1/ A small thread on the pedo guy case. Disclaimer: I'm not an attorney, but I did once stay at Holiday Inn Express across the street from a taco stand frequented by students attending a second-rate law school in Carbondale, IL. This qualifies me to tweet about the case. $TSLAQ

2/ After reading the judge's well-written pre-trial order twice, it seems as though the entire trial hinges on whether @elonmusk meant 'pedophile' when he tweeted 'pedo guy'. Musk has argued he meant 'creepy old guy'. $TSLAQ

3/ To drive this point home, let's do a thought experiment. Imagine if instead of tweeting 'pedo guy', Elon had tweeted 'you pedophile' like in the image below. $TSLAQ

4/ In that case, it seems like a slam dunk. Reconsider the judges order with the new tweet in mind. #1 check. #2 check. #3 check. #4 check. #5 check. No brainer. $TSLAQ

5/ To me, the most damning evidence against Elon's assertion that he didn't mean 'pedophile' is his 'signed dollar tweet'. The tweet he responded to specifically says "he's calling the guy... a pedo". $TSLAQ

6/ By responding with 'Bet ya a signed dollar it's true', Elon is not only indicating he meant 'pedophile', he is effectively doubling down by emphasizing he is confident it is true. 'Calling the guy.. a pedo' is even more direct than 'pedo guy'. $TSLAQ

7/ The subsequent behavior only further emphasizes what Elon meant (hiring an investigator to prove it, the infamous Buzzfeed email). But this tweet is the most damning. The proximity in time to the 'pedo guy' tweet makes it the strongest evidence of his state of mind. $TSLAQ

8/ Elon could have responded with 'I didn't mean pedophile, I meant creepy old guy', or 'I was only kidding', or 'Don't take my tweet literally.' He didn't. He said 'Bet ya a signed dollar it's true.' $TSLAQ

9/ Civil cases are decided by a preponderance of evidence standard. Given everything we know, is it 'more likely than not' Elon meant 'pedophile' when he tweeted 'pedo guy' last July? $TSLAQ

10/ I think it is virtually impossible to conclude otherwise. Elon gets away with so much, but I don't know how anybody can claim with a straight face that he most likely didn't mean pedophile. It defies all logic. <fin> $TSLAQ