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So today's Reuters report again mentions the origin of the Abqaiq/Khrays attack as being 'Ahvaz Airbase.' Let's take a closer look at that. 1/10 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-attacks-iran-special-rep-idUSKBN1XZ16H
The city of Ahvaz itself has an international airport with a small military section (31.338905° 48.763860°). However, it is located very close to a large city full of cell phone camera users and perhaps not the best location for launching a secret operation. 2/10
Around 85km Southeast of Ahvaz, there is Shahid Ardestani airbase, an actual military airbase, near Omidiyeh (30.834025° 49.564275°). 3/10
What is interesting about Omidiyeh is that the MEK claimed it was the origin of the attack (yeah I know it's a bizarre cult but sometimes they do launder useful info). 4/10 https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/ncri-statements/terrorism-fundamentalism/26731-ncri-s-revelations-on-the-iranian-regime-s-attack-on-saudi-oil-installations
@AuroraIntel was the first to notice that on September 30 newly deployed air-defense systems were visible at Omidiyeh base. 5/10 https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1179499760136392710
@planetlabs sat imagery shows the systems were moved there between Sep 20 and Sep 22. The Abqayq/Khurays attack happened on Sep 14. 6/10
On October 1, Iranian media released footage of Abdolrahim Mousavi, commander in chief of the Artesh and of the Khatem ul-Anbia Air Defense branch, visiting the Omidiyeh airbase and inspecting SAM-systems there including S-300s. 7/10
So all of this could imply that the attack originated from Omidiyeh, the MEK laundered some Saudi or Western intel about it, the Iranians deployed some new SAMs to prepare for a possible counter-strike against the base and followed up their deployment with some signaling. 9/10
Of course, there are always alternative explanations. So it is far from a smoking gun but still an interesting data point to consider. 10/10
