1. The very, very big difference between the 2008 Republican primary and the 2020 Democratic primary is that most states in the Republican primary had winner-take-all delegate allocations, whereas all states for Ds now have proportional.

2. I think there's a very real chance the 2008 R race would have ended in a brokered convention if all the states had been proportional. (Maybe the 2 after that, as well). McCain really struggled to break out to majority support. Mitt & Huck probably go all the way to September.

3. If you're Mitt Romney in 2008, your odds of being the nominee at a brokered convention go up pretty dramatically as the markets start melting down in earnest in August - but before the big bailouts that might have favored the populist Huck.

4. Regardless of how *that* race played out, it's not that hard to see a 3 or 4 candidate race go all the way this time, maybe even a 2-way race with one persistent spoiler. Kasich wanted that role in Trump-Cruz, but the GOP's winner-take-all states precluded it.

5. We tend to dismiss the brokered convention because it gets predicted by drama-thirsty journalists every 4 years (like the incumbent VP getting sacked) and never happens. But this time, *the rules* are different. Rules of the game can have a big impact on outcomes.

6. Besides the rules, the best recipe for a brokered convention in the 21st century is a party divided into factions that want to feel represented. Does that sound like today's Democratic Party to you?

7. A brokered convention might not actually be bad! It would make it harder for Trump to define his (uncertain) opponent early, could give time for party bigs to get the choice right, head off prematurely anointing a nominee who is almost 80. But tricky to navigate.

8. And it's not just those of us on the Right who see the potential for this coming a mile away https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1199422898626277376