1/ @NIESRorg #GeneralElection2019 analysis on minimum wages is out now. Both @Conservatives and @UKLabour are planning large increases in minimum wages, but there is no free lunch. @NuffieldFound
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Election%20Briefing%20-%20The%20Future%20Path%20of%20the%20Minumum%20Wage.pdf
#GE2019Economists

2/ @Conservatives have pledged to raise the min wage to 66.7% of the median hourly wage by 2024, & lower the age of eligibility to 21 instead of 25. @UKLabour has pledged to introduce a £10/hr rate for all workers aged 16+, excluding those covered by the apprentice rate.

3/ While there is scope for considering increases in min wages that are larger as a proportion of median wages than at present, the bidding war risks politicisation of the process through which min wages have been set up until now.

4/ There is a trade-off between increasing wages for the lowest paid & limiting job cuts or reductions in hours. Evidence in the UK largely finds no overall negative effects on employment. But there is no free lunch.

5/ Further increases might bring benefits, but some groups might be more at risk of job loss than others. Coverage of min wages various enormously by sex, work-status, occupation, geographic area for example. Some demographic groups therefore more at risk than others.

6/ Increases need to be based on evaluation of the evidence with a clear role for the Low Pay Commission to decide on precise size and timing of increases & ability to pause if evidence suggests negative effects.

7/ The min wage is not a panacea. Low-wage work cannot be legislated away by the imposition of ever higher min wage rates. Investment in education, training, infrastructure etc to boost productivity is important for determining wages. And policies such as tax credits, childcare.