Beginning to wonder if #geoeconomics versus #geopolitics (as catchwords of interest) point to where perceptions of systemic risk are focused? Thread: 1/

The origin of "geopolitics" stems from a Swedish scholar, Rudolph Kjellen, at the beginning of the (20th century and becomes a mainstay soon after the end of WW2 https://www.britannica.com/topic/geopolitics 2/

The origin of "geoeconomics" stems from Edward Luttwak in the article "From Geopolitics to Geo-economics" in 1990: https://www.jstor.org/stable/42894676?seq=1 3/

The focus for each was where systemic risk would come from in the future: from "political rivals" in the realm of geopolitics, and later from economic frictions that would create geopolitical rivalries 4/

Under the political rivalries of the early 20th century, the economics were far more vertical than they are today, with imperial and territorial supply chains contributing directly to national wealth, in general. Trade was between nation-states, regions or empires. 5/

In contrast, post-Cold War and mid-20th century political-economic decentralization, the role of the state and territory changed to augment the promotion of private investment, supply chains, and horizontal networks of commerce with a stable foundation: https://abdn.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/after-geopolitics-from-the-geopolitical-social-to-geoeconomics 6/

With the decoupling of Chimerica, the threat of information technology (5G) as a source of accelerated sovereignty erosion, and the need to stabilize supply chain flows in order to uphold the solid foundation of the economic system developed post-Cold War, 7/

the concern appears to be finding a way to maintain those flows. Naturally the focus shifts to economic risks because the political systems across the globe are dependent on economic networks to sustain social contracts. 8/

The state's ability to fulfill social contracts built on economic stability is under threat. This re-introduces elements of political threat (geopolitics) to the scope of public and private risk management in a way that is quite different from traditional geopolitical issues. 9/

The issue today is with access and control over horizontal networks that are resistant to control based entirely on their architecture alone - an architecture that was introduced in the 1970s and has been intensely refined for the last 30+ years 10/

The focus on the systemic risk today seems to be over access to and positions in, and benefits gained from the control of, economic networks which appear in danger of balkanization. That's why #geoeconomics is different from #geopolitics - politics and economics are equally 11/

critical now. However, economics flows have greater leverage over political decision, rather than the other way around (as generally perceived) during the political conflicts of a more "vertically-oriented" economic era from which "geopolitics" emerged. /END