This thread is an update on where I think the group permutations are at for Munster. If you can't be bothered to read through the whole thing, the short version is: our chances aren't good.

Racing are now the clear favourites to progress. They are joint top on points, have two Ospreys matches left and if we do well vs Sarries, it might soften them up for Racing's last match against them.

Sarries are not doing great, but it is fixable if they do well in the double header. With so many internationals to come back, you'd suspect that they'll target us so that they at least have a shot at staying alive.

So what will get us through? Well, we will need to do well in the double header. Not only will we need to beat Sarries in Thomond, we will need a win (or at bare minimum, a draw) in the Allianz.

Just to be clear, those wouldn't be enough to give us much of a chance of winning the group. We'd probably need to win in Paris, which looks laughably unrealistic right now.

Something we'd be hoping for would be McKenzie and the Wales guys returning to boost the Ospreys in the Liberty to a big extent, but again, don't see that happening.

What can we make realistic? Well, if we're to get the result we need in the Allianz, we're going to have to make Sarries less interested in the match. That means that not only will we need to win in Thomond, we need to sicken them, make them ill at the sight of us.

But again, Sarries are tougher than most, and getting two results against them when they're fully loaded and going for you is seriously difficult. More than likely our last match vs the Ospreys is the only other win we get. The outlook's not great.