I& #39;ve been meaning to tweet my 2p on what we might expect from the NAO / Atlantic jet this coming winter.

And since November is nearly over, I& #39;d better get on with it!

There is strong agreement between the dynamical models on NAO+. Where does this come from...?

Could well be the SSTs. Pic is the current SST anomalies compared to our NAO sensitivity pattern ( https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0038.1,">https://doi.org/10.1175/J... @HughScottBaker @ChrisEForest).

Warm subtropics in Pacific and Atlantic favour NAO+ (as does warm tropical Indian Ocean, though we don& #39;t get skill there)

Some other factors (maybe QBO, solar) could favour the opposite, and the stratosphere is getting disturbed right now, which could be a sign of NAO- to come.

Certainly an interesting case, with some statistical predictions disagreeing with the dynamical ones.

Altogether, I think I& #39;ll side with the dynamical models, as they show strong agreement and their skill tends to be highest in the multi-model mean - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838.">https://doi.org/10.1029/2...

What would this mean if it comes true? For the UK a mild winter overall, likely wet and stormy as well...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean/nao-description">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/...