This article is actively misleading to the point of being misinformation and the consequences of pieces like this could be real - particularly amongst voters of the early states.

That's exactly why Team Warren (effectively) worked refs to get it written. Kudos to them, but...1/ https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1198640371615580160

it doesn't make the information in it any truer or less misleading.

First let's start on timing: the topics of the racial makeup of first two states in the primary calendar & importance of diverse support for Democratic candidates have become increasingly prominent. Likely 2/

to degree that some early state voters are going to look at support black voters give in later states before making a final decision.

So it's not a coincidence that a piece now comes out that says "Here's Warren's strategy to win over black women & here's why it's working." 3/

That's important - not because it will persuade any black voters - but because it's a message sent to WHITE voters in early states to say "She's really going to do well with black voters! You can feel comfortable voting for her!"

Now, let's talk about data cited to support 4/

the thesis. It's the passage cited below. No poll data is cited, but an analysis by Axios which tracked only Q-Pac polls and black support (which they noted had MOE of 11-14%) and showed a rise in support to 20% by October.

Problem: latest Q-Pac poll in SC has black support 5/

for Warren at 8%. So, in other words, the piece's evidence that Warren's plan to win over black women is working NOW is another outlet's analysis of only one polling firm's break-out of all black voters that ends when Warren was at her peak of support...she has dropped since. 6/

Even the anecdotal evidence cited in the piece included the fact that Warren had Ayana Pressley to protect & defend her this past weekend when her event was disrupted by black school choice activists as a GOOD thing. Can anyone honestly say the fact that Warren was unable to 7/

respond herself and relied on someone else to handle the situation is a POSITIVE strategy for winning over black women?

There is simply no reason to believe that.

In other words, there is no polling data nor any real anecdotal data to back up the notion that Warren's plan 8/

to win over black women is working (and no, a few prominent allies assuring us that it's working is not the same as real evidence).

If it WERE working, the article wouldn't have to rely on such sparse data, could point to turnout at rallies in diverse state and other polling 9/

evidence. But it's nowhere to be found.

So why this article now? It's BECAUSE Warren is, in fact, doing poorly with black women relative to her polling nationally and in early states. Think about it: IF she were doing better, a "plan" to win them over wouldn't be the subject 10/

of an article in late Nov. This is aimed squarely at white voters in early states. It's actively misleading to point of misinformation, and it's a message to tell those white voters that they should feel comfortable supporting someone based on a diverse base of support that 11/

doesn't exist. It's a PR effort by Team Warren because they know it's an Achilles Heel for their campaign. In lieu of successfully building support amongst black women they work refs to spin a different story.

If there's real evidence of support, it's not in the article. /end