1/
Thread: 2017 results & some Surrey constituencies.

I still see people posting the 2017 GE results to argue that Labour are the tactical vote in several places including Woking, Esher & Walton and Surrey Heath. It drives me a bit mad so here is my first ever thread.

2/ These are seats with historically impenetrable Tory majorities. If you look at the last 4 GEs what you see is, broadly, the Tory vote holding while the non-Tory vote oscillates between Labour and Lib Dem.

Here are the results for Esher.

2/ And for Woking

And for Surrey Heath

4/ The 2017 results show, more than anything, non-Tory Remain voters choosing Labour because a) the LDs seemed out of the picture after the 2015 post-coalition slump and b) Corbyn implied he was moving to Remain. He then used those votes to justify pursuit of Lexit. So.

5/ This will not happen again, especially now he’s announced his intention to spend the next two weeks chasing the Northern leave vote.

But more important than that - the ONLY way the Tories lose these seats is if historic, longstanding Con voters turn their backs on them.

6/ in large numbers. And this is doable. It’s clear that moderate and remainer Tory voters are horrified and disgusted by Johnson’s antics and the threat of Brexit in any form. But the possibly bitter pill that Labour have to swallow that they have in Corbyn someone who is an .

7/ absolute anathema to these key voters in the Home Counties. Someone who voted for Cameron in 2015 and May in 2017 is NOT going to vote for Corbyn. It’s as simple as that. So PLEASE stop living in cloud cuckoo land & saying that the 2017 results mean Labour have a chance here.

8/They don’t and the only possible tactical vote is for the Lib Dems and anything else splits the remain vote and lets the Tories continue to own Surrey.

END.

Sorry I cocked up the thread thing a bit. First timer.