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It’s important to understand that censorship and pervasive propaganda result in political elites who have woefully bad information and thus make bad choices. https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1198814005126676481
Pinochet allowed the referendum because he was sure he would win it.
Authoritarian states collect systematically bad information about the scale and shape of the opposition due to widespread preference falsification and “unspeakable” truths.
Another reason why liberalism wins!
Authoritarian states collect systematically bad information about the scale and shape of the opposition due to widespread preference falsification and “unspeakable” truths.
Another reason why liberalism wins!
Let me add:
This problem afflicts Chinese economic policy making too! China is not being managed by super geniuses deftly pulling the levers of society to maximize growth!
Chill out folks and let China reap the economic whirlwind they have sown.
This problem afflicts Chinese economic policy making too! China is not being managed by super geniuses deftly pulling the levers of society to maximize growth!
Chill out folks and let China reap the economic whirlwind they have sown.
All the people responding “election of 2016”... folks Trump’s election was a surprise because it was NOT well-predicted by the best available evidence! If you think calling a Trump win in 2016 was a smart bet, you’re crazy!
But low probability events do sometimes occur!
But low probability events do sometimes occur!
Any reasonable read of the data for 2016 would have told you Trump had a low chance of victory. And the final vote tallies cake in VERY close to the predicted levels. The geographic distribution gave him a narrow margin in a few states. He pulled out an improbable win!
The situation in authoritarian states is quite different.
NO poll suggested the government party had ANY chance at holding their seat share in HK. The huge change in opinion was obvious across every possible metric.
And yet Beijing thought they were going to win!
NO poll suggested the government party had ANY chance at holding their seat share in HK. The huge change in opinion was obvious across every possible metric.
And yet Beijing thought they were going to win!
The literature on preference falsification, suppressed identity, authoritarian instability, and the susceptibility of non democratic states to “mistakes” is mile high. A huge share of democratization events are “accidents” like Chile 1989, or what we just saw in HK.
The reason these accidents happen so frequently in authoritarian societies is because when you don’t let people speak their true beliefs or don’t tolerate adverse information, *its very hard to get good info*. And for all it’s flaws, the US media ecosystem is extremely diverse!
When Trump won, it took all of 30 seconds for an entire range of thought to be activated to offer explanations, and we’ve had years of re-examination of what happened. It’s a system rich in competing information.
And to all the people being like “WELL THE US HAS CRNSORSHIP TOO”
Get off my lawn. Thank your lucky stars for the open information economy you inhabit. Few places in the world, not the EU, not Russia, not China, not Africa or LatAm, have as diverse and open a debate as the US.
Get off my lawn. Thank your lucky stars for the open information economy you inhabit. Few places in the world, not the EU, not Russia, not China, not Africa or LatAm, have as diverse and open a debate as the US.
