Am listening to Sir John Curtice @whatukthinks talking about the election with @anandMenon1 @UKandEU - clear it's a #brexit election /1
-80% remainers/leavers voting for parties that suit their cause.
-CONS gained ground amongst leave voters; LAB gained among remain voters. “All of the dynamics within camp” /2
-CONS gained ground amongst leave voters; LAB gained among remain voters. “All of the dynamics within camp” /2
Be amazing if the @YouGov poll tonight showed anything other than Tory majority, Q is how big.
BUT sign of narrowing in recent weeks...1/2pc
BUT resisting any parallel with 2017 and the 'labour surge'. /3
BUT sign of narrowing in recent weeks...1/2pc
BUT resisting any parallel with 2017 and the 'labour surge'. /3
Turnout: "boring technical reason" why turnout is going up, is that election is to be fought on new register, which has less dead folk on it! /4
also in camp that says 1) attachment to leave/remain cause creates "levels of attachment" to a political cause not seen since 1960s 2) British social survey has long asked 'how interested in politics are you?', about 30% always says 'interested' but since 2016, that's been 40% /5
Reason Tories ahead is NOT because there's a majorit in favour of leaving...polls show narrow for Remain, but it's the "differential concentration" that matters. The Tory vote has become much more of a Brexit vote; on Remain side, the vote is divided (hence need for tac voting)/6
Leave tactical voting is pretty much fixed/maxed out...so where are Remain voters...well NOT MANY people vote tactically. These are people who hate A, but are agnostic on party B/C, and this is a rare psychological situation. Most who hate A, love B. /7
So, compare with 1997, when tactical voting was significant.
Two things 1) strong 'Tories out' sentiment, united people cross-party...and most Remain voters want @BorisJohnson not to win. To that extent the motivation is there.
BUT in 97, Lab and LD's were "playing footsie"/8
Two things 1) strong 'Tories out' sentiment, united people cross-party...and most Remain voters want @BorisJohnson not to win. To that extent the motivation is there.
BUT in 97, Lab and LD's were "playing footsie"/8
Two parties were open about fact Blair wd sign a coalition deal, and Ashdown wd agree.
Not this time. Swinson thinks Corbyn as useless as Johnson..so relationship nothing like as good.
So Q is which force is more important? /9
Not this time. Swinson thinks Corbyn as useless as Johnson..so relationship nothing like as good.
So Q is which force is more important? /9
So if 1997 levels of tactical voting were replicated you would knock 20 seats of Tory tally...which wouldn't be enough to stop @BorisJohnson on current polls. /10
So now explaining how/why "MRP" works... this is tonight @YouGov poll coming out at 10pm that was accurate in 2017.....it's based on a huge 100k+ data set, which enables accurate geographical weighting that can be replicated across EACH constitutency /11
In 2017 @YouGov was one of two organsiation that used this, they said early it was going to be hung parliament - were abused roundly - and where proved right. So it's taken on big status...BUT in 2017 there was 2nd MRP exercised done for Ashcroft that showed majority of 60! /12
So it's not a magic bullet...
"If the data is crap, the MRP result will be crap"
And Ashcroft data wasn't as good as @YouGov data /13
"If the data is crap, the MRP result will be crap"
And Ashcroft data wasn't as good as @YouGov data /13
@whatukthinks On the impact of polling on politics/elections.
"At the end of the day, politicians will be politicians and if they don't like the evidence, they will ignore it."
"At the end of the day, politicians will be politicians and if they don't like the evidence, they will ignore it."
Is UK more polarised than ever? asks @anandMenon1
Yes, says Curtice, in sense that the #brexit solutions are so polarised; and so, sectorally in society, are leave/remain constituencies. /15
Yes, says Curtice, in sense that the #brexit solutions are so polarised; and so, sectorally in society, are leave/remain constituencies. /15
What's gonna happen in the election?
There's a 66% chance Tories get a majority...but 12pts is not to say Tories are 'home and dry'. /16
There's a 66% chance Tories get a majority...but 12pts is not to say Tories are 'home and dry'. /16
That's all folks...and we learned that Sir John prefers Steak and Ale pie over boeuf bourguignon 17/ENDS