So I did some more analysis on the MRP because a) I'm a huge nerd and b) I wanted to get a sense of how things could change if the polling shifts over the next few weeks....

I started by sorting the seats into:

Ones that are close (0-6pt lead)
Are heavily leaning towards a party (7-12pt lead)
Safe (13pt lead plus)

Doing this I found that the Tories have:

276 safe seats
38 that are leaning towards them but close vs Labour
21 more heavily leaning towards them vs Labour

Labour are currently winning 211 seats. So even if the polling moves significantly and they win every single seat that is either leaning Tory or heavily leaning Tory at the moment they only get to 270 seats.

That wouldn't even be a majority with the SNP.

To win all those seats currently leaning Tory would require a uniform national swing of 6% from where we are now. Labour would actually have to be slightly ahead in the polls. And they still wouldn't have enough seats to form a Govt without two other parties supporting them.

Which is all a long way of saying that even if Labour have an amazing two weeks and completely close the gap on the Tories they're still not going to be the biggest party and governing would still be very difficult.

What's really interesting looking through the data is how many seats that use to be quite marginal are now completely safe for the Tories - particularly in poorer areas of the South-East like Essex and Medway.

Without Scotland; without the South; without any rural areas the path to a Labour majority not just in this election but for the next few cycles looks incredibly narrow.