Front row seats at the ⁦ @bildgta⁩ forum this morning! Will share some market stats.

Adjustment year following year of uncertainty in GTA new home market. Over 21,000 new condo sales through October

Single-family new home sales improved in 2019 in almost all municipalities in the GTA

New condo projects in the GTA launched at nearly $900 psf in 2019. New launches drive unit sales.

Ngo of Altus mentions that 2019 has been a year of incentives, not only upgrades but financial incentives like rent guarantees.

11 projects cancelled in 2019 at 1,100 units, down from 16 buildings and 4,400 units in 2018.

Wow, almost half of GTA new condo sales in 2019 is in the ‘905’ area!

Only 247 units of completed and unabsorbed new condos in the GTA.

Just a reminder to all the bears that went nuts in January 2015 about this figure: I told you it would decline and wouldn’t be an issue.

Hard construction costs up 28% from 2017 to 2019 for toronto high-rise apartments

As of late 2017/early 2018, new condo prices were up 50% in the City of Toronto. You read that correctly. Hard to see in the chart, but the market growth has subsided.

$9.8 Billion spent on renovations in the Toronto CMA, compare that to $6.4 Billion on new homes.

35% of people that borrow money for renovations use a HELOC, but less than half of residential renovations are done with borrowed funds.

Job growth and population growth continue to drive housing demand

Despite strong fundamentals, intentions to buy and intentions to renovate are down via results from the Altus FIRM survey

92 condo projects with 26,000 units in GTA condo developments with 70% of its inventory sold. Potential for 30,000 GTA condo completions in 2020 and/or 2021.

In conclusion, Altus expects sales increases in the new single-family and condominium apartment markets in 2020 but slow growth or flat pricing. Renovation spending to increase as resale activity increases and interest rates stay put, but average spend to stay flat.

Wanted to add a couple of BILDs tweets onto the end of this thread. Unsold inventory in the new market is increasing, but still well below historical highs https://twitter.com/bildgta/status/1199324780597526529

Nearly 40% of renovation spending in the Toronto CMA is on apartments. Not typically what we think about when we hear the word renovations. Spending billions on renos adds to resale price inflation. https://twitter.com/bildgta/status/1199330497907871750

We're finally seeing more rental apartment starts in Toronto, but still pales in comparison to condo apartment activity https://twitter.com/bildgta/status/1199333403394490368