A thread on unitented consequences of Turkey's stance before the NATO summit. It's obvious that from the Turkish perspective Turkish diplomats are just doing their job right by bargaining hard for the country's interests. It's also nothing surprising. I've heard many legends https://twitter.com/MenekseTK/status/1200266437904019456
about Turkey's diplomats in NATO: that they are always tough negotiators, caring only for Turkey's interests and paying no attention to what other diplomats think of them. While in the short term this may be sucessful, this time the situation is a bit different and I am not so
sure if the Turks are aware of the consequences in the long term. Let me give you an example from Poland. Up to very recently, a Pole asked on the street about Tukey, would have most certainly answered sth like this: aaa, Turkey, the country which had never recognised the
partition of Poland, quoting the famous formula "the ambassador of Lehistan has not yet arrived". Yet, today the Polish public opinion is becoming increasingly sceptic towards Turkey. Just quick search on the net will show you that Turkish policy is seen as anti-Kurdish, that
there are voices claiming that Kurdish movement, represented by the PKK or YPG, is democratic and since Turkey is not, Turkish decision-makers want to quash all Kurdish aspirations. Of course, there are also many voices claiming that the authoritarian nature of Turkish regime
is increasing its anti-NATO stance, being the main factor behind Turkey-Russia honeymoon. After @Reuters published the info on Turkey's "grand bargain" before the NATO summit, Polish media immediately went abuzz with it and the voices claiming Turey is just a
Russian Trojan horse in NATO announced their triumph ("ha, we told you so"!). Of course I know that life is not that simple. Yet, to be honest, the fault is not on our side. Turkey has extreme problems with explaining its policy to the outside world, because
Turkish decision-makers tend to believe that the arguments which go well with their domestic electorate will be also accepted abroad. It doesn't work like this. You may say: "Why is it important? The politicians make decisions, not the public opinion". That's right,
however, a stance of the public opinion increases the cost for politicians of their choices. Let me get back to the Polish-Turkish relations. Up to date Polish politicians could have easily argued that Turkey is a tough partner, yet it never does anything that would run counter
to the Polish interests. It will be extremely hard for them to argue so now. The deterrence policy towards Russia is something we Poles treat extremely seriously and now, especially taking under considerations abovementioned problems in explaining policy by Turkey, the Turks'
stance is seen as shooting at a fly with a bazooka. Of course, you may argue that from the Turkish perspective the cost is not too high. After all, bilateral trade between Turkey in Poland barely reaches 4 bln USD and cooperation is limited in comparision to other countries.
This may be true, yet I would like to point your attention to the fact that Poland was probably one of the last countries in the EU sympathethic towards Turkey and its interests. It definitely wouldn't be to Turkey's benefit if the equation changes.