oh hey, 'bout them Canucks

let's change gears for a few mins and take a look at how they're doing at different score states. this should give us some indication of coaching strategy/philosophy. and the first thing you notice is, oof so much for keeping the foot on the gas.

they are bang on league average at every other score, but get up 1 and they really have no answer for the other team switching to another gear.

and note that once they get up 2 or more, they're more willing to crank up the offence again, and the result is that the other team doesn't get as many opportunities when they do. shocking. i am shocked.

looking at shot block %, the Canucks consistently have trouble getting shots through, except when the score is tied (top chart).

and oh boy do they like to get in front of all those extra shots they give up when they're up 1. lead the league in shot blocking % in that state.

love too give up lots of shot attempts and risk injury to try and get in front of them.

now let's look at what happens to the shots that get through. first thing to notice is that the Canucks are the worst in the league when the score is tied, missing about 1/3 of the shots they take.

and when they are up 1, if they don't block the shot, there's a good chance that it will be on net. one way to read this is that they aren't really forcing opponents to take a bad shot, they just rely on getting in front of them.

now that we've looked at the shot quantities getting through, let's add the layer of quality, and look at expected goals. and here we can see that they are more likely to score at every state except when they're up 1. no surprise. and when trailing, they're in the top tier of xGF

but that xGA rate when they're up 1. oof.

so let's layer on shooting skill, goaltending, and a smidgen of luck. the Canucks are like two different teams, shootingwise, when they're tied or down 1 compared to when they are leading. league worst shooting in the former, top tier in the latter. both of these should regress.

goaltending is consistently above average, except when the score is tied. probably why they rarely score first. but that up 1 sh% and sv% combo is saving their butts given how many chances they concede with a 1 goal lead.

if they are still allowing that many opportunities against when one or both of shooting and goaltending regress, that will be ungood.

put it all together, and you get actual goal differentials. the key takeaways here are they are very likely to concede that first goal, and when they do, coming back is difficult. at least at evens. their power play has clearly saved the day.

but if they can get a lead, probably as a result of a power play, they've been pretty good at building on it. although i have to reiterate, that up 1 performance is very much a Percentage Driven Observation...