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Game Over for Dems: Rasmussen, Emerson Numbers on Black Voter Approval for Trump https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2019/11/24/game-over-for-dems-rasmussen-emerson-numbers-on-black-voter-approval-for-trump/
1) Two things are important about these numbers. DO NOT believe that Trump is going to get 34% of the black vote. This is insanity.
1) Two things are important about these numbers. DO NOT believe that Trump is going to get 34% of the black vote. This is insanity.
2) DO believe that Trump is doing far, far better with blacks than any Republican in 40 years.
HarrisX, Morning Consult, and other polls followed by @SHEPMJS show he is somewhere between 16% and 26% approval.
HarrisX, Morning Consult, and other polls followed by @SHEPMJS show he is somewhere between 16% and 26% approval.
3) Now, you "could" average Emerson, Ras, and the rest for some number in the high 20s, or you could more likely conclude that Trump is probably inching up from that 16% floor toward the 20% range.
4) And that's HUGE. You must understand that 20% approval will NOT equal . . .
4) And that's HUGE. You must understand that 20% approval will NOT equal . . .
4) contd. . . . 20% vote for Trump. But I guaran-damn-tee you that he will do significantly better with black voters in 2020 than he did in 2016; and equally important, he will cause many more % worth of doubters to stay home.
I think that cumulative # will approach 18-20.
I think that cumulative # will approach 18-20.
5) And if that is the case? Trump won't need to worry at all about PA, MI, NC, or FL, and will likely push on VA.
6) You will say "the GOP didn't do well in VA in the last election."
7) Correctomundo. Nor in the TN or LA gov races.
Was Trump on any of those ballots?
6) You will say "the GOP didn't do well in VA in the last election."
7) Correctomundo. Nor in the TN or LA gov races.
Was Trump on any of those ballots?
8) I have been arguing that the #s you see for Trump do NOT necessarily translate to other GOP candidates . . . however. . .
9) In MS, black turnout was down, and in the two "blackest" districts, it was down 8% and 11%! Those are whopping numbers with Trump not on the ballot.
9) In MS, black turnout was down, and in the two "blackest" districts, it was down 8% and 11%! Those are whopping numbers with Trump not on the ballot.
10) So, until you actually have an election with Trump, it will be impossible to prove one way or another. I don't think GOP performance relates much at all to TRUMP performance among blacks.
African-Americans are still evaluating Rs to see if they are "like Trump."
African-Americans are still evaluating Rs to see if they are "like Trump."
11) In VA and TN, they didn't see anyone that was "like Trump." In the 2018 AZ and OH senate races they didn't see anyone who was "like Trump." So why bother?
12) If this dynamic proves true--that the black vote is eroding by staying home, but will turn out for Trump . . .
12) If this dynamic proves true--that the black vote is eroding by staying home, but will turn out for Trump . . .
12) contd . . . then the suburban snowflake vote will be irrelevant. Trump will have realigned the major parties to where the GOP is the party of America First and workers, and the DemoKKKrats are the party of the rich, the uber-poor, and the victims.
