So ppl have been wondering why did BJP go in for the weak alliance with Ajit Pawar when it appears that they will fail in the floor test and the SS-NCP-INC combine will easily assume power. The general consensus is that it was a bad call. I have a different theory. Thread...

After the elections, as soon as SS started playing tantrums, BJP leaders understood that Govt formation in this assembly will be difficult. Considering the arithmetic, the only hope was to have fresh elections.(2/n)

Meanwhile, the #AyodhyaVerdict came. BJP would have hoped that it will pressure SS into accepting the terms of BJP and the “saffron alliance” would come together and milk the victory together. Surprisingly or foolishly, SS still didn’t budge(3/n)

So now, only way to take a moral high ground and have a possibility to come back to power was to force dissolution of assembly. At the same time, important to discredit the #ShivSena for not being true to their values by being greedy for personal ambitions(4/n)

BJP thought that once the SS forms alliance govt with arch rivals NCP-INC, the core base of SS will be disillusioned and attach to BJP when voting happens. But the alliance looked increasingly difficult to cobble together(5/n)

The first family and their coterie wanted to avoid a full public embrace of once bête noire #ShivSena and hence were dragging their feet over multiple issues. The longer these conversations went on, the lower the chance of a #MahaAgadi govt which would decimate #ShivSena (6/n)

So to give them a push, BJP played this game fully knowing they won’t have the numbers. This action acted as a catalyst and ensured any remaining doubt in the minds of INC vanished overtaken by the staunch opposition to BJP (7/n)

BJP will fail the floor test, #MahaAgadi comes to power and #ShivSena will loose its core “saffron” vote bank and #Congress will get wiped out amongst the minorities for embracing ideological arch rivals (8/n)

The #MahaAgadi govt will always have strong undercurrents and internal differences ala the Congress-JDU govt in Karnatakaand eventually fall. At that stage, fresh elections will happen and BJP will have the right to become the sole face for the “saffron” voter bank (9/n)

The decades old dependence on #ShivSena in #Maharashtra will end and BJP will come into its own in a true manner. That my friends is my view on #MaharashtraCrisis #MahaPoliticalTwist #MaharashtraPolitics (END of thread)