salem county rocket to the top of the list for costs as share of GDP. These are big, big annual figures. 11/
Take these prices and add on top the need to alter the built environment in other parts of the state to account for migration & population change & we have ourselves a very, very costly situation. And if you know anything about NJ, we're not prepared for additional costs. 12/
Many civic leaders & lawmakers view the state's pension & health obligations to be the biggest fiscal threats we have, but the effects of climate change, as they compound, are gonna be much, much larger. Yet another reason why raising revenue is so crucial for the long-term. 13/
What makes all of this even more challenging is that housing, commercial & business development in NJ is occurring in areas where sea-level rise is expected to be the worst! i.e. JC, Hoboken, Newark, Asbury Park, Long Branch, etc.
We clearly need a plan. 14/
We clearly need a plan. 14/
It's good that @GovMurphy signed an EO last month to create a "Statewide Climate Change Resilience Strategy." Honestly, that should have been done ten years ago, but better late than never. If it's gonna be successful, migration must be considered. 15/
https://www.nj.gov/governor/news/news/562019/approved/20191029a.shtml
https://www.nj.gov/governor/news/news/562019/approved/20191029a.shtml
I could continue ranting, but essentially, NJ needs a 2050 plan. What will the state look like in 30 years & what must govt do to ensure it handles these inevitable changes successfully? Tax & budget policy is gonna be a major part of that. We need to get serious, quick. 16/
Not only do we need to be better on tax & budget policy, but we need to center racial equity & economic justice throughout this entire process. Failure to do so will only further harm NJ'ans & exacerbate existing inequities - esp w/ poverty & health.
#ClimateChangeIsReal 17/17
#ClimateChangeIsReal 17/17
Obligatory tagging of the critical ppl & orgs in NJ who will have a lot to say on this topic. @EnvironmentNJ @NJSierraClub @HCDNNJ @RegionalPlan @Tri_State @NewJerseyFuture @NJWEC @ProfAnaBaptista @JerseyRenews @DougOMalleyENJ @FundforNJ @grdodge @NJBPU @NJDEPMcCabe
