Here is the problem with betting "sharp action" or chasing steam. I keep seeing it come up on my timeline from Action Network, etc and touts tweeting stale CBB totals which already moved. To keep it simple, here is the scenario with a random recent CBB total. (1/5)

Today's Gardner Webb / UTenn Martin total opened 147 and got bet down and closed 140 @ Pinny and 141 @ Cris. The problem with sharp action is that these betting websites would tell you there is sharp action on the under. However, you do not know if this is a true move or (2/5)

groups just manipulating the market. They easily could be betting that under to move that number on screen so that when PPHs copy, they can bet that over OFF screen at an even better number (over 141 instead of over 147). In this case, what all these websites are telling (3/5)

you is sharp action, is just a head fake. In the case that the move offshore was a true move, all the value is gone. The under 147 now has no value at under 141, and steam chasing a move like this long term is significantly -EV. The Gardner Webb / UTM game just finished (4/5)

and landed on 145. People betting the opening under 147 won, and everyone who chased steam (under 144/143/142/141...etc) lost. The inherent problem is that you don't know which it is and long term chasing steam or presumed sharp action will not be profitable (5/5).