A thread to go with the poll I posted, regarding the options for #PlaidCymru and #Green voters in #Montgomeryshire / #Maldwyn. I want to think out loud, and see where others are at.

I understand the logic of the Unite to Remain alliance, should therefore vote LibDem. BUT... 1/

My prime concern is to evict the Tories. On paper, that should also mean voting LibDem, for Montgomeryshire is historically the most Liberal seat in Britain.

Until Lembit dropped it in 2010, it had been Liberal for all but 4 years (1979-83) since 1880! 2/

Even when the Liberals were down to a taxiful in the 50s and 60s, Montgomeryshire kept electing one.

Which is why Clem Davies, the county's MP from 1929-62, ended up as party leader. There was literally no-one else to do it. He was not a well man, and never wanted the job. 3/

I've long maintained that the Liberal voting in Montgomeryshire was little more than a habit, and that once that habit was broken, it would not be coming back.

I think we're probably there now. 4/

The habit was from the days of tenant farmer (Lib) vs landowner (Tory), chapel (Lib) v church (Tory) and so on. It belongs to a bygone age, and people kept voting Liberal because that was what their family did. They were not, for the most part, liberal by nature. It was habit. 5/

Since Lembit lost it in 2010, and then Mick Bates at Senedd level the following year, the Liberal vote has been melting like Staylittle snow on a rare sunny day.

Look at the figures of the last three UK elections, since they lost it: 6/

So what to do now? I've long said (with my Plaid hat on) that at Senedd level, this is a seat Plaid should be aiming for, with a good candidate who is able to play the long game, and is prepared to do the work over two or three elections. 7/

At Westminster level - and despite this being the only seat in Wales that they've never held! - I think the same may be true of Labour.

And in this election, my hunch is that Labour may well leapfrog the LibDems - they were only 9% behind them last time. 8/

If that's likely, then I feel far more inclined to vote Labour than LibDem. I've met the Labour candidate, and was quite impressed by her. She is firmly on the indy-curious wing of the party. The LibDem candidate, by contrast, was an active Conservative until 2 years ago. 9/

And just in case anyone says "well, what about Gwlad Gwlad"? Er, dim diolch.

/ends